flu virus
© Vladislav Kochelaevskiy / Alamy Stock PhotoThe last flu pandemic was in 2009
The NHS is braced for the worst flu season in its history, amid fears that overcrowded hospitals will be unable to cope. The head of the health service has warned that "pressures are going to be real" as he warned that influenza levels are expected to be high.

Simon Stevens said Australia and New Zealand - who are just coming out of their winter - have had a "heavy flu season" with many hospitals struggling to deal with demand.

And he said scientists would now re-examine the vaccines amid fears that the current jabs may not hold off the infections.

Health service regulators have already warned that hospitals are extremely busy, with too many beds blocked for lack of social care.

In recent years, the NHS has seen ever long waits over winter, with some of the worst waiting times on record last winter.

However, for almost a decade the NHS has escaped a heavy flu season, with the last pandemic seen in 2009.

Mr Stevens told a conference in Manchester: "For the next three, four, five months the top priority for every leader, every part of the NHS is ensuring that the NHS goes into winter in a strong a position as possible.

Simon Stevens flu jab
© PASimon Stevens said the jab would be reviewed
"We know we're going to have more hospital beds open, we know we are better prepared, but we also know that the pressures are going to be real."

He suggested the indications from the southern hemisphere were worrying.

"The signs from Australia and New Zealand - who are just coming out of their winter - are that it has been a heavy flu season and many of the hospitals down there have struggled to cope.

"We know that there is a great deal of work to be done over the next six to eight weeks with our partners in local authorities to put the NHS on the right footing for the winter ahead."

Scientists in Australia have warned that the country is experiencing its worst flu season on record.

Australia has reported 98,000 confirmed cases of the flu this season - more than double the rate it was this time last year. There are also twice as many people hospitalised.

Last month Professor Paul Van Buynder from Gold Coast Health and the Immunisation Coalition said: "It looks like we will again get the greatest number of notified cases in Australia we've ever seen."

"I'm confident that this is not just the biggest recorded year in our data but it's also the largest flu outbreak that we've seen for quite some time," he said.

Mr Stevens suggested the signs from Australia were alarming.

"The signs from the southern hemisphere winter have been that flu has been much higher and it has been the variety that puts the most pressure on the old people's services like care homes," he said.

"The World Health Organisation is reviewing the vaccines and if that reproduces itself here over this coming winter that is going to mean much more pressure on GP services and hospitals."

Scientists are concerned about "virological drift" where flu evolves so that even if a vaccine works in one country, it may not be effective months later.


Comment: This isn't the only problem with the effectiveness of vaccines. See: Whistleblowers tell the truth about vaccine safety and effectiveness


In 2015, the jab given to millions of Britons was far less effective than usual, because it failed to match the dominant strain.

He said the NHS was closely examining the experiences in Australia and New Zealand, where winter falls around six months earlier.

"We are reviewing the Australia and New Zealand experience, where hospitals have closed to new patients and reported very long waiting times," he said.

"The evidence is we are likely to have a more pressurised flu season this year," he said.

NHS chiefs have been asked to free up more than 2,000 beds in an attempt to help hospitals cope with extra demand, he said.

In some parts of the country, clearly there are real pressures, so we are using the next six to eight weeks to really be clear what the plan there needs to be," he said.

Mr Stevens said the main type of flu to cause a threat was the H3 strain.

Why is the NHS under so much pressure?
  • An ageing population. There are one million more people over the age of 65 than five years ago. This has caused a surge in demand for medical care
  • Cuts to budgets for social care. While the NHS budget has been protected, social services for home helps and other care have fallen by 11 per cent in five years. This has caused record levels of "bedblocking"; people with no medical need to be in hospital are stuck there because they can't be supported at home
  • Staff shortages. While hospital doctor and nurse numbers have risen over the last decade, they have not kept pace with the rise in demand. Meanwhile 2016 saw record numbers of GP practices close, displacing patients on to A&E departments as they seek medical advice
  • Lifestyle factors. Drinking too much alcohol, smoking, a poor diet with not enough fruit and vegetables and not doing enough exercise are all major reasons for becoming unwell and needing to rely on our health services. Growing numbers of overweight children show this problem is currently set to continue

But he warned: "You get various subtypes and you also get virological drift where the flu evolves during the season."

The latest update from health officials in Australia says there have been more than two and a half times the number of laboratory confirmed notifications of influenza reported this year when compared with the same period last year.

The season started particularly early, and the flu has hit those over 80 and children aged five to nine particularly hard, officials said.

To date, the vaccine appears to be a "moderate to good match," officials said. However, the strain of flu can mutate as it spreads across the globe.

In 2015, the jab worked for just one in three cases who were given it in England.

It contributed to the biggest spike in winter deaths since the 1960s, with more than 16,000 excess deaths.

Free flu jabs are offered to all over 65s, pregnant women, young children, those with long-term conditions such as asthma and all frontline NHS staff. Health officials attempt to amend the vaccine around six months before autumn, based on early indications from the southern hemisphere.

But in the past, predictions have gone "horribly wrong" public health officials have admitted, as the forecast has to be made very early in the Australian flu season.

Health officials say it is too early to say whether the scale of the flu in Australia and New Zealand can be blamed on low effectiveness of the vaccine, or is simply bad luck.

Last month Jim Mackey, chief executive of NHS Improvement, warned that the health service was not in a good situation to cope with extra pressures.

He said: "We need to get serious about the bed situation. Our hospitals are very busy already. Last winter we ended up opening over 4,500 beds at the busiest times, mostly in an unplanned and unproductive manner.

"Making those decisions late in the day is bad for patients, hospitals and it costs the NHS more in the long run."