Serbia and IMF meeting
Serbia's growth could pick up further next year after strong performance in the first half pointed to a faster-than-expected recovery, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday, but warned the government against the temptation to overspend.

In its quarterly review, the IMF said it was crucial the country press on with public sector structural reforms as part of its 1.2 billion euro loan agreement in order not to derail a strong recovery.

"Potential growth could be doubled by the end of the programme period," country representative Sebastian Sosa told reporters, adding that public sector companies and utilities needed further streamlining.

Despite what he described as a "rosy" short-term outlook, he said the government should resist calls to loosen fiscal purse strings after better-than-expected deficit and growth figures, given the risky macro environment and high public sector debt.

"The upcoming mission will focus on the budget for next year and we will discuss potential issues of wages and pensions," he said. "We will take into account the strong overperformance of the fiscal, account and the need for the decline of public debt in medium term," Sosa added.


Comment: Public sector should shed 6,500 jobs by end of year - IMF
That is less than originally planned but, given an over-performance of revenue, it will not pose a risk to fiscal targets for this year, he said.

Addressing a press conference at the National Bank of Serbia, Sosa said a net reduction of positions in the public sector from the end of 2014 to May 2016 amounted to roughly 16,000.

"This has certainly helped contain fiscal costs," he said.

He said any fall-out from a Brexit-led European downturn would hurt Serbia's growth prospects, as could a resumption of the flows of migrants fleeing war in the Middle East, which burdened governments across the region last autumn.

While the economic impact of the ongoing post-coup crackdown in Turkey also posed a risk to Serbia, the scale of the impact would be limited given the more modest size of Turkey's economy compared to Europe's, he added.

He said the IMF, which has repeatedly urged Serbia to prune bloated public sector companies, was satisfied with a decision earlier this week to increase retail electricity prices by less than the lender had wanted.


Comment: Serbia hikes electricity prices after IMF demand
Aug 31 Serbia will increase retail electricity prices by 3.8 percent, Energy Minister Aleksandar Antic said on Wednesday, announcing a rise of about half the level demanded by the International Monetary Fund in return for a loan.

Antic told reporters the price hike was the "smallest possible". Last year's 12 percent increase was also short of the level demanded by the international lender.

The IMF confirmed an earlier forecast that the economy would expand by 2.5 percent this year and by 2.8 percent in 2017, while the budget deficit would continue to fall, from 2.5 percent in 2016 to 2.2 percent next year.