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"Turkey has recently made a series of major steps with regard to the Syrian crisis and anti-Daesh fight," he said, citing remarks of the country's new prime minister as an example. In May, Binali Yildirim said that Turkey wanted to have more friends and needed to reduce the number of its enemies.
Turkey's previous prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, has largely been viewed as the architect of Ankara's strategy on Syria that was focused on ousting al-Assad and helping Syrian rebels come to power. This approach seems to have been replaced by something completely different. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has recently made overtures to Moscow and Tel Aviv.
Comment: After meeting with his Russian counterpart Lavrov, Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters: "IS [Daesh] attacks Turkey because Turkey directly fights IS [Daesh], including by helping the coalition and hindering foreign terrorists. We are truly killing the ideology of this terrorist organization." He added:
"Unfortunately, the situation in Syria is not very promising, but if we work together and if a sustainable ceasefire is in place, the humanitarian situation will get better as well," Cavusoglu told reporters following talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. "A political solution is the only right decision. Therefore, talks in Geneva should be resumed as soon as possible. We have agreed on close coordination with Russia on deliveries of humanitarian aid and on responding to all other challenges in Syria," he added.Lavrov added: "We can discuss everything in the framework of our bilateral dialogue, even the most difficult issues, including the task of preventing the terrorist infiltration into Syria from abroad, the task of preventing the use of Turkish territory in support of terrorist organizations in Syria."
"Pivot" to Russia
Erdogan's decision to mend ties with Russia and Israel is part of Turkey's new foreign policy vision, Professor Demir added. But it appears to have come at a cost. "Daesh has clearly been deeply concerned with these developments. [These worries] played a major part in making a decision to carry out" the latest terrorist attack in Istanbul.
Comment: The U.S. deep state has clearly been deeply concerned with these development as well.
The suicide bombing, the first of its kind at a Turkish airport, took place on June 28, leaving 43 killed and more than 230 wounded. Although Daesh has not claimed responsibility for the assault, authorities and experts agree that indirect indicators suggest that the brutal group is behind it.
Al-Monitor's columnist Metin Gurcan suggested that Turkey's drastic foreign policy change could have been a major factor, echoing Professor Demir's assessment.
"This group's motive could have been to intimidate Ankara because of its Syrian policy choices and sharp U-turns in relations with Russia and Israel, sending Ankara the message: 'Watch out. If you push us, you will pay a high price,'" he said.
Daesh's "multilevel, hybrid, complex structure"
Both experts also pointed out that terrorist attacks in Turkey are increasingly carried out by local Daesh cells that "are not fully under the hierarchical command-control chain of IS," as Gurcan put it. Professor Demir described these individual groups as "more flexible."
Comment: The farther away from Syria and Iraq, the less likely the chance for any type of actual 'blowback'. As a source of Daesh fighters, Turkey is right there in the middle of it. So Turkey has a choice: either get serious about fighting Daesh, as Russia has been asking the world for months, or face retribution, both from Gladio B-directed groups and Daesh nutjobs who aren't even aware they're doing the West's bidding.
In his opinion, Turkey and the rest of the world are not prepared to deal with this type of threat.
In this context, "we need to come up with a new anti-Daesh strategy," Professor Demir noted. The terrorist group "has a multilevel, hybrid structure that is more complex than that of al-Qaeda. It's therefore extremely hard to tackle these groups employing traditional methods that were efficient against al-Qaeda."
"New language, new vision and new approach"
The analyst called for a comprehensive strategy that would include political and cultural components in addition to military and law enforcement efforts.
"We need to understand how Daesh and similar terrorist organizations recruit young people," he said. We also need to find out "what role political and cultural factors, as well as religious education and social networks, play in this process."
Professor Demir maintained that "we need a new language, new vision and new approach" to tackling Daesh.
Comment: At this point, Turkey is closer than ever to taking the opportunity Russia has been presenting to terrorist-supporting nations in the West: "stop supporting terrorists, help us fight what you created, don't worry about fessing up to what you've done, just be part of the solution and we won't hold it against you." They have a convenient scapegoat for past blunders (Davutoglu), plenty incentives (the perceived Kurdish threat, economic downturn, loss of international support) and, presumably, tons of intel that would actually be beneficial to turn on Daesh. See SOTT's coverage of the 'pivot to Russia':