[Note for TomDispatch Readers: Here's a book recommendation for this Egyptian moment. Get your hands on Jonathan Schell's The Unconquerable World: Power, Nonviolence, and the Will of the People. You won't find a word about the events of the last few weeks. Little wonder, since it was published in 2003, at the height of American hubris over the use of force in Iraq, and just happened to be about eight years ahead of its time. Nonetheless, its look at the history of violence in the context of the great nonviolent uprisings of the twentieth century remains eye-opening and, better yet, Schell got it right. The Obama administration should have ditched all its intelligence and read his book!
And by the way, keep in mind that if you use a TomDispatch link or book-cover image to go to Amazon and buy this book or anything else whatsoever, TD gets a modest cut of your purchase. It's a fine way to contribute regularly to this site at no extra cost to you. Tom]
Here's the truth of it: You don't need an $80-billion-plus budget and a morass of 17 intelligence agencies to look at the world and draw a few intelligent conclusions. Nor do you need $80 billion-plus and that same set of agencies to be caught off-guard by developments on our sometimes amazing planet.
Last Thursday, Leon Panetta, director of the CIA, assured a House Intelligence panel that he had "received reports" that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was likely leavin' town on the next train for Yuma. When that didn't happen, the Agency clarified the situation. Those "reports" hadn't, in fact, been secret intelligence updates, but "news accounts." In other words, billions of bucks later, Panetta was undoubtedly watching Al Jazeera (or the equivalent) just like the rest of us peasants.
After 30 years as Washington's eyes and ears in Cairo, it turns out that the CIA didn't have an insider's clue about Mubarak's psychology. No wonder our fabulous "community" of intelligence analysts and operatives was napping when history came calling. And maybe it's fortunate for us that the future can't be bought, that no matter how much money a declining superpower puts on the barrelhead, it's as likely to be surprised as any of us; in fact, deeply entrenched in the stalest of Washington thinking, our intelligence agencies may have been even more surprised than most of us by what the future had in store. In our startlingly brain-dead American world, that realization in itself should have felt like a breath of fresh air as one startling Egyptian event after another unfolded.
SOTT
SIGNS
OF THE
TIMES
OF THE
TIMES
Welcome to Sott.net
The World for People who Think
