© Avi Ohayon/GPOPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi at a joint press conference in the president's house in New Delhi, India, on January 15, 2018. (
There are rumors of war between Pakistan and India. The casus belli is the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22, 2025.
The attack was on tourists near Pahalgam in the Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir region. Five armed militants attacked visitors in the Baisaran Valley, killing 26 civilians (mostly Hindu men) and injuring 20 others. The attackers used AK-47s and M4 carbines and reportedly singled out victims based on religion, asking some to recite the Islamic creed, and shot them when they could not do so. Among the victims was a local Muslim pony operator who tried to intervene and was killed. All the attackers escaped, and have not been caught.
A vague and little-known group, the Resistance Front (TRF), which some say is an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), initially claimed responsibility but later retracted the claim. Indian authorities identified three of the attackers: two Pakistani nationals and one local from Kashmir, all linked to LeT. Investigations revealed that one Pakistani militant had previously served in Pakistan's paramilitary forces before joining LeT. The Indian government offered a bounty for information leading to the capture or killing of the suspects.
The attack significantly escalated tensions between India and Pakistan. India accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism, suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, expelled Pakistani diplomats, closed borders, and shut airspace to Pakistani airlines. Pakistan denied the accusations and retaliated by suspending the Simla Agreement, restricting trade, and closing airspace. Border skirmishes erupted along the Line of Control shortly after the attack.
Though the attackers were not caught, India said that it has identified some of them, by using intelligence gathering, investigations, and interrogations of local aides.
Indian security agencies identified three of the four suspected attackers. They say two are Pakistani nationals and one is a local resident of Indian-administered Kashmir. The main identified attacker is one Hashim Musa, who India says is a member of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). Indian authorities also identified local facilitators — around 15 local Kashmiri overground workers (OGWs) — who helped the attackers with logistics, reconnaissance, shelter, and possibly arms supplies. Electronic surveillance, including phone activity and chat intercepts, helped pinpoint these local aides and their involvement in assisting the attackers.
The identification of the attackers was based on intelligence inputs, electronic surveillance, interrogation of detained suspects, and verification of the backgrounds of key terrorists like Hashim Musa, with India linking him to Pakistan's military and LeT leadership.
Since India wants revenge, and since India has identified the leader of the attackers as a Pakistani, this is being drummed by the Modi government as a strong enough reason to launch a retaliatory attack on Pakistan, which will mean war between the two nations.
But here it is important to ask the important question. Who has benefitted from this attack? There is no reason that suggests Pakistan would want to provoke India by a pointless attack in a volatile region. Pakistan knows that a war will mean needless devastation for its people who are already some of the poorest in the region. And Pakistan also knows that it cannot win against India, given the latter's size.
Comment: Doubtless India would also suffer if matters spiral out of control: both countries are nuclear powers.
But what about India? Does it benefit from this attack? Consider the actions that India took right after the attack, based on its allegations.
The attack prompted intense public pressure within India for a strong response against terrorism, allowing Prime Minister Modi's government to justify and consolidate political support for tougher security measures and actions against Pakistan.
India's Cabinet Committee on Security, led by Modi, granted operational freedom to the armed forces to respond decisively, potentially allowing India to neutralize terrorist threats and restore deterrence against cross-border terrorism.
India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty and closed the Attari-Wagah border crossing, which disrupts trade and diplomatic relations with Pakistan. These moves signal India's willingness to escalate pressure diplomatically and economically on Pakistan.
Now, let us consider [another] aspect to this tragedy.
India and Israel have had a close intelligence and security cooperation relationship since the 1980s. India's Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), established in 1968, developed deep ties with Israel's Mossad early on, focusing on shared threats such as terrorism and hostile neighbors.
The collaboration between RAW and Mossad began in the 1980s, before formal diplomatic relations were established in 1992, and has included intelligence sharing, counterterrorism training, and technology transfer.
Israel has provided India with advanced surveillance technology, including drones (such as the Heron UAV), sensors, and cyber defense training, which have been crucial for monitoring sensitive borders with Pakistan and China.
Israel helped India implement the Central Monitoring System (CMS), a mass electronic surveillance infrastructure, with Israeli firms like Verint Systems playing a role in its development.
The defense and intelligence partnership has expanded to include joint development of AI and weapons systems, reflecting a strategic synergy in facing common security challenges.
Controversies such as the Pegasus spyware allegations have raised concerns about the use of Israeli technology in Indian surveillance, but the overall cooperation remains strong.
That is a very deep involvement of Israel with India.
On the other hand, Israel and Pakistan do not have formal diplomatic relations, and their relationship is marked by longstanding political and ideological differences. The primary reasons for Israel's unfavorable view of Pakistan are rooted in Pakistan's consistent opposition to Israel's legitimacy and its support for the Palestinian cause, and its opposition to the genocide in Gaza.
Pakistan has never recognized Israel as a sovereign state and voted against the 1947 United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine, opposing the creation of Israel.
Pakistan views Israel as a colonial enterprise established through British policies that divided local populations, and it argues that a nation-state founded on religious identity like Israel cannot be secular or fair to minorities.
Pakistan has been a vocal critic of Israeli policies, especially regarding Gaza and the Palestinians, often organizing demonstrations and political rhetoric against Israel. The Pakistani government has even labeled Israeli leaders as war criminals and supports boycotts of companies seen as supporting Israel.
Israel sees Pakistan as a significant Islamic state with nuclear capability and influence in Islamic forums such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Despite the lack of formal ties, there have been discreet contacts due to Pakistan's strategic importance, but overt relations are hindered by Pakistan's public stance against Israel.
The animosity is also fueled by Pakistan's desire to align with the broader Islamic world and maintain solidarity with Palestinians, which serves both ideological and domestic political purposes.
On the other hand, Iran and Pakistan have historically been friends with close cultural, religious, and historical ties. Iran was the first country to officially recognize Pakistan's independence in 1947, and Pakistan was among the first to recognize the Islamic Republic of Iran after the 1979 revolution, illustrating mutual respect and solidarity.
Economically, Iran and Pakistan maintain significant trade relations and have cooperated on projects like the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, although U.S. sanctions on Iran have hindered progress. Both countries also cooperate on combating drug trafficking and insurgency in border areas.
Politically, Pakistan often tries to balance its relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which sometimes puts it in a delicate position. Both countries share concerns about stability in Afghanistan and have sought to promote peace there.
Any friend of Iran is an enemy of Israel.
Israel expressed strong support to India following the Pahalgam attack. Israel's Ambassador to India, Reuven Azar, emphasized Israel's backing of India's right to self-defense and sovereignty in responding to the attack, stating that India knows what to do and has the right to take necessary defensive measures.
More importantly, Israel has drawn parallels between the Pahalgam attack and the Hamas terror attack in Israel in October 2023, noting that terror organizations are increasingly collaborating and inspiring each other. Israeli intelligence next conveniently revealed to India that senior Hamas leaders met with Pakistani terrorist groups in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) two months before the Pahalgam attack. The point was to demonstrate the extent of Hamas networks, and to indicate that Pakistan is like a terrorist state.
Comment: Trust Israeli hasbara to not miss a trick.
While Israel has not publicly disclosed operational details of its assistance, it stands ready to support India with intelligence sharing, technology, and counterterrorism cooperation as needed. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar publicly stood with India in its fight against terrorism, condemning the attack and offering solidarity.
Then, there is the ongoing call to rule Jammu and Kashmir along the Israel model. This "Israel model" for Jammu and Kashmir refers to a controversial approach advocated by some Indian strategists and officials, which draws parallels between India's control over Kashmir and Israel's occupation and settlement policies in Palestinian territories. This model involves prolonged military occupation, demographic engineering, and strict control measures including surveillance and policing, similar to those used by Israel in the West Bank and Gaza.
Indian law enforcement and military have been urged to adopt "Israel-like" retaliation and counter-insurgency tactics in Kashmir, especially after attacks on civilians. This involves heavy militarization and often harsh crackdowns on dissent.
There are calls and actions towards issuing domicile certificates to non-locals and encouraging settlement by non-Kashmiri populations in Jammu and Kashmir, akin to Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian areas. This is seen as a form of demographic engineering aimed at altering the region's ethnic and religious composition.
India has already adapted Israeli surveillance, drone, and digital repression technologies for use in Kashmir, reflecting a shared infrastructure of state control and repression.
Both Israel and India are ethnonationalist states that normalize prolonged occupation and criminalize dissent in contested regions.
The call for an "Israel model" has sparked outrage among Kashmiris, Pakistan, and international observers, who view it as a justification for human rights violations, settler colonialism, and potential ethnic cleansing. Pakistani officials have condemned India's adoption of Israeli-style settlement policies as violations of UN resolutions.
What better to make Jammu and Kashmir the "Palestine" of the Sub-Continent than a "October 7-like" attack. This is something that Modi has always wanted. Why? Because in Hindu nationalist (Hindutva) ideology Muslims are worse than demons who are fit only for slaughter. Modi's political party actively encourages this Islamophobia. This form of Islamophobia is deeply embedded in the political and social fabric of India, especially under the influence of parties like Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and affiliated groups. Ridding India of all Muslims and Christians is a very old Hindutva ambition.
Such Hindu nationalists see Muslims as a threat to Hindu culture and nationhood, and are portrayed as a demographic threat due to perceived higher birth rates, linking this to historical grievances such as the Islamic conquest of India and the partition in 1947.
Islamophobic narratives have been used to justify violence against Muslims, with numerous incidents of communal riots, targeted attacks, and systemic discrimination documented since independence. These acts are often politically motivated and linked to electoral strategies of Hindu nationalist parties.
Anti-Muslim hate speech and propaganda have surged in recent years, including incendiary music tracks and social media campaigns that fuel Islamophobic sentiments, especially after events like terrorist attacks blamed on Muslims. These campaigns call for exclusion, violence, and even ethnic cleansing of Muslims from India.
Hindu nationalist groups such as the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and the Vishva Hindu Parishad (VHP) play significant roles in spreading Islamophobic rhetoric and inciting violence.
Islamophobia and its spread are a specialty of the Mossad, and it has found fertile ground in India.
Thus, who benefits from the attack in Pahalgam?
If India attacks Pakistan, Iran is right next door, and Israel can easily gets its long-awaited attack via Pakistan, given the friendship between the two Islamic nations. Plus, Modi has his excuse to turn Jammu and Kashmir into his very own "Palestine." And, by attacking Pakistan, he ensures his own political popularity. Modi needs to become important again to his followers, and popular. Islamophobia is the truest way to achieve both, as Israel well knows.
We have long known that the USA and Israel train and fund jihadists in Pakistan, who are often used to keep the Pakistani rulers, and Central Asia, in check. It is hardly a stretch that such "expertise" was used in Pahalgam to bring about the desired results. In other words, a perfect false flag.
It is a page right out of Bibi Netanyahu's very own playbook.
Comment: A compelling analysis. Over the years, India has been very aggressive with respect to Jammu and Kashmir.