© New Eastern Outlook
Ursula - The PANIC Button!
One look at the mainstream media assures us that EU President Ursula von der Leyen and her handlers are in deep panic mode. Take this Financial Times report as a case in point. British Journalist and Barack Obama cheerleader Gideon Rachman claims Donald Trump's policies toward Europe have already caused "fundamental steps toward greater European unity." As you might expect, Rachman cherry-picks some polls to prove his claims. According to polls in France, Germany, and the UK (naturally), most people see Trump as a threat. Naturally, the polls are from the UK's YouGov truth tellers, primarily focused on Western European citizens.
What FT reports is, of course, not the complete story? Let's forget that this data only comes from a small sampling of Western Europeans. Some key questions collide with the World Economic Forum altar boy's thesis. First and foremost, when asked if they'd agree to be taxed more to build a giant European military, the majority of respondents replied not just no, but hell no. The same holds true for Europe, which borrowed more to fund a new European war machine. The numbers are here (PDF). Interestingly, only the British respondents thought their country was spending too little on defense (46%). On the other hand, the Italians believe their government is spending too much already (41%).
Here, two or more significant variables have yet to be considered. First, the devastating blows to an already weak EU economy if Trump does launch a trade war would undoubtedly drive a giant VW axle in the hearts of every German. Secondly, dear Ursula's pledge of hundreds of billions for a spanking new EU army is not doable even with massive borrowing. The EU is already nearly $20 trillion in debt. Austerity in poorer EU nations has already drowned the hopes of hundreds of millions of people. And Romania becoming a dictatorship by annulment of the will of the people has only made matters worse.
Money from Air?
Let's look at the economy first. This report from POLITICO.eu in December 2024 was a crystal ball look from Matthew Karnitschnig in Berlin. The piece's title, "Europe's economic apocalypse is now," predicted the looming disaster before Trump even took office. To paraphrase, Karmitschnig said at the time:
"European capitals, already struggling to rein in surging deficits amid dwindling tax revenue, will face even greater financial strains, which could trigger further political and social upheaval."The analyst goes on to unveil the real problem with the European economy. Trump's tariffs would only be an aggravating symptom of a much more chronic economic disease. Karnitschnig, uractiv's Editor-in-Chief, says the foundation of Europe's economy is wobbling on a shaky foundation. And he's not the only expert saying this. Holly Elyatt, CNBC correspondent (and soon-to-be Elon Musk employee?) focusing on European macroeconomics and politics, pointed out recently:
"Economists say the trajectory for both countries is worrying, warning that the absence of growth, fiscal imbalances and political intransigence could lead to decline and a loss of standing for Europe, as a whole."Solidarity - Poof!
Some other takeaways include that Europe is a decade or more behind Russia, the United States, and China in innovation, particularly militarily. The Russians now have hypersonic weapons that, with a first strike, can destroy the entire European nuclear arsenal at sea and on land with almost zero response time. Add to this the numbers from the British survey when people in countries like Turkey were asked if their soldiers should defend France or Spain, for instance. Looking at the responses, it is clear that some members of the NATO bloc are not keen to fight for some of their comrades. Interestingly, no one seems interested in rescuing Italy should an attack be made on that country. Also, very few people in the survey believed the U.S. would aid the Baltic States should Russia attack.
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy recently reported, estimating that the Europeans would have to mobilize 300,000 troops and spend an additional $250 billion annually to match Russia. However, the institute's figures and analysis do not add up if the sinking EU economy and political upheaval are tallied. An America-Russia reset would essentially turn Europe into a gigantic travel destination, subject to the whim of more prosperous nations and alliances. No one has figured the BRICS into the equation. China, Iran, India, and other players in the new multipolar order are also neglected in these calculations.
In a paper from 2024 entitled "Re-evaluating the East-West divide in the European Union," Clara Volintiru, Director of the Bucharest Office of the German Marshall Fund and the Black Sea Trust (BST), examined the broader political backdrop of democratic backsliding and new geopolitical developments where EU unity are concerned. She and her colleagues highlight the deeper divide that economics or Trump upheavals cause. One argument goes like this:
"While we acknowledge that the EU has been instrumental in bringing peace and prosperity to Europe, this collection nevertheless argues that the severity, duration, and intractability of the East-West divide poses a real threat to European integration in the medium- and long run. This argument unfolds as follows. First, despite robust economic growth and some degree of socio-politic."The researchers also point to the "pendulum effect," where opinions and policy swing from solidarity to nationalism (in my view). The author rightly questions the purpose of the EU if perfect integration cannot be achieved. Trump's apparent onslaught against the liberal world order adds mighty weight to that pendulum.
Reader Comments