UK Transport Secretary
© Kirsty Wigglesworth /APOn Monday, the Transport Secretary also announced plans for a pre-departure testing regime and raised prospect of some 'quarantine-free' travel
The 14-day quarantine introduced by the Government is the least effective of all strategies to prevent the spread of Covid into the community, a groundbreaking study has found.

The research showed the longer the quarantine, the higher the rates of people not complying and so the greater the risk of an infected person spreading the virus into the community, according to the research by Oxera and Edge Health, scientists who have worked for the NHS and Government.

The study is the first to take into account the impact of likely non-compliance depending on when people in quarantine take a Covid test to escape self-isolation.

It found the most effective strategy for preventing further transmission of coronavirus was testing arrivals three days into quarantine and freeing them from it if the results were negative.

This minimised the number of days that potentially infectious people were in the community by 60 per cent. That compared with 53 per cent if they were tested after five days in quarantine and 45 per cent after seven days.

However, the 14-day quarantine was by far the lowest and least effective as it only captured 25 per cent of those who could spread the disease to other people because of the higher rates of non-compliance over the two weeks.

Even those tested on arrival at the airport - which the Government has ruled out because of the alleged failure to detect asymptomatic travellers - had lower onward transmission rates into the community, with the chances reduced by 51 per cent.

The calculations were based on modelling, confirmed by the Government's own SAGE advisers, that as few as 28 per cent of asymptomatic individuals comply with quarantine, and just 71 per cent of those with symptoms. By contrast, Public Health England assumed a compliance rate of 100 per cent.

The report comes as the Government's testing taskforce, chaired by Grant Shapps, the Transport Secretary, and Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, is due to report to the Prime Minister this week.

It is understood Mr Shapps favours a test at five days, reducing quarantining to almost a third of the current 14 days, but could face a backlash from medics within Government. Seventh day testing is also being considered.

Shai Weiss, chief executive of Virgin Atlantic, said: "This new modelling provides yet more evidence that the Government is significantly underestimating the efficacy of passenger testing.

"But it also shows that the current 14-day quarantine policy is fundamentally flawed in ignoring human behaviour and compliance with the rules.

"With the aviation industry all but grounded since March, it's essential that the UK Government's Global Travel Taskforce acts swiftly to ensure that a robust passenger testing regime is in place in the UK by the start of December."