© Getty Images/Maja HitijGerman Chancellor Angela Merkel
I happened to take a taxi home yesterday. The taxi driver, with an appearance of Bill Murray, was very sociable: during the trip, as is often the case, we touched on all topics - from the weather to blondes at the wheel.

At some point, the news was playing in the background on the radio.

After the story about the poisoning of Aleksey Navalny, Nord Stream 2, and possible EU sanctions, the taxi driver shook his head and said thoughtfully: "Yes, mother got ensnared..."

"What mother?" I asked.

What do you mean 'what mother'?" asked the taxi driver. "The same Angela Merkel. Do you know why Navalny was extradited to Germany? I will explain."

Then, within a quarter of an hour, the taxi driver gave me a very coherent political science version of what happened, worthy of study in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and MGIMO, in which there were answers to all the questions that bugged me.

In general, it was like this.

At the beginning of August, everyone was preparing for the election in Belarus - Belarus, Russia, and the EU countries. There was a gambling fight and everyone bet on their candidate.

But I must warn you at once that you and I have only observed the visible part of the iceberg, and the undercurrents were not known to everyone.

Moscow and Minsk defiantly quarrelled, cursed at each other, and dragged each other by the moustache, creating the illusion of a complete break in relations. It was necessary!

Satisfied and relaxed, Europe rubbed its hands and already imagined that in the near future it would kick the "last dictator", plant a Belarusian Guaidó in Minsk, and get a tasty morsel.

An election was held. Everything came to a standstill.

Without waiting for the results, on the signal of the Polish provocateur NEXTA, the white-red-white opposition rushed into battle.

At first, everything went according to plan. Crowds poured into the streets, threatened police, officials, and journalists, and clashes and strikes began. The Belarusian ambassadors to Slovakia and Spain supported the protesters and "sided with the people". This was also necessary.

It seemed that just a little more, just a little more, and Lukashenko would fall.

But then Moscow came into play.

After the election was recognised, it began to support Lukashenko organisationally, informationally, and financially.

Europe needed to increase the pressure. But how?

NEXTA was pouring itself into human waste, calling on the opposition to step up, but the zmagars could not take power. Turned out to be weak against their svidomo brothers in mind.

And then Navalny was successfully poisoned.

Or so it seemed to some.

Employees of the German Foreign Ministry sympathetic to the Social Democratic Party (Schroeder's party) got in touch with Yuliya Navalnaya and offered to hospitalise Aleksey in a German clinic.

Yuliya agreed. And turned to Putin.

After that, the German Foreign Minister came to the Bundeskanzler's office and put the joker card on the table: "That's it, we can take Navalny for treatment. If Moscow interferes, we will cause a loud scandal. We will get his body, and then we will decide how to play it."

Alexei Navalny
Merkel found this offer tempting, and she agreed without hesitation.

Moscow did not object.

After Navalny was brought to Germany and taken in a motorcade of 12 cars to the Charité clinic, mother Angela called Moscow and voiced her demands: Russia must refuse to support Lukashenko, otherwise we will announce that Navalny was poisoned by "Novichok".

Moscow refused and increased its support for Lukashenko, declaring that it had formed a reserve of polite people. Just in case of fire.

The next day, Berlin said that the results of tests showed poisoning with a cholinesterase inhibitor. It was a red whistle. This was followed by another call with a warning that the next time "Novichok" would be detected.

Moscow resisted and again refused. And on the same day, it promised Minsk a billion dollars.

Berlin's patience ran out, and Navalny was transferred to a military hospital, where "Novichok" was immediately found in him. It was impossible to find "Novichok" in Charité, because journalists and deputies could request the results of tests, but it was impossible to request it from a military hospital. Secret information!

But even "Novichok" could not force Moscow to stop helping Minsk. Mishustin came to visit Lukashenko.

This was followed by an attempt by Merkel's CSU Deputy, Herr Friedrich Merz, to put pressure on Nord Stream 2, but the German companies involved in the construction of the gas pipeline gave him so much pain in the ears that he quickly crawled back to where he came from, whining and whinging.

And then tough nut Lukashenko suddenly rolled out in the form of an interception of secret negotiations over the Polish-German plans to poison Navalny, deliberately crookedly filmed at "Belarusfilm".

They are now sitting in Warsaw and Berlin and do not know how to react to this movie - to refute it or pretend that they did not notice it. Dilemma!

As a result, the situation turned out to be as follows: Navalny is alive and well, quietly sitting in a German military hospital and from time to time asks, "When can I go home?"

And home for him is now not soon.

Now, a year before the election, the parliamentary electoral campaign starts in Germany.

Merkel's CDU/CSU party already has low support from voters who are already ready to take the Reichstag with their bare hands and plant their banner on it, and then there is such an ugly story with "Novichok"!

If it is declared that the crime of the century has been committed, that the great Russian opposition leader has been brutally poisoned by "Novichok", then there is simply an obligation to sever all relations with the "bloody regime" and present evidence.

But there is none, and there never will be.

And no one will allow to freeze the construction of the pipe. Otherwise, the German companies that have invested in Nord Stream 2 will take the Reichstag and hoist their banner on it even before the outraged burghers.

In general, in this case, the election will be defeated.

If to roll over on one's back, bend over, and return Navalny home with apologies, referring to the fact that there was an unfortunate misunderstanding, and all those who framed Merkel will be punished to the full extent of German law, this will not save the situation either.

The loss of Germany's authority in the international arena, the loss of influence in Europe, and complete incompetence in foreign policy issues will not be forgiven by voters, and in this case the election will also be a defeat.

Therefore, she will have to sit for some time and embrace two chairs with her hemispheres - to accuse Russia of using "Novichok" and at the same time to build Nord Stream 2.

(At this point, the taxi driver, as an illustrative example, explained that it is impossible to sit on two seats - the driver's and the passenger's, the gear stick is too traumatic for the body).

It is not excluded that the resignation of mother, Angela, will happen early, and she won't be able to repeat the record of staying on the Bundeskanzler's post set by her former boss Helmut Kohl, who led the government for 16 years.

What about our Gerhard Schroeder?

And Gerhard Schroeder, who is Chairman of the Board of Directors of Nord Stream 2, and his SPD party are confident and optimistic about the future.

In any case, CDU/CSU will be deflated in the election, and the SPD will strengthen its position in the Bundestag and independently or in a coalition with other parties will lead its leader to the post of Bundeskanzler.

And Nord Stream 2, which has been stalling for several years, will be completed and will reach its full capacity in the shortest possible time.

When we arrived at my house, the taxi driver asked:

"You don't play chess?"

I nodded: "Sometimes".

"In chess, this technique is called 'poisoned pawn'. The opponent, after chasing an advantage in pieces, takes such a pawn, falls into a trap, and inevitably loses."

Finally, getting out of the car, slightly crestfallen, I asked the taxi driver where he got all this information.

The taxi driver smiled the sad smile of Bill Murray and replied:

"From my brother, who lives in Germany and also works as a taxi driver."

At this point, I realised that taxi drivers know everything.