© National Hurricane Center
On Monday afternoon, forecasters said a system churning off the South American coast has a 20 percent chance of forming over the next five days. It's not expected to become any better organized as it remains close to the Central American coast and the Yucatan Peninsula through the week.
But as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico toward the end of the week, conditions could become more favorable. A track forecast so far points the storm toward Mexico, away from Florida.
The system comes less than three weeks after Alberto made a rare preseason arrival as a lopsided subtropical storm when it formed the last week of May. Having another potential storm develop so soon is not unusual, hurricane center spokesman Dennis Feltgen said, even if it seems stormier than usual in Florida. Last month, the state broke a century-old record for rainfall.
Alberto, which formed off the Yucatan Peninsula, spread heavy rain across Florida in May, including Miami Beach, and helped push the rainfall record to the highest in more than a century.
"As we get into July and August, the favorite areas are going to expand markedly to the east," Feltgen said. "But where we're seeing this now is exactly where you'd expect to see it."
Even if no tropical system develops, forecasters warned that the system could dump heavy rain on flood prone areas in Nicaragua, Honduras and other parts of Central America as well as the Yucatan through Thursday.
In South Florida, the National Weather Service's Miami office is calling for daily rain through the week, with overnight and morning showers on the east coast and afternoon and evening storms on the Gulf Coast.
Comment: Meanwhile, on the other side of Mexico:
Major Hurricane Bud threatens western Mexico with rainfall on areas already flooded