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Gowdy, who chaired the House Select Committee on Benghazi, has started buttonholing members of the House Steering Committee in recent days to build support. Five members of that panel, which decides committee assignments, told POLITICO that Gowdy would easily win a race for the job should another member challenge him.
If he does clinch the chairmanship, Gowdy would oversee the sensitive investigation into whether President Donald Trump pressured the FBI to drop a federal investigation of his former national security adviser, Michael Flynn.
Gowdy, a former federal prosecutor, previously chaired the House Select Committee on Benghazi and was an outspoken critic of the Obama administration. This time, however, he'd be the top congressional watchdog for a Republican presidency.
"Trey is more than qualified to be the next chairman of Oversight," said Steering Committee member Tom Graves (R-Ga.), who intends to nominate Gowdy for the post. "He has a lot of support from our conference, and given the responsibilities that come with the position, and his past pedigree [as a prosecutor], he's perfect for the job."
A spokeswoman for Gowdy would not confirm his bid for the gavel.
"Rep. Gowdy is talking to members in the conference about the qualities they believe are most important for the next chairman to possess," said Amanda Gonzalez in a statement.
Gowdy's decision to run comes a few weeks after Chaffetz notified colleagues that he will leave Congress at the end of June to start a career in television. The Washingtonian reported earlier this week that Chaffetz will head to Fox News.
Upon learning of Chaffetz's departure several weeks ago, GOP leaders begged Gowdy to run. He initially rebuffed their pleas and has often mused to colleagues about how he wants to retire and return to South Carolina to spend more time with his family.
When his name first started circulating for the job, many Republicans believed Gowdy would not take it. That view only solidified earlier this week when Gowdy turned down Attorney General Jeff Sessions' invitation to consider becoming the next FBI director.
But Gowdy changed his mind after a number of his colleagues lobbied him to step up, a situation one Steering panel member likened to when Paul Ryan reluctantly agreed to become speaker.
Other lawmakers may decide to run against Gowdy. Oversight is stocked with House Freedom Caucus conservatives who want one of their ringleaders, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), to take the position. Jordan, like Gowdy, is also known for his fierce interrogations of Obama administration officials and is more senior than Gowdy. He does not, however, have as many allies on the Steering Committee, which is composed mainly of loyalists to House leaders.
Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Fla.) was considering a bid for the post but told POLITICO he would not run if Gowdy does.
As head of Oversight, Gowdy would be in the cross hairs of one of the most high-stakes political scandals in recent history.
The House Intelligence Committee, a panel on which Gowdy also sits, is currently investigating Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election and whether colluded with the Trump campaign. Chaffetz this week launched an inquiry into Trump's sudden firing of FBI Director James Comey and subsequent reports that the president had earlier urged Comey to end the investigation of Flynn.
Gowdy would therefore inherit an investigation that Chaffetz started, which would put him in a politically precarious position. Much of the Republican base believes the Russia controversy is overblown, so Gowdy could come under pressure to clear the president.
Should he find facts that lead him to the opposite conclusion, his career as a Republican lawmaker could be in jeopardy if the base turns against him.
Gowdy experienced some of that type of blowback during the Benghazi investigation, when conservatives accused Gowdy of letting former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton off easy.
Gowdy said Tuesday on Fox News that he wants to see the memos Comey wrote about his interactions with Trump before he was fired.
"I want to see the memo [and] I want to talk to Director Comey to determine how contemporaneous his recording of the conversation was," Gowdy said. "What did Director Comey hear? How did he take it? ... That can only be done by looking at the memo and talking to Director Comey."
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