© The White House/AFP via Getty Images
Whenever I write about Israel, I immediately hear from people who cannot bear criticism of the state. There's a similar effect when I talk about Trump. To navigate this moment requires considering things on their own merits — something I know my audience does well. Tribalism is what drove us here; I doubt it will be what gets us out.
Despite the clear incentive for a knee-jerk response to Trump, I have resisted it. Trump, like everyone else, can be judged on his own merits. He certainly has some: he stands outside the standard political oligarchy, and he says things no other politician would dare. I liked the anti-war campaign he delivered — his vocal commitments to avoiding Middle Eastern "adventures" and World War III. To hear it said so explicitly was refreshing. Given the subject matter that launched this Substack, I was also pleased to see Trump engage with RFK Jr.
But here's the thing: what someone says can be entirely at odds with what they do.
In RFK Jr., we got something we wanted from Trump, but it's important to understand why we got it. Trump engaged with RFK Jr. for the same reason he engages with anything: it benefited him personally at the time. He saw that RFK Jr. was polling well. He saw that the medical freedom movement had broken into the mainstream and, in that, he saw an opportunity to bring a powerful figure into his fold. He is a savvy political operative, so he seized the moment. The RFK phenomenon became wind in Trump's sails.
Well, so what? We got RFK, right?
© AP Photo/Evan Vucci, FileRepublican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump shakes hands with Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at a campaign rally at the Desert Diamond Arena, Friday, Aug. 23, 2024, in Glendale, Ariz. Donald Trump and Robert Kennedy Jr.
The why is more important than the what, because understanding motivation gives you predictive power over future actions. As we'll see, that is a very handy tool for getting people to do what you want.
When Trump campaigned on "no more forever wars," no more taxes on foreign conflicts, and no more soldiers coming home in boxes, was it because he truly believed it? Or was it because he understood the power of holding that position? While it's reasonable to assume a candidate might deliver on a promise made so unequivocally, that assumption misses the underlying motive.
Trump's "why" is almost always rooted in power. That isn't always a bad thing, but it is consistent. It's how he has operated since the beginning of his career dealing with the property mafia in New York. Power, the perception of power, and the projection of power are integral to his survival. In this worldview, your integrity, your beliefs, and your actual commitments matter significantly less than the leverage you hold in an interaction.
So, when he told America he was anti-war, he was using that stance to gain power — power he might later trade for something else. When he championed medical freedom, he did so to gain power he could later trade. When he claimed to be the "crypto president," he did so to gain power he could later trade.
It is easy to get swept up in the excitement. A crypto president? RFK heading health services? No more wars? Yet, each of those groups ultimately ended up disappointed. The crypto president didn't deliver; he used his influence to make millions selling "Trump tokens." The medical freedom president previously appointed Alex Azar, a bona fide pharmaceutical executive, as Secretary of Health and Human Services. And now, the "anti-war" president has started a catastrophic war with Iran.
Trump has plunged the planet into a global crisis — the exact thing he promised he wouldn't do. The exact thing. You can twist and contort this if you must, but the facts remain. He explicitly campaigned on the opposite of what he is now doing. "I can tell you, you're not gonna have a war with me," he said repeatedly. "We will demolish the deep state. We will expel the warmongers... those stupid, stupid people. They love seeing people die."
Another campaign favorite? "We would've had a deal with Iran within literally minutes after the election... They were dying to make a deal." Yet here we are, staring down the barrel of WW3.
He said those things because it was expedient. It got him elected, and getting elected got him power. While Trump claims negotiations weren't going his way, Omani mediators — key players in the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks — noted that every concession asked of the Iranians had been agreed upon. How does that equate to negotiations failing?
It becomes crystal clear: Trump is not anti-war. He simply recognized the power of the rhetoric. Given what we know now, Trump being "anti-war" is as absurd as a communist buying a water company or a capitalist raising taxes to 100%.
We can use this same model to understand why he launched this war. Did he mistakenly believe it would benefit him in the short term? Did he think it would gain him additional political leverage? This brings us to the fatal flaw at the heart of the Trump presidency.
In markets, an "alpha signal" is a pattern that predicts future movements. In poker, if you discover someone's "tell," you can exploit it. When Conor McGregor fought Jose Aldo, McGregor spotted a tell in Aldo's game and even told journalists about it before the fight. He then ruthlessly exploited it and knocked Aldo out.
Trump has a tell. His game has been obvious for a long time: He has a massive ego, he acts in the short term to increase his power, he craves flattery, and he is wounded when people don't respect him. These aren't difficult tells to work out. It means the people surrounding Trump can gain power simply by playing the game. They frame things in ways that motivate him to act. Once you see the tell, he is easy to move into position.
A great, if odd, example is the shoes Trump buys for his hand-picked executives. They are expensive dress shoes he likes; he looks at a staffer's feet, guesses the size, and has an aide order a pair.
"Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have some. So do Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Trump's communications director Steven Cheung, deputy chief of staff James Blair and speechwriter Ross Worthington. Fox News personality Sean Hannity and Sen. Lindsey Graham each have a pair."
© Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesBlack shoes and blue suits were the order of the day in Davos for President Trump and administration leaders.
"in Davos for President Trump and administration leaders are wearing Trump's favourite shoes."
Because it pleases Trump.
What Trump considers a loyalty test is actually a tell to be exploited. If I say, "You have great taste, I love these shoes," my proximity to his power increases. One reading is that Trump is a "strongman" demanding people wear his clothes. My view? Trump is the one being exploited. His penchant for flattery is so obvious that people like Rubio, Graham, and Lutnick are happy to play along if it buys them influence.
These idiosyncrasies make him easy prey for motivated actors. Lindsey Graham has been psychopathically campaigning for war with Iran for two decades. Two decades. Lindsey Graham wears the shoes.
© Lindsey Graham/X)Trump and war monger Lindsay Graham on Air Force One, January 5, 2026. Graham made easy work of Donald Trump
In the early days of this conflict, Trump clung to the idea that he could stop it "any time he wanted." He likely believed it, but that belief was built on "advice" designed to stroke his ego and his desire for ratings. It is trivial to sell a war to a man led by those principles.
Trump's tell has been used to drag America into a war that could last for years. The tragedy of promising to "expel the warmongers, those horrible warmongers from our government — those stupid, stupid people." only to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with them and accept their stupid gifts. The very "warmongers" he vowed to exile simply worked out his tell, put on his shoes, and played his ego until they got the one thing they've wanted for two decades.
It doesn't matter what Trump believes now. The war has started, and he doesn't have the power to stop it. He's in it, and there is no obvious way out — which is precisely what the warmongers who infiltrated his presidency wanted.
Reader Comments
This article would have been beneficial last March.
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In Trump's first term he was hounded by the mockingbird media, Lawfare, disinformation like Russiagate, and impeachment proceedings. If he was wounded, he would be dead. I can understand people seeing Trump as an egoist and narcissist, however you can also interpret this as character in the face of relentless negative pressure. I would suggest that anyone else would have folded under the pressure.
In 2015-16 I believed the same of Trump, "he has a massive ego", and I voted that way. However, in my view, he has demonstrated tremendous character in his first term. The problem for most analysts is seeing the total context because we do not have enough information.
There is a globalist power structure that has infiltrated all governments and particularly Western media. This is the information that people get; they Frame it. Iran could be Trump's Waterloo, we live in a time when we will know.
@dwoods44:
there is to be an informative microfilm to be broadcast over the airwaves this evening (march 20) at eleven.
be sure to get your most intense and powerful magnifying lenses, now, in order to view and gain the proper perspective of a microfilm of this magnitude.
after you are done watching, do not cast away your lenses, for they will be vitally important to your (and everyone else's) future.
keep those lenses polished and secure. update them regularly. otherwise, you might be caught moving backward in time.
and this is not allowed.
es ist verboten.
copy?
ned,
out
Here is my perspective: is it possible that after Zion Donny saw what happened to Charlie for opposing the elephant in the room, he has gone this route knowing his DEI depleted Military was not up to the task, and the Russians have shown how drones and satellites win wars .
Perhaps Zion Don started this war to actually finish off Israel once and for all, bring the troops home, and abandon all the ME bases that are destroyed now and useless now.
Strange that Russia has sent its latest weapons system , that has made the USA park 400 km away, at least, and lob in missiles. The US fighter pilots refuse to fly, and their FORD carrier sailors sabotaged the toilets and started a fire because they new they were sitting ducks.
We all know the IDF Samson option was used on Oct 11, for an invasion they allowed, and using stand down orders. for their own troops.
So no reason to think they would not nuke the ME rather than lose it.
And Silverstein buying the Bank One building in LA sounds like a false flag waiting to happen.