© Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERSPeople walk past a banner with a picture of late Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a street in Tehran, Iran, August 12, 2024.
Iran has vowed a severe response to Haniyeh's killing, which took place as he visited Tehran late last month and which it blamed on Israel. Israel has neither confirmed or denied its involvement. The U.S. Navy has deployed warships and a submarine to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses.
One of the sources, a senior Iranian security official, said Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or it perceives Israel is dragging out negotiations. The sources did not say how long Iran would allow for talks to progress before responding.
With an increased risk of a broader Middle East war after the killings of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has been involved in intense dialogue with Western countries and the United States in recent days on ways to calibrate retaliation, said the sources, who all spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
In comments published on Tuesday, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey confirmed Washington was asking allies to help convince Iran to de-escalate tensions. Three regional government sources described conversations with Tehran to avoid escalation ahead of the Gaza ceasefire talks, due to begin on Thursday in either Egypt or Qatar.
"We hope our response will be timed and executed in a way that does not harm a potential ceasefire," Iran's mission to the U.N. said on Friday in a statement. Iran's foreign ministry on Tuesday said calls to exercise restraint "contradict principles of international law."
Iran's foreign ministry and its Revolutionary Guards Corps did not immediately respond to questions for this story. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office and the U.S. State Department did not respond to questions.
© AFP 2023 / SAUL LOEBWhite House spokesperson John Kirby
"If something does happen this week, the timing of it could certainly well have an impact on these talks we want to do on Thursday," he added.
At the weekend, Hamas cast doubt on whether talks would go ahead. Israel and Hamas have held several rounds of talks in recent months without agreeing a final ceasefire.
In Israel, many observers believe a response is imminent after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would "harshly punish" Israel for the strike in Tehran.
"We are closely following what happens in Beirut and Tehran, and are working to thwart any (possible) threat, while also preparing a variety of offensive options," Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said during a visit to an intelligence base in Northern Israel.
"We are determined to fulfill our mission - we must ensure the safe return of (Israel's northern) residents to their homes, once we ensure that Hezbollah withdraws north of the Litani River."
Comment: Fat chance of that happening. Hezbollah wants the land stolen from Lebanon back, plus they know the longer they can keep the north of Israel empty, the bigger drain it is on Israel's economy to look after all the displaced illegal squatters. A win from every angle.
© ReutersNewly elected Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian on July 6, 2024
Meir Litvak, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University's Alliance Center for Iranian Studies, said he thought Iran would put its needs before helping its ally Hamas but that Iran also wanted to avoid a full-scale war.
"The Iranians never subordinated their strategy and policies to the needs of their proxies or protégées," Litvak said. "An attack is likely and almost inevitable but I don't know the scale and the timing."
Iran-based analyst Saeed Laylaz said the Islamic Republic's leaders were now keen to work towards a ceasefire in Gaza, "to obtain incentives, avoid an all-out war and strengthen its position in the region."
Laylaz said Iran had not previously been involved in the Gaza peace process but was now ready to play "a key role."
Iran, two of the sources said, was considering sending a representative to the ceasefire talks. However, they said the representative would not directly attend the meetings but would engage in behind-the-scenes discussions "to maintain a line of diplomatic communication" with the United States while negotiations proceed.
Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York told Reuters that Tehran would not have a representative present on the sidelines of the ceasefire talks. Officials in Washington, Qatar and Egypt did not immediately respond to questions about whether Iran would play an indirect role in talks.
Two senior sources close to Lebanon's Hezbollah said Tehran would give the negotiations a chance but would not give up its intentions to retaliate.
A ceasefire in Gaza would give Iran cover for a smaller "symbolic" response, one of the sources said.
Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and capturing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
Since then, nearly 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli offensive in Gaza, according to the health ministry.
Comment: Not even close. The most conservative tallies from organizations on the ground put that number north of 100,000, possibly 200,000. That's close to 10 percent of Gaza's total population. Depopulating Gaza has been Israel's goal all along.
Full text:This ghoul is baldly up front about it:
Palestinian writer Susan Abulhawa visited Gaza twice this year between February and May, witnessing firsthand the unimaginable scale of Israel's actions. Based on statistics from the WHO, scientific literature detailing morbidity and mortality data for various conditions in Gaza, Abulhawa uses math to estimate a staggering reality: while the official death toll stalled at 30,000 for months before climbing to 37,000, they grossly underestimate the true death toll.
These figures only account for identified victims of 'direct fire'. Hundreds of thousands more remain uncounted — unidentified bodies or body parts, those who died due to a lack of medicine and healthcare, those buried by their loved ones without getting to hospital, those who starved to death, those trapped under the rubble, those who succumbed to torture while abducted by the IOF and/or those missing.
April missiles
Iran has not publicly indicated what would be the target of an eventual response to the Haniyeh assassination.
On April 13, two weeks after two Iranian generals were killed in a strike on Tehran's embassy in Syria, Iran unleashed a barrage of hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles towards Israel, damaging two airbases. Almost all of the weapons were shot down before they reached their targets.
"Iran wants its response to be much more effective than the April 13 attack," said Farzin Nadimi, senior fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East policy."
Nadimi said such a response would require "a lot of preparation and coordination" especially if it involved Iran's network of allied armed groups opposing Israel and the United States across the Middle East, with Hezbollah the senior member of the so-called "Axis of Resistance," that along with Iraqi militias and Yemen's Houthis have harried Israel since Oct. 7.
Two of the Iranian sources said Iran would support Hezbollah and other allies if they launched their own responses to the killing of Haniyeh and Hezbollah's top military commander, Fuad Shukr, who died in a strike in Beirut the day before Haniyeh was killed in Tehran.
The sources did not specify what form such support could take.
Reader Comments
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Or it could be the response is being timed to maximize fear Sun Tzu style. Cause the zigaboos ain't got no monopoly in trickery and deception - tis just the wise general knows when to use said tools.
All the zigaboos got is proven lies and hatefulness - they are genocidal maniacs - and I pray for Justified Retribution upon them and all the zealots within their ranks....
Let it be swift - and lets get this shit over with - time for better ideas I say with resolution in mind.
Jorden might not be the ally some think it is, or entities within Jorden may choose to cross the border on their own accord. Saudi Arabia might seem to be sitting back and watching, but them along with Turkey have a formidable air force not to be effed with.
And I haven't even mentioned Yemen nor Iran.
Israel and its supporters in the us of a are in deep "doo-doo" - it is obvious and evident - and truly the only way a bully learns anything - is the hard way - and that demands troops on the ground.
Russia knows that as so does China.
India ought know as well - and Pakistan also.
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Odds are Brazil will send in support to those defending women and children and will Peru, Venezuela and most of South America. Mejico is sitting in sweet spot and remember the Alamo they probably are thinking - so odds are they will also be supportive with caution.
It ain't hard to imagine the end of Israel - and they shall reap what they sow.
You know how that sounds to me? It sounds like low level targets in Israel are being discussed and chosen so Iran can save face. Not too much damage or destruction of something not important and a few casualties but no one important. Difficult to not be cynical.
What is when your operational abilities exceed your theoretical limits for $300 Alex
We are watching scripted Kabuki theatre of the absurd. We all know Israhell has more Nukes than anybody in the ME. It will be interesting to see if the Puppet masters pop smoke & cut sling to destroy Israhell & move onto Zewkraine for the next project & synthesized technology event horizon paradigm.
All eyes watching to see if the Phoenix rises again from out of the ashes of Chaos & cauldron of fire.