The Government's top scientific advisers have released
papers today claiming social distancing and masks must remain in place for another year to avoid another wave of hospitalisations and deaths this summer at levels seen in January, despite the high vaccine take-up. The Mail
has the details.
Social distancing will remain in place until next year even if Boris Johnson's roadmap out of lockdown goes to plan, the Government's top scientific advisers warned today.
Senior SAGE sources said that while the vaccines prevent the vast majority of people from falling ill and dying from coronavirus, they "are not good enough" to see all curbs lifted "without a big epidemic".
All legal limits on social contact were to be abolished by June 21st as part of the final stage of the Prime Minister's four-step route out of the crisis. It was hoped that festivals, sports events and nightclubs would reopen and that families and friends could reunite in large numbers after that date for the first time since winter 2020.
However, No 10's experts claimed today that "baseline measures", including some form of social distancing and masks, would need to remain in place until this time next year. They said they are "reasonably confident" that Covid will be manageable by then.
The AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines reduce Covid deaths by about 90%, but there are fears high infection rates could see the virus spill into the small number of vulnerable people who haven't been jabbed or for whom the vaccines don't work.
Despite the pessimistic comments, Mr Johnson is set to announce the country is on track for the second stage of his lockdown easing plans on April 12th, which will see shops, gyms, hairdressers and beer gardens reopen again.
Cases and deaths are at their lowest levels in six months and more than half of the adult population has been vaccinated with at least one dose of the jabs.
Papers released by SAGE today show the expert group is confident next week's lockdown-easing measures will not pile pressure on the NHS, even if there is a slight uptick in infections, because of the success of the jab rollout.
But the advisory panel is less optimistic about future stages of the roadmap, adding that it is "highly likely that there will be a further resurgence in hospitalisations and deaths".
They said the reopening of pubs, cinemas and indoor hospitality - due to happen on May 17th - could be delayed if vaccine uptake in the under-50s dips below 85%.
Modelling by Warwick University, Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine (LSHTM) warned of a late summer surge after "freedom day" in June which could rival levels seen this January when hospitals were nearly overwhelmed.
It comes despite the models being relied on having been consistently wrong in hugely over-predicting deaths due to faulty assumptions about the deadliness of the virus, the susceptibility of the population, the effectiveness of interventions and the seasonality of the virus.
© Spectator Data Tracker
© CDC
The Government is still in urgent need of a
red team to counter the doom and gloom being pumped out by SAGE.
Comment: At this stage of the Corona madness the PTB are actively working on introducing some form of vaccine passport that will give them even more control over the population. The vaccine passports will also divide people into the "vaccinated elite" on one side and "infectious savages" on the other. While people argue and fight between them the real enemy is working in the background and stripping humanity of their rights and freedom by imposing a totalitarian police state under the guise of a fake pandemic.
When the Government holds a vote on vaccine passports, the support of the Labour benches will be vital for a victory (presuming that a decent number of Conservative MPs vote "no"). But Keir Starmer has yet to decide whether to back the Government over the introduction of such certification and was "really angry" that an interview he gave to the Telegraph last week foregrounded his criticism of the idea. The Guardian has the story.
Keir Starmer is weighing up whether to support Covid status certificates in a vote within weeks for which he could lend the Government crucial support to pass one of its most controversial coronavirus policies.
The Labour leader has been hesitant to endorse a proposal that would mean people would have to prove they had been vaccinated, had a recent negative test or antibodies from prior infection in order to access venues such as theatres and sports stadiums. ...
Labour is trying to keep its options open given that details about the plan are scarce, and will hope that attention remains on the splits within the Conservative party, where more than 40 of Boris Johnson's backbenchers have branded the idea "divisive and discriminatory" and vowed to oppose it.
But after dozens of prominent Labour backbenchers, including the former party leader Jeremy Corbyn, also pledged to vote against the certificates, Starmer is being forced to decide whether he should give the Government the support it may need.
A Labour source said Starmer's team was "worried that this issue splits the PLP [parliamentary Labour party] just like it splits the Tory party" and was "really angry" that an interview he gave to the Telegraph last week was headlined on his criticism of the Covid status certificates.
They admitted: "There isn't really a consensus yet" within the party, though they predicted Labour would probably end up supporting the certificates "but probably not make much of a song and dance about it".
The "reservations are real", says another Labour source - but mainly around the "digital infrastructure" of Covid passports, rather than about their implication on liberty.
That's about as much "opposition" as we can expect from the notional Leader of the Opposition.
Worth reading in full.
Stop Press: Labour has called vaccine passports "discriminatory" and appears to be leaning towards opposing the Government on a Covid ID card scheme. The Guardian has the story.
The Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth, accused the Government of "creating confusion" by not explaining clearly where the documents may be needed, after Boris Johnson confirmed they were being investigated but would not be introduced earlier than mid-May.
"I'm not going to support a policy that, here in my Leicester constituency, if someone wants to go into Next or H&M, they have to produce a vaccination certificate on their phone, on an app," Ashworth told BBC Breakfast. "I think that's discriminatory."
He added it made sense to ask people to get tested before going to events such as a football game, but warned that forcing everyone to carry an "ID card" proving they had been jabbed was not fair.
Worth reading in full.
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