Russia's economy continued to strengthen in October, with industrial output 5.8% higher than in September (the biggest rise since April) and inflation falling to an annual rate of 6.1% (below market expectations). Inflation at the end of November will probably be below 6%. Both manufacturing and services PMI were in positive territory 52.40 and 52.70 respectively).
Meanwhile Russia continues to be in line for a record grain harvest this year of around 106 million tonnes.
This reflects an across the board strengthening of the Russia's whole agriculture sector, which is growing at an annual rate of around 3%.
The country in a few years has managed to become self-sufficient in pork and poultry where it was previously a big importer, and it should soon be self sufficient in beef as well, at which point it will have become entirely self-sufficient in all meat products.
The transformation in Russia's agriculture sector has enabled the country to cut food imports by 10% this year from those of the previous year. Russia this year for the first time in its history is set to overtake the US to become the world's biggest exporter of wheat, and it has also become a net exporter of certain other food products such as chicken meat.
The days when Russian consumers bought chicken legs imported from the US (known locally as "Bush's legs") are gone. In the words of Russian Minister of Agriculture, Alexander Tkachev
"To compare, ten years ago food import exceeded export volumes four times, and now export volume is only 1.5 time lower than import volume. Export growth is due to the increased supply of wheat (by 32%) and sunflower oil (by 15%)".Tkachev has predicted that if government support for the agricultural sector remains at current levels, then by 2020 the value of the country's food exports will equal that of its food imports.
With Russian agri-businesses now investing heavily in increasing food and vegetable output (the main food products Russia is still importing), the country looks set in the 2020s to become a major food exporter, with Russian Prime Minister Medvedev predicting that food exports will soon become Russia's second biggest foreign currency earner after energy exports.
Tkachev's comment about the importance of government support being necessary to ensure the continued growth of Russia's agricultural sector is undoubtedly what lies behind Putin's gnomic comment of a few days ago that even if Western sanctions on Russia are lifted, Russia will drag its heels as long as it can before it lifts the retaliatory ban it imposed on food imports from the EU.
RT reports Putin saying
"We really did it responsibly and, in fact, used the short-sighted decisions that had been applied in regard to our country by our so-called partners, who introduced the sanctions."(bold italics added)
In truth for Russia's agricultural sector EU sanctions have been an unqualified boon, with the counter sanctions weaning the country off imports at a speed that seems to have surprised even the Russian government, whilst providing a major boost for domestic production.
Though the Russians doubtless will drag their heels on lifting the counter sanctions, my opinion is that the country's agricultural sector has now gained sufficient critical mass that it will continue to grow rapidly even once sanctions are lifted. Moreover by prohibiting the growth in Russia of GM foods the Russian authorities are helping this process along by successfully fostering the idea amongst many Russians that their own food is healthier and better than food imported from the West.
With Russia now even successfully producing reasonable substitutes for expensive imported cheeses like Parmesan, the days when it was possible to write pieces about Russians lamenting the disappearance of imported cheese are all but gone.
It is conventional in the West to think of Russia as a land of boring food, of food queues and of food shortages, and this image of the country once contained much more than a grain of truth. However when traveling to Russia today the impression on the contrary is of great variety in food and above all of abundance.
As I have discussed many times previously, by far the single biggest constraint on growth is the Central Bank's single minded focus on its counter inflation policy, which aims to bring the annual rate of inflation by the end of 2014 down to 4%.
What this has meant in practice is sky high real interest rates - the highest by far of any major economy - and falling real incomes, as short term growth is being sacrificed to bring down inflation.
With the government now committed for the next three years to a policy of fiscal consolidation aimed at extinguishing the budget deficit by 2020, there is no countervailing fiscal stimulus to offset the Central Bank's emphasis on inflation reduction, which is why growth is slow. The result is that even as the country exits recession living standards continue to fall, a fact which however - as I have discussed previously - is something which the Central Bank almost certainly privately welcomes because it increases the economy's competitiveness and reduces inflation by depressing demand, even as it prevents the economy from growing.
At some point however interest rates will fall as inflation falls to the Central Bank's target, and with Central Bank Chair Nabiullina predicting that the remaining foreign debt owed by Russian banks will have been paid off by the end of 2017 conditions in the economy for a return to higher sustained growth (around 4% per annum) in the 2020s are being put in place. If oil prices recover more quickly, then of course growth might even come sooner though as a consequence of the deliberate policy of the government the importance of the oil price to the state of the economy is diminishing.
In the meantime the fall in investment is leveling off, the exchange rate of the rouble has stabilized, and foreign direct investment in the Russian economy in anticipation of its future expansion is growing again.
This is the state of the Russian economy today. In some areas such as agriculture the results of government policy are already bearing fruit. In others such as industry and manufacturing it remains very much a work in progress. However talk of the economy being a basket case or in any sort of crisis is nonsense.
once again I'll spill the beans (which is something that usually gets me into trouble). What started years ago, the transfer of money from the West to the East is going to continue, which means the West will get poorer and the East will get richer. Now, this isn't funny. Starting from the U.S. and moving to Europe. During the first 4 years of the Trump presidency poverty will once again hit the U.S. in a linear way to use a term from mathematics. During his second term, poverty will hit again
this time exponentially. In the mean time NASA will be hard at work. So by 2025 when Trump's shift will be over both the U.S. and Europe will be economically flattened. Meanwhile base camp plus the quantum computers on Mars will be ready. So, the order will be : "Start sending them up." From 2025 to 2050, 200 million people mainly from the U.S. and Europe will be sent to Mars to start building the first human colony in space. We got "help" btw, alien advisors. 200 million people during the same period will be transferred to Europe and the U.S. In total 400 million people will be relocated, the largest displacement in the history of mankind. Middle ages redux , only this time a bit more organized. According to schedule it will take 125 years to get the colony ready, that's around 2175.
By 2025 earth's population will have reached 8 billion and maximum sustainability for planet earth has been calculated to 12 billion.
So all the above that most of you think is science fiction, isn't. It's a must if we want to survive as a race. Actually it was my second post on the internet back in 1997 and I was "nailed" ever
since in the sense that my telecoms have been monitored ever since. So there's even confirmation that I'm not bullshitting you. Besides, what reason would I have to ?
As usual such a project of tremendous magnitude isn't going to be easy at all. Even if I had the chance I wouldn't go. Because it happened to me when I was serving. We were ordered to transform a bunch of military outposts to a full scale battalion. We all got under such a tremendous
pressure that we were constantly getting into all sorts of fights regardless of RANK. We carried so much ammo and fuel plus for the first 2 months I had quart master duties that my nerves had become a violin's strings (and not mine's only, everybody's). What they are going to do is 100 times more difficult, plus they really don't know what they will be up against (malfunctions, delays and all sorts of unexpected problems). Plus on more thing : Unfriendly aliens. The heavens is not a friendly place to be. We know that by now , but the way things have become we no longer have a choice.
One final point : Those up there will be in great danger for 3 reasons : First of all they might get into such a fight, that it will end up in a civil war and might blow up the entire plan. Secondly and most importantly they might be hit by an alien race. We won't be able to help them, they are too
far away. We already have some advanced weapons ready, we 'll have to keep developing them. Finally , we might hit them. Like it happened with Pearl Harbor and 9/11. In short it's a f***g suicide mission, but again we have no choice.