Puppet Masters
Particularly, the problem is rooted not only in the weakening system of national defense amid the growing terrorist threat. Rubin also outlined a number of contributing domestic issues. Turkey's public debt may be stable but its private debt is getting out control. The tourism industry is almost in ruins. Finally, the weakening national currency is having an impact on citizens' buying power, the analyst wrote for the American Enterprise Institute.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is "out-of-control," the article read. He is imprisoning political opponents, cracking down on the freedom of speech and "building palaces at the rate of a mad sultan." Earlier this month, Erdogan even threatened to dissolve the Turkish constitutional court. "His outbursts are raising eyebrows both in Turkey and abroad. Even members of his ruling party whisper about his increasing paranoia, according to some Turkish officials," Rubin wrote.
The analyst also brought up the Kurdish problem. Originally, Erdogan resumed peace talks with Kurds, but then he started a war against them. At the same time, Ankara has no chance to win this war while chances are high of a "de facto partition."
Turkey understands that Erdogan is leading the country to nowhere, and the Turkish military understands this too. "So if the Turkish military moves to oust Erdogan and place his inner circle behind bars, could they get away with it? In the realm of analysis rather than advocacy, the answer is yes," the author wrote.
Ahead of presidential elections, Barack Obama's administration is unlikely to do more than castigate possible coup leaders, especially if they laid out a path to restore democracy in Turkey. Washington will no longer show sympathy for Erdogan as it did for dethroned Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi in 2013, according to the article. When Morsi was ousted his commitment to democracy was a matter of discussion. In the case of Turkey, both Republicans and Democrats will be ready to work with the new regime.
The fact that Turkey is one of the oldest NATO members could not prevent a coup, the analyst added. He assumed that coup leaders would immediately release all jailed journalists and return seized newspapers and broadcasters to their rightful owners to avoid European and US criticism of human right violations in Turkey.
What is more, if the new government expresses willingness to work with Kurds the US and the EU would support it.
To sum up, Rubin noted that he makes no predictions. However, there are two strong factors that "Turkey's rocky politics would soon get rockier" - the deepening domestic tensions and the chance that the Turkish military would suffer no significant consequences in the event of a coup.
Reader Comments
I do remember some comments from Sibel Edmonds about problems within the Turkish military. Some officers being outed by force, even someone volunteered and defected to Russia to seek asylum (apparently the tension was life threatening). I do no know back then which was the real cause. But at present day the status of tension, terrorists attacks within Turkey, the war in Syria, the military build up with Saudi Arabia, and the sudden backslash of "old friends" (Israel, US, UK, EU) ... it seems like a grim future awaits. Having all of that in perspective, it seems to me a good cause to leave the Turkish military before everything blows up. Just sharing my theories, not the I've read everything in plain text.
Comment: Turkish citizens and the Turkey's military increasingly recognize that Erdogan is taking Turkey to the edge of the precipice in which there is no chance of victory and a high chance of it breaking apart. The Turkish military is the ultimate guardian of Turkey's constitution and its citizens. Will they see deposing Erdogan as what is necessary to protect their country and people, or stand by and let this psychopathic despot bring Turkey to disgrace and ruin?