Study found funeral in Guinea may have caused outbreak in Sierra Leone© IndependentAcross Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone at least 660 people have died from the worst outbreak yet of the haemorrhagic fever, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said,
Five co-authors of the latest study on Ebola were killed by the virus before their research was published, highlighting the huge risks undertaken by those working to combat its spread.
The study, published on Thursday, discovered the virus has mutated many times during the outbreak in West Africa, making establishing a treatment more difficult.
Mbalu Fonnie, Alex Moigboi, Alice Kovoma, Mohamed Fullah and Sheik Umar Khan worked with lead researchers at Harvard University to examine the current outbreak.
Science Magazine said all five were experienced members of the Kenema Government Hospital's (KGH) Lassa fever team. Lassa fever infections have similar symptoms to Ebola.
Their work sequenced the virus genomes from 78 patients and traced the outbreak in Sierra Leone
to a funeral of a healer, which a pregnant Kenema Government Hospital Ebola patient and other women who were also infected had attended.
Two months before his death, Mr Khan had described the dangers of treating people with the disease, telling Reuters he feared for his life.
A doctor examines blood samples of Ebola He said: "I am afraid for my life, I must say, because I cherish my life. Health workers are prone to the disease because we are the first port of call for somebody who is sickened by disease. Even with the full protective clothing you put on, you are at risk."
More than half of the
3,069 people infected by Ebola have died from the disease, which has spread across Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea, Nigeria and now Senegal.
The World Health Organisation has warned the current outbreak could infect up to 20,000 people before it ends.
The
study, 'Genomic surveillance elucidates Ebola virus origin and transmission during the 2014 outbreak', is published online in
Science Magazine.
...suggests a dim future. At the end of the first paragraph following the abstract, it is stated "It is the largest known EVD outbreak and is expanding exponentially with a doubling period of 34.8 days." For the sake of simplistic rounding, we'll just use 1 month as the doubling time frame. Beginning now with the current 3,069 current reported cases-
1 month - 6,138
3 months - 24,552
6 months - 196,416
9 months - 1,571,328
12 months - 12,570,624
18 months - 804,519,936
21 months - 6,436,159,488 (pretty much the entire planetary human population)
Obviously there are numerous factors that can affect this projected progression, but still- those are some very sobering numbers. Better get ready for it now if you haven't started already- just in case.