© AlamyWith the only thing growing fast the gap between rich and poor, this year's economic conclave in Davos could be a gloomy one
More than 2,500 of globalisation's movers and shakers gather for their annual four-day mountaintop conclave this week, aware that the world is still being shaken by the events of half a decade ago.
When the World Economic Forum met in Davos in early 2009, it was against the backdrop of the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers a few months earlier, and a contraction in activity that raised fears of a second Great Depression. Since then, hopes of a quick return to business as usual have been dashed by sluggish recovery, an incomplete repair job on banks, rising inequality, growing political alienation and concerns about extreme weather events and internet meltdown.
Klaus Schwab, founder and chairman of the WEF, has told the business executives, academics and government officials attending Davos this year that much remains to be done. "Economic growth patterns, the geopolitical landscape, the social contract that binds people together, and our planet's ecosystem are all undergoing radical, simultaneous transformations, generating anxiety and, in many places, turmoil," he said.
Much also remains to be done if the WEF is to make progress on the gender quotas it set four years ago. Then it told its 100 corporate partners - attracted to the Swiss resort by the opportunities to hammer out business deals behind the scenes - that they could bring a fifth representative only if it was a woman. Yet the percentage of women attending is just 16%.
Saadia Zahidi, head of gender parity and human capital at the WEF, says efforts are being made to push gender up the agenda. This year's theme is "Reshaping the world" and Zahidi points to six sessions, including a key event with Sheryl Sandberg of Facebook and the IMF's Christine Lagarde on on 25 January - though many delegates will have left by then.
The issues most likely to crop up during the five days of formal and private sessions include:
Technology
In the year since the last Davos, the world has been convulsed by the online surveillance revelations of whistleblower Edward Snowden. The concern at the WEF is that the distrust sown by this has led to a "balkanisation" of the web, with national authorities becoming less willing to co-operate, at a time when the world is vulnerable to a systemic failure. This year's meeting will note that while scientific and technological breakthroughs have the potential to change the world for the better, there is a need to build defences against the increasingly aggressive hackers and the threat of "cybergeddon".
Inequality
Each year, the World Economic Forum surveys 700 of its members to gauge risks to global prosperity over the next decade. This year, the biggest threat was seen as the growing gap between rich and poor. Given that some of the richest people on the planet will be at Davos, meetings are likely to be long on the need to address the problem and short on practical measures, particularly ones that might affect corporate profits or low marginal tax rates for the well-off.
But Schwab says the issue cannot be ducked: "The slowdown is taking place against the backdrop of rising economic inequality, owing to the declining share of national income going to labour, a worldwide phenomenon - resulting from globalisation and technological progress - that poses a serious challenge to policymakers. Systems that propagate inequality, or that seem unable to stem its rise, contain the seeds of their own destruction. But in an interdependent world, there is no obvious solution, as the high mobility of capital fuels global tax competition."
The global economy
Much attention will be paid to the fact that the deepest slump in postwar history has been followed by the weakest recovery. In the past, economies have tended to be booming five years after a recession, but growth has been weak despite low interest rates and money creation programmes. Attention this year will focus on four issues. Can the US "taper" away its QE stimulus without aborting its tepid recovery and triggering a fresh crisis in one of the "fragile five" emerging countries (India, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Brazil)? Can China switch to a more liberalised model without a hard landing? Will the eurozone be able to avoid Japanese-style deflation? And will 2014 be the year when Japan emerges from two decades of slow growth and falling prices? Japan's prime minister, Shinzo Abe, will give a keynote speech on 22 January, and insiders are expecting an optimistic tone following signs that his stimulus package is working.
Geopolitics
Davos likes to see itself as a mini UN, using the presence of so many leaders to seek progress in some of the world's trouble spots. This year, attention will focus on the Middle East, particularly Syria, and relations between Iran and Israel. Hassan Rouhani, Iran's president will be speaking to the WEF on 23 January. Israel's prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, and its president, Shimon Peres, will also be in Davos, but will not share a platform with Rouhani. More generally, the WEF believes there is a crisis of global governance, with countries reluctant to co-operate on issues such as climate change and an erosion of trust in politicians caused by the banking crisis.
ON THE GUEST LIST
Aside from the formal events at Davos, the 2,500 delegates get a chance to rub shoulders at exclusive invitation-only cocktail parties and clinch lucrative business deals in a myriad of private rooms and upmarket hotels. Security is tight, which is little surprise given some of the people who are scheduled to turn up.
Heads of state or government David Cameron and his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe will be among 40 or national leaders, also including Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his president, Shimon Peres. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, recently injured while skiing, will not be attending.
Central bankers the Bank of England's Mark Carney and the ECB's Mario Draghi.
Business figures Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs, Bob Dudley of BP, Lakshmi Mittal of steelmaker Arcelor Mittal and Sir Martin Sorrell of WPP. Antony Jenkins of Barclays may run into his predecessor, Bob Diamond.
Wild cards Actor Matt Damon is receiving an award, yachtswoman Dame Ellen MacArthur is speaking and U2 frontman Bono is appearing at a session with Cameron. Almost 300 government officials are on the list and 200 academics from all parts of the world. And added to the mix will be some 900 journalists.
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