© Gothic ImageKen Ring
Ken Ring, the author of books linking the moon with weather patterns, says he accurately forecast the February 22 tremor, which left about 240 people feared dead, in a Valentine's Day tweet.
"Potential earthquake time for the planet between 15th-25th, especially 18th for Christchurch, +/- about 3 days," Ring tweeted on February 14. "Short... and sharp."
Now traumatised residents are fearful after another Ring prediction: that Christchurch -- hit by two major quakes in the past six months, along with thousands of aftershocks -- will suffer another big tremor in the coming days.
"I'm hoping he's wrong, but we're going down to our holiday house for the week just in case," said schoolteacher Kirsty Carruthers. "It'll help take our minds off things, and it can't hurt to get away."
Ring maintains the risk of another quake is high because the moon is now unusually close to the Earth, exerting a strong gravitational pull.
But scientists have scoffed at Ring's claims, with Canterbury University tectonics expert Mark Quigley calling them "ludicrous".
"No one has predicted the recent earthquakes in Canterbury," Quigley said.
"Vague quotes about dates of 'increased' activity plus or minus several days, without magnitudes, locations, and exact times do not constitute prediction.
"(This) is opportunistic and meaningless self-promotion during a time of national crisis."
Matt Gerstenberger, of New Zealand's Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences, said: "The correlation is low enough so that a prediction based on (the moon) would be correct only a small proportion of the time, and would be wrong much more often than it is correct."
Systematics expert David Winter ran a statistical analysis of earthquake activity against Ring's total predictions, and said there was little to suggest he was credible.
"Once you see how implausible his methods are you realise you?d need incredible evidence to believe his predictions," he said.
"And once you see his run of false positives you realise that his 'prediction' of last week's earthquake doesn't meet that standard."
Reader Comments
When GeoNet denies the relationship between gravitational forces of the Moon, Sun, other planetary bodies and the movement of tides and seismic activity they look naive. When they refuse to accept that movement in one part of a fault line will cause movement along the rest of the fault line they are being dangerously stupid.
The seismic activity in Christchurch at the moment is exceptional. It is not, as GeoNet tells us quieting down, it is increasing. It is also spreading along the fault line and around the globe.
Mr Ring is at least looking at causal relationships. He is at least dealing with the observable universe. He at least is prepared to say He cares enough about peoples safety to put his reputation on the line. It worth noting that he has had some success. Others using the same methodology have too. ***Check out thebarcaroller's channel on Utube.***
Why do GeoNet scientists reject his warning out of hand. Is it because of their own abysmal failure to predict earthquakes and volcanic activity.
GeoNet is repeating their Mantra of We dont know what causes earthquakes and therefore can't predict them. Rather than continue to ridicule Mr Ring, They should admit that they dont know enough about the Geology of Christchurch to make any predictions about future quakes in the area or any where else for that matter.
It maybe that people will panic if they where told of the risks of their cliff top homes or the risks of building on reclaimed swamp land. Its more likely that they will lynch the dodgy developers and careless councils that allowed such development in the first place. I cant understand the stupid people who wanted to repair buildings damaged in the frist quake to preserve the cities hundred year "heritage". Why are they putting old buildings ahead of peoples safety.
Knock down those old dangerous buildings, build new ones on solid ground. the work will give people a sense of purpose and real hope for the future.
Mr Ring is not guilty of spreading false hope it is GeoNet who has told lies based on non science of politics.
I would say to anyone still living in ChristChurch that when it comes to earthquakes the third time wont be lucky....