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60 day precip Brazil
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Soybeans in Parana, Brazil, and Paraguay were irreversibly damaged by an intense drought in November-December. Hardly any rainfall was received for 60 days, stunting plants that failed to recover when rainfall improved January. The Rio Grande do Sul soybean planting was delayed by dryness, but there was no damage from spring-early summer drought.

Conditions improved for a time in January and February prompting Argentina growers to plant extra soybeans. But drought returned with a vengeance in March affecting all of Argentina, Paraguay and Rio Grande do Sul in South Brazil.

60 day precip Brazil
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The double-whammy effect of early and late season drought forced Argentina and Paraguay crop estimates steadily lower. The June Supply-Demand report pegged Argentina soybean production at 32 million metric tons, compared with 38 million originally and 46.2 mmt last season. Paraguay soybean estimates likewise have plummeted, finishing at 3.8 million metric tons and 45% lower than last year.

Brazil soybeans fared better than Argentina or Paraguay, due to a favorable crop in the tropical soybean states that largely offset losses in the south. Nonetheless, a poor crop from Parana and late season drought in Rio Grande do Sul reduced Brazil production estimates to 57-57.1 million metric tons, compared with 61 mmt last year - a 6.5% reduction.

South America soybean production including estimates for Bolivia and Uruguay as well as the "Big 3" producing nations may finish at 94.9 million metric tons, down from 116 mmt last year. A 21 mmt deficit improves export potential for the United States.
Brazil soybeans
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