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The USDA plugged in a low production estimate for the Canada 2009 canola crop on the June Supply-Demand report predicting the harvest would shrink 18% below last year -- a record setting season for both production and exports. The USDA estimate may not be low enough, considering how crop development has been delayed by severe cold and drought is threatening Alberta and western Saskatchewan.
The top canola province Alberta is experiencing the driest conditions since 2001. Subsoil moisture in the province had deteriorated to 38% poor, 42% fair, 19% good and 1% excellent, as of June 4th, according to the Alberta crop lettter. Key canola crop districts in central Alberta have not received any significant rainfall in the last 2-3 weeks.
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Long-lasting drought depleted field moisture
Alberta dryness has been prevalent since last fall, leading to a serious deficiency in stored ground moisture. Field moisture is much better in eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba where heavy spring snow melt replenished dry soil profiles. Eastern Manitoba fields flooded in April, due to excessive rain and snow water.
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Canada growers recall a historic drought in 2001, when the national canola yield was depressed 12% below trend and production plummeted to a 9-year low. Dry spring growing conditions gave way to a full-blown summer drought. Alberta was hard hit by drought because, like this season, subsoil moisture was badly depleted at the start of the growing season.
Conditions in May and early June have been unseasonably cold featuring frequent night frosts that retarded canola growth. Some of the more advanced canola fields may need to be reseeded in Alberta, according to the provincial crop letter. Very cold conditions will give way to strong warming next week.
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A warm ridge of high pressure will build into the western prairies on the weekend, according the forecasting models, raising afternoon temperatures into the mid and upper 70s F Sunday and Monday. Unseasonable warmth is expected to last for at least 5 days, and perhaps a week. Incredibly, temperatures will be 50 F warmer on Sunday than last week, when widespread frost occurred.
Where field moisture is adequate in Manitoba the heat wave will be welcome, as warmth and sunshine will stimulate rapid growth. However where conditions are very dry, afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s F would be more detrimental than helpful, increasing evaporation and drying up topsoil moisture. The forecast is not promising for heavy rainfall, but scattered light showers could occur in the next 5 days.
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