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Bullseye

Best of the Web: The Media loves "The Experts," until it's time to count Gaza's dead

Lex Syd
Current Affairs
Wed, 06 Aug 2025 18:23 UTC
gaza death toll graphic destruction counter
© Current Affairs
Public debate around Gaza fixates on a death toll that is probably half the size of the real number.

Far from being inflated by sneaky Hamas propagandists, the commonly cited death toll of the war in Gaza is an extreme undercount.

Virtually every news article about the Israel-Hamas war cites the death toll provided by the strip's Ministry of Health. Currently at 60,900 (and climbing by the day), the MOH toll is widely accepted as an accurate minimum. Still, journalists and political figures aligned with Israel often call it into question in a range of ways, from attaching the label "Hamas-controlled" to the Ministry itself to outright denying its accuracy. In 2023, even former President Joe Biden invoked this idea, saying that he had "no confidence in the number that the Palestinians are using."

Because the Ministry's death toll has attracted this undeserved controversy, the standard reporting line is to explain why the MOH figures are considered reliable. For example, the Washington Post recently published a detailed accounting of the names, and in some cases the photos, of roughly 18,500 children who are counted among the dead overall.
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Tsunami

Best of the Web: Death toll from rains, flash floods in Pakistan rises to 351

Berk Kutay Gokmen
Anadolu Agency
Sun, 17 Aug 2025 13:45 UTC
Local residents look at flash flooding due to heavy rains in a neighborhood of Mingora, the main town of Swat Valley, northwestern Pakistan.
Local residents look at flash flooding due to heavy rains in a neighborhood of Mingora, the main town of Swat Valley, northwestern Pakistan.
The death toll in Pakistan from flash floods and landslides caused by heavy rains has risen to 351, Geo News reported Sunday, citing authorities.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, 328 people lost their lives and many others were injured, while the northern region of Gilgit-Baltistan reported 12 deaths and Azad Jammu and Kashmir, also known as Pakistan-administered Kashmir, saw 11 fatalities.

Authorities are worried that the death toll could increase as rescue efforts continue in the hardest-hit regions, where intense floods and landslides have ravaged homes, businesses and infrastructure.

The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial government declared an emergency in all flood-affected areas as the death toll climbed and a search and rescue operation for the missing continues.

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Snowflake

Best of the Web: It's been snowing in really weird places this year

Gregg Frantz
SnowBrains
Fri, 15 Aug 2025 13:17 UTC
The Atacama Desert, Chile, is considered the driest place on earth. Much of the desert receives less than half an inch of rainfall per year, and some areas none at all for hundreds of years.
© John MooreThe Atacama Desert, Chile, is considered the driest place on earth. Much of the desert receives less than half an inch of rainfall per year, and some areas none at all for hundreds of years.
Mother Nature is unpredictable, and sometimes it can snow in places where most people think it could never happen. Even some of the hottest places on Earth have recorded snow, like the Sahara Desert. This past January, parts of the Gulf Coast were hit by a snowstorm that brought snow to Florida, Alabama, Texas, and Louisiana.

Snow is usually found in cold climates, but the right mix of temperature, elevation, and moisture can bring snowfall to even the most unexpected places. However, this year, a very rare and disruptive snowstorm swept across the Southeast, including areas that don't traditionally see snow. The historic snowstorm brought snow to the northern Gulf Coast on January 21, 2025. This snowstorm shattered longstanding snowfall records across the region, which were set during the February snowstorm of 1895. It's a harsh reminder that if the perfect conditions come together, even snow can fall in places where it usually does not.
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Russian Flag

Best of the Web: Scraping the barrel bottom: Attrition and cannibalization in the Russia-Ukraine war

Big Serge
Big Serge Thought
Thu, 14 Aug 2025 20:41 UTC
ukraine Pokrovsk russia capture
Loitering in the ruins of Pokrovsk
Author's note: This article will be relatively short compared to my standard offerings, but I wanted to get some thoughts on paper as the situation north of Pokrovsk develops. Ukraine is facing one of the worst operational crises of the war and the situation is liable to change rapidly. We clearly do not have a perfectly comprehensive picture of how the front is moving, but I think taking the pulse in real time is still valuable.
After three years of war, with the commentariat on both sides eagerly predicting the looming collapse of the enemy, it behooves one to develop a prudent aversion to histrionic predictions. However, it seems fairly obvious that the war in Ukraine is at a critical juncture, and August 2025 will receive considerable play in retrospective accounts of the conflict, as perhaps the last opportunity for Ukraine to cut a deal and slither out of its strategic grave.

On Friday, August 15, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are slated to meet in Alaska to discuss steps to end the war. Whether those talks will be productive remains to be seen, although Trump's acknowledgement that Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia signals that the White House is at least drifting towards a realism. Predictably, the Alaska meetings are being decried by the Europeans and the Professional Fascism Noticers as a redux of Chamberlain's Munich Agreement with Hitler, but this does not really matter. In the same sense that, for the alcoholic it is always five o'clock somewhere, for a certain type of person it is always 1938. For these people, World War Two is the only thing that ever happened, it is always happening, and it is always just about to happen.

Comment: As Trump has said, "Ukraine has no cards." By extension neither does the EU or the US. Their respective coffers of weaponry have also been attrited to alarmingly low levels. Whether or not an agreement is hammered out in Alaska is of no concern to Russia. They have time on their side, knowing reality will bite sooner than later.

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Tsunami

Best of the Web: Massive cloudburst triggers flash floods in Kishtwar, India - at least 60 killed, 100 missing (UPDATE)

Vikas Mehta
news24online.com
Thu, 14 Aug 2025 11:35 UTC
mmmmm
A massive cloudburst triggered flash floods at Chositi area in Jammu and Kashmir's Kishtwar on Thursday.

The incident took place at the starting point of the Machail Mata Yatra. As per reports, 15 people are feared dead in the incident.

"Rescue Operations have been started," said Deputy Commissioner Kishtwar, Pankaj Sharma.

Union MoS Dr Jitendra Singh said, "Just now spoke to DC Kishtwar Pankaj Kumar Sharma after receiving an urgent message from J&K LoP and local MLA Sunil Kumar Sharma. A massive cloud burst in Chositi area, which could result in substantial casualty. Administration has immediately swung into action, rescue team has left for the site. Damage evaluation and, necessary rescue and medical management arrangements being made."

J&K LG Manoj Sinha expressed grief over the cloudburst incident and his office posted a tweet on X, "Anguished by cloudburst in Chositi Kishtwar. Condolences to bereaved families & prayers for quick recovery of injured. Directed Civil, Police, Army, NDRF & SDRF officials to strengthen the rescue & relief operations and ensure all possible assistance is provided to the affected."


Comment: AFP reports:
At least 34 killed in Indian Kashmir flood triggered by 'cloudburst'

Powerful torrents driven by intense rain that smashed into a Himalayan mountain village in Indian-administered Kashmir killed at least 34 people on Thursday (Aug 14), a top local government official told AFP.

"We have found 34 dead bodies and rescued 35 injured people," said Pankaj Kumar Sharma, district commissioner of Kishtwar. "There are chances of more dead bodies being found."

An official in Kishtwar district, speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity, said initial reports "suggest around 50 people were washed away" in the flood.
Update August 15

tvcnews.tv reports:
At least 60 people have been killed, and more than 100 are missing, a day after sudden, torrential rain caused floods and landslides in Indian Kashmir, authorities and local media said on Friday .

On Thursday, gushing mudslides and floodwaters overwhelmed the town of Chasoti in Indian Kashmir, washing away pilgrims who had gathered for lunch before climbing up the hill to a popular pilgrimage spot.

Bags, clothes and other belongings, caked in mud, lay scattered amid broken electric poles and mud on Friday, as rescue workers used shovels, ropes and crossed makeshift bridges in an attempt to extricate people out of the debris.


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Tsunami

Best of the Web: Cloudburst triggers flash flood in Uttarakhand, India - Death toll likely to hit over 70 (UPDATE)

Geeta Pandey, Nitin Ramola
BBC
Tue, 05 Aug 2025 15:06 UTC
mmmmm
Rescuers are looking for dozens of people who are feared to be trapped after a massive cloudburst triggered heavy rains and flash floods in the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand.

Teams, including army and paramilitaries, have reached Dharali village in Uttarkashi district, which is believed to have borne the brunt of the floods.

Dramatic videos of the disaster show a giant wave of water gushing through the area, crumpling buildings in its path. A tourist spot, Dharali is populated with hotels, resorts and restaurants.

A cloudburst is an extreme, sudden downpour of rain over a small area in a short period of time, often leading to flash floods.

It took place at around 13:30 India time (08:00 GMT) when a large amount of water came down, swelling the Kheerganga river and sending tonnes of muddy waters gushing downwards on the hilly terrain, covering roads, buildings and shops in Dharali.


Comment: Update August 13

Agence France-Presse reports:
Officials in India say at least 68 people remain unaccounted for a week after a deadly wall of icy water swept away a Himalayan town and buried it in mud.

On top of four people reported to have been killed, the figure takes the likely overall toll of the Aug. 5 disaster to more than 70 dead.

Videos broadcast by survivors showed a terrifying surge of muddy water sweeping away multistory apartment blocks.




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Tsunami

Best of the Web: More record-breaking rainfall for August hits Kyushu, Japan leaving 3 dead - 14.5 inches of rain in just 6 HOURS


deshsewak.org
Tue, 12 Aug 2025 11:35 UTC
road is flooded follwoing a heavy rain in Nagasu town, Kumamoto prefecture, southern Japan
© Naoki Hiraoka/Kyodo NewsA road is flooded follwoing a heavy rain in Nagasu town, Kumamoto prefecture, southern Japan Monday, Aug. 11, 2025.
Record-breaking rainfall caused by a seasonal front hit Japan's Kyushu region on Tuesday, resulting in three confirmed deaths in Kagoshima, Kumamoto, and Fukuoka prefectures, local media reported.

Local authorities reported that the victims were caught in landslides and river flooding, according to national broadcaster NHK.

At least two people were also feared dead and several others remained missing in southwestern Japan on Monday as heavy rain continued to hit the region, sparking floods and landslides.

The mother and two children were rescued, while local police said they are confirming the identity of a man who was later found nearby with no vital signs, the report said.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued a heavy rain emergency warning for parts of Kumamoto Prefecture but downgraded it to a heavy rain warning in the afternoon, while still calling for residents in the affected areas to stay vigilant.

In the six hours through early Monday, Kumamoto Prefecture's hardest-hit Tamana logged 370 millimeters of rainfall, nearly doubling the city's average precipitation for all of August, according to the JMA.


Comment: A report from 4 days prior: 360,000 urged to evacuate in Kyushu, Japan as floods and landslides hit - record rainfall of 19.6 inches in 24 hours - twice the average for August

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Volcano

Best of the Web: Russia: Kamchatka's Krasheninnikov volcano erupts for the first time in 600 years


Euronews
Sun, 03 Aug 2025 13:26 UTC
mmmm
The Kamchatka branch of Russia's ministry for emergency services said an ash plume was recorded rising up 5-6 kilometres following the volcano's eruption, and drifted 75 kilometres eastward.

The Krasheninnikov volcano in Russia's Kamchatka has begun erupting for the first time in nearly 600 years, according to the Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT).

On the Telegram channel of the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, KVERT said that the last eruption took place in 1463, and none has been known to have occurred since.

It comes after the Ministry of Emergency Services in the Kamchatka region reported that a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck off the coast of Kamchatka.

The ministry issued a tsunami warning for the Kamchatka peninsula, which has since been lifted.


Comment: Related: Magnitude 6.8 earthquake strikes near Kuril Islands, Russia

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Robot

Best of the Web: AI for dummies: AI turns us into dummies

Charles Hugh Smith
Of Two Minds
Wed, 30 Jul 2025 19:26 UTC
chatGPT artificial intelligence open ai
© Open AI
Given that AI is fundamentally incapable of performing the tasks required for authentic innovation, we're de-learning how to innovate.
CHS's note: I just got called out by a programmer who uses AI who was furious and wrote "students cheat, always have, tell us something we don't already know". I responded: "did you read the MIT paper or the other link?" Of course he didn't: TL/DR, which proves my point. Even the programmer admitted he has to check AI's work.
The point here is *those who received real educations can use AI because they know enough to double-check it, but the kids using AI as a substitute for real learning will never develop this capacity.*

Those who actually have mastery can use AI and not realize the point I'm making isn't that AI is useless, the point is it fatally undermines real learning and thinking.
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Stop

Best of the Web: Judge dismisses lawsuit against anti-trafficking hero Tim Ballard, rules key evidence 'invalid'

Emma Pitts
Yahoo News
Tue, 22 Jul 2025 16:56 UTC
Tim Ballard Operation Underground Railroad
© House Homeland Security CommitteeTim Ballard, founder of Operation Underground Railroad, testifies before the House Homeland Security Committee in Washington on Sept. 13, 2023.
A judge dismissed a case against Tim Ballard, the founder and former CEO of Operation Underground Railroad, an anti-human sex trafficking organization, in a case brought against him and OUR in 2023 by his former assistant, Celeste Borys, and her husband, Mike Borys.

Ballard won on procedural grounds after a Utah district court judge ruled Monday that the key evidence had been improperly obtained, ultimately dropping the case against both Ballard and OUR. The ruling did not address the underlying claims of sexual misconduct or how organization leadership may have enabled the alleged inappropriate behavior.

"Shortly after Mr. Ballard was given notice of this lawsuit, we became suspicious that someone had hacked into his private email and his Google Drive and stolen his documents and his private email communications," Alexis Federico, one of Ballard's attorneys, told reporters during a news conference.

Comment: Mr. Ballard's attorneys have commented further regarding the lawsuits that erupted following the release of the Sound of Freedom:
Attorneys said of the five cases filed against Ballard in 2023, three have been dismissed by different judges. They said until now, they remained "mostly silent" because they wanted to litigate the allegations in court rather than through public opinion.

Now that several cases have been dismissed, Bernstein said, "It's high time for Tim to reclaim his hard-earned reputation as leader in the fight protecting women and children from trafficking."

"Mr. Ballard has spent his entire career, decades, fighting to protect women and children who've been victims of sexual assault and sex slavery," Attorney Mark Eisenhut said. "The evidence here is super strong that he has not assaulted any women ever."


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