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Putin confirms Syria ceasefire to go into effect tonight, peace talks to come

Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed agreement has been reached on a ceasefire in Syria and the start of peace talks.

"This agreement we've reached is very fragile, as we all understand. They require special attention and patience, professional attitude, and constant contact with our partners," Putin said at a meeting with Russian foreign and defense ministers.

The agreement, which was previously announced by Turkey, is detailed in three documents, Putin said.

"The first was signed by the Syrian government and the Syrian opposition to stop hostilities in the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic. The second one is a set of measures to control the ceasefire. The third document is a declaration of intention for Syrian settlement," the Russian president said.

The agreement is the result of joint efforts by Russia, Turkey, and Iran, the president said.

Comment: See also: Details on the alleged Turkish-Iranian-Russian ceasefire plan for Syria - to begin Dec. 29?

Some more details from and observations about Putin's meeting with Lavrov and Shoigu:
  • While Syria was not a signatory, it's significant that they came on board for a deal significantly brokered by Turkey. If nothing else, that just proves the skills of the Russian negotiators, and the reasonableness of the Syrians.
  • The Russian Defense Ministry has set up a communications hotline to maintain cooperation with Turkey.
  • Shoigu: "Over these two months [of negotiations with rebel leaders], we spent the bulk of the time on making sure that the maps indicate what we at one point asked our American colleagues to do." Slap! The rebels have indicated the exact areas under their control.
  • Lavrov extended an invitation to Egypt to join on as a truce guarantor. Eventually, they would like to have Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq and Jordan join on as well, not to mention the incoming Trump administration.
Update: Syrian FM Muallem told Syrian state TV the following:
We believe in Russian guarantees in ceasefire agreement, because Russia is our ally in fighting terrorism, but we do not trust Turkey.
The Kurdish PYD were not invited to join the deal (most likely at Turkey's request).


Airplane

Russian military aircraft crashes en route to Syria - entire Alexandrov Ensemble choir presumed dead (UPDATES)

© Google Maps
The plane reportedly disappeared from radar after leaving Sochi (marked in red) bound for Syria.
Russian air traffic controllers have lost contact with a Tu-154 airliner with 91 people on board, which disappeared from radar shortly after take-off in Sochi, the Russian Defense Ministry confirmed in a statement.

Ninety-one people were on board the aircraft, including 83 passengers and eight crew members, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

The plane took off from Sochi Adler Airport on a "planned flight" and failed to check in with the control tower at 5:40am Moscow time, the ministry said, adding that all rescue services in the region have been deployed to search for the missing plane.

Comment: Update (07:22 GMT) According to RT, rescue helicopters have discovered debris in the Black Sea from a Russian military transport plane which went off radar en route to Syria. The debris flew apart along the coast, across a 1.5 kilometer area, and is at depths of 50 to 100 meters, a source told RIA Novosti.

Documents belonging to the Channel One journalists have been found at the scene, TASS news agency reports, citing a security service source. A source told Interfax news agency that rescue workers have discovered several bodies at the scene. "Emergency workers are finding bodies, there are a few of them," the source said.

Military investigators of the Russian Investigative Committee have opened a criminal case into the crash of the Tu-154 plane of the Defense Ministry en route to Syria's Latakia, official spokesperson Svetlana Petrenko told TASS.

Update (17:06 GMT): Among those presumed dead: conductor, composer and head of the choir Valery Khailov, 65 members of the choir, three reporters each from Channel One Russia, NTV and Zvezda, and prominent charity activist and humanitarian worker Elizaveta Glinka ("Doctor Liza"). Glinka was awarded the Order of Friendship in 2012. This year, she received a state award for her humanitarian work.

So far, several bodies have been found, but no survivors. Footage of the rescue operation:


Vladimir Putin expressed his condolences and named December 26 a national day of mourning. Around the world, leaders are expressing their sympathies, even including officials in Ukraine.

The Alexandrov Ensemble army choir, formed in 1928, is vastly popular, and will have to be reformed almost from the bottom up. It's considered one of the greatest male choirs in the world. It's known for performing traditional Soviet and folk songs, and modern hits as well (everything from Queen to Lady Gaga). They certainly had a sense of humor! Some selections below:




Vadim Ananiev, one of the choir's three lead vocalists who were not on the flight, told RT:
"I was in shock. Couldn't believe it. I still don't believe it...

"Words fail me to express how I feel right now. I cannot fully comprehend what happened. My wife is crying, my children don't understand what happened. Think we'll probably go to a church to pray..."
Ananiev's wife recently had a child, so he was granted leave to be with his family.

Russia, and the world, has suffered a massive cultural loss. As a tribute, here is the choir performing the Russian national anthem, recorded back in 2004:


Update: Without many details, the Russian authorities are speculating that perhaps mechanical failure or pilot error is at fault. But some experts are also considering a bomb on board. (Since the crash occurred in Russian airspace, and was a military flight, they are discounting the terror hypothesis.) The Saker comments on the possibilities so far:
  1. Mechanical failure: unlikely. The Tu-154 is a three engine aircraft and an extremely strong beast. It's safety record is comparable to most aircraft of its time, even though it was often used in extreme conditions other aircraft types did not have to operate in. The Tu-154 had already taken enough altitude to attempt a return to base or even a water landing. The weather that day was good. Besides, the crew did not communicate any problem. Thus the disaster had to be instantaneous.
  2. Fuel problem: unlikely. Fuel problems are always a prime suspect when a crash occurs, but even if the engines had suddenly experienced problems or even a full shutdown, the pilots would have had the time to report this. Also, like any other aircraft, the Tu-154 can glide and maneuver without power.
  3. Bird strike: unlikely. I am not even sure that there have ever been a triple engine failure due to a bird strike but even if there has been, they crew could have reported it which it did not. And, again, the case of US Airways flight 1549 has shown that even a catastrophic birdstrike does not prevent a fully loaded airliner from attempting to land.
  4. Pilot error: highly unlikely. The guys flying this aircraft where extremely experienced and while human error is always possible, it mostly results in situation were it can be reported. The Tu-154 was a very complex aircraft to operate and it had its weaknesses - but these were all very well known to the Russian crews and this crew was a very experienced one.
  5. Missile: unlikely. The Tu-154 has three engines including one mounted over the top of the rear of the fuselage and a MANPAD type missile warhead does not have the kind of blast radius capable of taking out all three of them. As for bigger missiles, the Black Sea coasts of Russia is very tightly controlled by the Russian military and security services (as is the entire Black Sea) and to get that close to the city of Sochi would be risky and difficult.
  6. Sabotage/bomb: most likely simply because all other causes are even less likely. True, this was a military aircraft with, supposedly, good security. Alas, I can confirm from personal experience that if you look Russian and speak Russian like a native and if you act the right way, military security in Russia is nowhere near as good as it should be. However, if you speak with an accent or look foreign, and that includes speaking with a Caucasian accent or looking like somebody from the Caucasus, you would have a much harder time beating the controls.
For the sake of comprehensiveness, we'd add a freak natural event (e.g. a meteor airburst, but that too seems unlikely at this point, barring any eyewitness reports or scientific observations), or an exotic weapon (impossible to even guess a probability, barring physical evidence).

What seems certain is that whatever it was, it was instantaneous, and the plane seems to have been blown apart in midair while it was still gaining altitude. Fragments of the plane were found 1.5 km from shore; a body was found 6 km away; and more fragments were found 8 km away.

Update (Dec. 26): By last night, rescue teams had recovered 11 bodies, including fragments of other bodies. One source says that the majority of the bodies may still be in the fuselage, at a depth of about 60 meters. Four fragments of the plane, including one 4 meters long, have been discovered at a depth of 27 meters one mile from the coast. Two pieces of the cockpit have been recovered. The search team now comprises 45 ships, 12 aircraft, 10 helicopters, 3 drones, and 3500 people. So far none of the flight recorders have been recovered.

Interestingly, practically no one knew that the plane would refuel in Sochi. It had been scheduled to refuel in North Ossetia, but diverted due to poor weather there: "Only two border guards and one customs officer came onboard, and only one navigator shortly left the plane to control refueling." There were no unauthorized people near the plane while in Sochi.

According to the FSB, their main working hypotheses exclude sabotage and terrorism for the moment:
  1. foreign objects getting into the engine;
  2. poor quality fuel, resulting in loss of power and failure of the engines;
  3. piloting error; and
  4. technical failure of the aircraft.
They say that so far "no facts indicating a possibility of a terrorist act or diversion aboard the aircraft." The FSB has found witnesses and dashcam footage, which is currently being examined.


Updates (Dec. 27): The Tu-154's main flight data recorder was found at the depth of 17 meters (56 feet), Russia's Defense Ministry said. The black box was located some 1,600 meters (one mile) from shore by a FALCON underwater drone. The black box will be delivered to the Central Research Institute of the Air Force of Defense Ministry in the city of Lyubertsy, a Moscow suburb, within the next few hours, the ministry reported.

The ministry added that five more fragments of the crashed plane have been located, including the fuselage and parts of the engine, at the depth of 30 meters (98ft). Some 45 ships, 15 underwater drones, 192 divers, 12 planes, and 5 helicopters are currently involved in the search, according to the ministry.

A source told TASS earlier that one of the key theories as to why the plane crashed "is that foreign objects penetrated the engine," adding that other possible causes, such as pilot error and technical failure, are also being investigated.

An apparent eyewitness in Sochi - who also happens to be a Coast Guard, who also happens to be an FSB employee - gives the following report:
An employee of Coast Guard FSB Border Troops became a witness to the tragedy. At the time of the incident he was on board a boat in the water near Sochi. He said that the plane was taking off from the Adler Airport, but instead of climbing out, began to descend rapidly, as if to make a landing on the sea surface.

At the same time the border guard said that the position of the Tu-154 in the air seemed strange even for a landing as the plane flew unnaturally nose-high, like a motorcycle doing a wheelie. A moment later, the plane, according to him, touched the sea surface with its tail end which broke off on impact, and quickly sank.

Experts commenting on the incident in Kommersant expressed the assumption that the crash was somehow linked to the actions of the crew. According to them, the plane began to lose speed and height due to pilot error, trying to climb out too vigorously. As a result, the Tu-154 could be at supercritical angles of attack that led to the loss of lift of the wings and the subsequent descent of the liner.
And here's a variation on that report:
A key witness to the tragedy is an employee of the FSB (Federal Security Service) Border Guard, who was on a speedboat near the Black Sea coast at the moment of the disaster early on Dec. 25, reports the Kommersant business daily, citing a source in the law-enforcement agencies.

The witness told the investigators that after take-off the plane immediately began to descend toward the sea instead of gaining altitude and that it appeared that it intended to land on the water. The plane's position was strange, said the witness: It was descending at a low speed with an unnaturally turned-up nose.

Kommersant writes that the border guard compared the landing aircraft to a motorcycle speeding on its back wheel alone. In an instant, according to the FSB source, the Tu-154 touched the sea's surface with its tail, which broke off upon impact, crashed into the waves and quickly sank.
The Russian Transport Minister said that "the plane disintegrated into several parts, so it is not possible to talk about any main part" to be searched for.
There have been unconfirmed reports that the aircraft crashed into the Black Sea at a speed of over 500km/h (310mph), TASS reported, citing a source in law enforcement. Before the aircraft crashed, the crew was allegedly trying to perform a maneuver to its right, but the plane's nose was turned up too far, the source said.
The purported final words of the pilot were allegedly leaked to media. A source told Life News the pilot can be heard yelling "the flaps, damn it!" followed by "Commander, we're going down!". However, Transport Minister Sokolov had earlier said the recovered black box did not contain voice recordings, but technical parameters. Another source told TASS that preliminary analysis of the recorder data was complete and suggests that the crash was caused by "mistakes made by the pilot of the aircraft." One witness apparently filmed the take-off, flight, and crash.

Updates (Dec. 28): Divers have retrieved the second flight data recorder from the wreckage of the Russian Tu-154 in the Black Sea; they've also discovered 12 large plane fragments and 1,547 smaller ones, the Russian Defense Ministry stated Wednesday.
"The second Tu-154 flight recorder was found and raised from the bottom less than half an hour ago," the ministry said in a statement.

It added that 12 large plane fragments and 1,547 small fragments have been found since the start of the search and rescue operation.
Russian news agency TASS cites security services as saying that rescuers have recovered 13 bodies and 223 body parts so far.
© Russian Emergency Ministry (epa)
A handout photo made available by the Russian Emergencies Ministry shows a rescue team retrieving debris from the crashed Russian plane off the coast of Sochi on December 27.
TASS also quoted unnamed security officials as saying that divers were focusing on the submerged tail section containing two flight data recorders. The second recorder recovered was apparently the cockpit voice recorder.


Update (Dec. 29): According to a security services source, rescuers have recovered and passed to the military what they believe is film belonging to a third flight data recorder belonging to Russia's Tu-154 aircraft that crashed in the Black Sea.
Rescuers have recovered and passed to the military what they believe is film belonging to a third flight data recorder belonging to Russia's Tu-154 aircraft that crashed in the Black Sea, a security services source told RIA Novosti.

"A lot of film has been found, most likely from the third [black box]. The entire film is collected in a bucket and handed to the military," the source said Thursday.

The source said earlier that the third recorder has not yet been found. The first black box was sent to Moscow for decryption on Tuesday, while the Defense Ministry said Wednesday that a third black box has been lifted from the seabed.
The main recovery phase is now over, but the investigation will take some time. Investigators say they have ruled out an onboard explosion, but a terrorist attack is still not ruled out:
"It is apparent that the equipment didn't work as intended. What caused this is for the experts to establish. A technical commission has been created to do this work. Preliminary results may be available in January 2017," Transport Minister Maksim Sokolov, who heads the state commission handling the crash, said during a media briefing in Moscow.

Sokolov's comments somewhat contradicted those of General Lieutenant Sergey Bainetov, the chief of the Russian Defense Ministry's Flight Safety Service, who said that data from the first flight recorder recovered from the crash site hadn't pointed to any obvious technical failure.
...
Sokolov concurred that a more detailed technical analysis was necessary before coming to any conclusions.

The minister said that a preliminary report would not be made public until all of the transcripts recovered from the flight recorders have been analyzed. He also asked the media to refrain from speculation or reporting unconfirmed information regarding the investigation.
...
Rescuers have found 19 bodies and over 230 body parts at the crash site in the Black Sea off Sochi. Identification of those remains will require extensive DNA testing. Gene samples have been taken from the crash victims' relatives, and testing is already underway, Sokolov said.

Divers managed to lift 13 large fragments of the Tu-154 from the sea, as well as to collect almost 2,000 smaller ones. The plane was heavily damaged by the impact with the water, the minister said, adding that specialists believe that enough fragments have been recovered to determine the cause of the crash.

Bainetov commented on a media report which claimed that the last words heard in the cabin of the doomed plane were "the flaps, damn it!" The defense official wouldn't comment on the accuracy of the leaked information, but he did say that, even if the information was true, it would not necessarily mean that the flaps were the cause of the crash.

Bainetov said that the Tu-154's last flight was only 70 seconds long. It climbed to about 250 meters and flew at a speed of 360 to 370 km/h before plunging into water.
Also, the final words in the cockpit before the crash has been released to the media:
The recording of the cockpit exchanges between the flight deck crew comprising the captain, Major Roman Volkov, his co-pilot, a navigator and an engineer.

- ...Speed 300... (not clear)

- (not clear)

- Stands are off, commander

- (not clear)

- Oh ouch!

A sharp alarm signal

- The flaps, b***h, what the f***!

- Altimeter!

- We are... (not clear)

Alarm signal warning of dangerous proximity to the ground.

- Not clear

- We are falling, commander!

End of the recording.



Magic Wand

The truth about Aleppo you won't see in MSM: Victory Tribute

© Via YouTube/SyrianGirlpartisan
A side you will never see from the pro-al-qaeda Western mainstream media. They want you to believe that Aleppo has "fallen". Aleppo hasn't fallen, she has risen like a phoenix! This is a victory as historical as Stalingrad.

We made this video to offer thanks to all those who supported us, to honor the heroes who resisted and validate the Syrian people's right to real freedom from Western-sponsored tyranny.


Monkey Wrench

Manufactured Discontent: Syrian People Never Desired Revolution

Apparently, the US Left has yet to figure out that Washington doesn't try to overthrow neoliberals. If Syrian President Bashar al-Assad were a devotee of the Washington Consensus - as Counterpunch's Eric Draitser seems to believe - the United States government wouldn't have been calling since 2003 for Assad to step down. Nor would it be overseeing the Islamist guerilla war against his government; it would be protecting him.

There is a shibboleth in some circles that, as Eric Draitser put it in a recent Counterpunch article, the uprising in Syria "began as a response to the Syrian government's neoliberal policies and brutality," and that "the revolutionary content of the rebel side in Syria has been sidelined by a hodgepodge of Saudi and Qatari-financed jihadists." This theory appears, as far as I can tell, to be based on argument by assertion, not evidence.

A review of press reports in the weeks immediately preceding and following the mid-March 2011 outbreak of riots in Daraa—usually recognized as the beginning of the uprising—offers no indication that Syria was in the grips of a revolutionary distemper, whether anti-neo-liberal or otherwise. On the contrary, reporters representing Time magazine and the New York Times referred to the government as having broad support, of critics conceding that Assad was popular, and of Syrians exhibiting little interest in protest. At the same time, they described the unrest as a series of riots involving hundreds, and not thousands or tens of thousands of people, guided by a largely Islamist agenda and exhibiting a violent character.

Gold Seal

East Aleppo Diaries: Testimony from Hanano Shatters Corporate Fake News

© Vanessa Beeley
Clean water supplies are replenished in recently liberated East Aleppo district of Hanano.
"Before it was hell, now we can move forward and breathe again" ~ Mohammed, from Hanano

On the 11th December 2016 I visited Hanano in East Aleppo. Hanano had been liberated days previously by the Syrian Arab Army and allies including Hezbollah and Russia. Hanano had been under a Nusra Front [Al Qaeda] terrorist regime for the last, almost, five years.

The testimonies we filmed testified to starvation, wholesale deprivation of humanitarian aid, summary executions, torture and the use of civilians as human shields. Nusra Front were the overlord of the district, controlling an estimated 22 militant brigades funded, equipped and armed by NATO and Gulf states and condemning the Syrian civilians to a life of fear and imprisonment in their own homes.

Women were married, raped and discarded en masse, children were imprisoned and anyone caught supporting the Syrian Government could be executed or imprisoned & tortured. The very antithesis of the narrative being run by the corporate media for the entire duration of the almost five years of wholesale suffering endured by both West and East Aleppo, carved into two and targeted by the Nusra Front-led terrorists and militants.

Camera

What US-inspired freedom looks like: Aleppo, then and now


Comment: The Guardian prefaces this photo essay with the following: "Aleppo was Syria's most populous city when the civil war arrived in July 2012, but the conflict has taken a huge toll, with Russian airstrikes since September 2015 causing intense devastation, as these before and after images show."

Bollocks. This is what war does to a country. As if Russia, or even Syria for that matter, had any desire to destroy Aleppo. This is what the U.S. does to Middle Eastern countries. It is what the U.S. has done to Syria. The war never would have happened if not for the U.S. policy to radicalize "opposition" to Bashar al-Assad, to move in foreign jihadis to launch a violent revolution to topple the secular government and install a radical Islamist one in its place.

Is it therefore any wonder that the U.S. are so hated around the world?


Aleppo's citadel photographed on 9 August 2010 and 13 December 2016.
© Sandra Auger/Omar Sanadiki/Reuters
© Sandra Auger/Omar Sanadiki/Reuters

Attention

Report: Fourteen US Coalition military officers captured by Syrian Special Forces in Aleppo!

© Vanessa Beeley for 21st Century Wire
Syrian Army soldier holds up Al Nusra Front (al Qaeda in Syria) flag in the Umayyed Mosque, Old City, after government troop liberated terrorist-occupied East Aleppo this week
According to two reports coming out of Aleppo today, at least 14 US Coalition military officers were captured this morning in an East Aleppo bunker by Syrian Special Forces.

This story was quietly leaked by Voltaire.net, who announced,"The Security Council is sitting in private on Friday, December 16, 2016, at 17:00 GMT, while NATO officers were arrested this morning by the Syrian Special Forces in a bunker in East Aleppo."

Fares Shehabi MP, a prominent Syrian Parliamentarian and head of Aleppo's Chamber of Commerce published the names of the Coalition officers on his Facebook page on the 15th December (emphasis added):
  • Mutaz Kanoğlu - Turkey
  • David Scott Winer - USA
  • David Shlomo Aram - Israel
  • Muhamad Tamimi - Qatar
  • Muhamad Ahmad Assabian - Saudi
  • Abd-el-Menham Fahd al Harij - Saudi
  • Islam Salam Ezzahran Al Hajlan - Saudi
  • Ahmed Ben Naoufel Al Darij - Saudi
  • Muhamad Hassan Al Sabihi - Saudi
  • Hamad Fahad Al Dousri - Saudi
  • Amjad Qassem Al Tiraoui - Jordan
  • Qassem Saad Al Shamry - Saudi
  • Ayman Qassem Al Thahalbi - Saudi
  • Mohamed Ech-Chafihi El Idrissi - Moroccan
Listen to Fares Shehabi's interview on the Sunday Wire radio show: 'Liberation Aleppo'

Comment: Update (Dec. 19): Syria's UN envoy, Bashar al-Jaafari read the names of these foreign military and intelligence officers at a UN press conference today, saying they are currently in E. Aleppo strongholds and trying to escape. Here's the relevant part (full video here):


As Jaafari says, this is the reason for the hysterics from the West over the past days (and weeks, and months). Ever since Aleppo was encircled, the Western military "instructors" embedded with terrorists groups were trapped. The West and its allies desperately wanted to get them out and avoid a PR nightmare. They failed. Jaafari: "We are going to catch them and show them to you." We highly recommend readers watch Jaafari's full Q&A session. Despite the utter seriousness of the topics, he absolutely slams several of the ignorant journalists with some hilarious responses. To one question about the foreign military officers, he corrects the journalist, saying, "No, no, they are 'Syrian moderate opposition' - genetically modified."

Update: Rodney Atkison at Novorossia Today writes:
230 US Army instructors and 54 British troops, 8 French and two Dutch artillery specialists were trapped in Aleppo with ISIS jihadists by Syrian and Russian forces. The Americans asked the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to keep this quiet - for obvious reasons! I have this from a reliable source.



Eye 2

Egotistical, sociopathic U.S. journalists who 'danced' on Russian Ambassador's grave

© Valeriy Sharifulin/Sputnik
Meeting in Moscow the aircraft with the body of Russian Ambassador to Turkey Andrei Karlov who was killed in Ankara on December 19.
Two American journalists have crossed a line in their reaction to the murder of a Russian diplomat this week. They are both a disgrace to the profession they purport to practice.

While never one to advocate censorship, I've often believed that perhaps certain people should be restricted from access to the op-ed pages. Not because I disagree with their views or think they should be muted. In fact, the wider a variety of voice and opinions the better, to my mind. No, this is rather down to how they are making themselves look stupid and seem blissfully unaware of it. Thus, silencing them would be a humanitarian gesture, giving them time to reflect on their sociopathic behavior and relentless egotism.

Following the appalling murder of Russia's Ambassador to Turkey, Andrey Karlov, on Monday two particular individuals have penned diatribes so lacking in basic humanity that it's fair to question their sanity, let alone decency. They are Brian Whitmore of US state broadcaster Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and Gersh Kuntzman from New York's Daily News.

First the latter. Under the headline "Assassination of Russian Ambassador Andrei Karlov was not terrorism, but retribution for Vladimir Putin's war crimes," Kuntzman tells us how "I, for one, am shedding no tears for Andrei Karlov." He goes on to explain that the slain diplomat effectively deserved to die and draws equivalence with "Ernst vom Rath, the Nazi ambassador to France, who was gunned down inside his consulate by a Jewish student in 1938."

Wine n Glass

Russian hacking accusation: This remarkable spasm of stupidity is destroying the web of lies about Russia


Inconceivable just a few short months ago
Russia has been scoring so many wins over the past weeks and months: routing the US and its ISIS-supporting allies in Syria, Trump winning, Rex Tillerson's nomination, Brexit, the Italian vote, the leading candidates in the French elections ... sometimes one has to pinch oneself when reading the morning news - how could it possibly be going so well after so many tough years?

Just when we thought it couldn't get any better, along comes another gift: this remarkable spasm of stupidity from the dark side - the neocon-dominated, big media / security state / rotten politician / axis of evil. By picking up this Russia hacking theme and running with it, they are unwittingly destroying their own carefully constructed web of lies about Russia, which they have so artfully woven over the years, and hoodwinked many Americans and Europeans into believing.

MIB

Pepe Escobar: Turkey's 'Sarajevo Moment' - Who Profits From Russian Ambassador's Assassination?

© Umit Bektas / Reuters
Flag-wrapped coffin of late Russian Ambassador to Turkey Andrei Karlov is carried to a plane during a ceremony at Esenboga airport in Ankara, Turkey, December 20, 2016
Let's cut to the chase: Ankara 2016 is not Sarajevo 1914. This is not a prelude to WWIII. Whoever plotted the assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey Andrey Karlov - a cool, calm, collected old-school diplomat - risks a mighty blowback.

The assassin, Mevlut Mert Altintas, was a 22-year-old police academy graduate. He was suspended from the Turkish National Police (TNP) over suspected links to the Fethullahist Terrorist Organization (FETO) after the failed July 15 putsch against Erdogan but returned to duty in November.

It's no secret Gulenists heavily infiltrate the TNP; so a particular outcome of the attack will be an, even more, relentless Erdogan/AKP crackdown on the Gulen network. The Turkish investigation will have to focus not only on the (major) security service fail at Ankara's modern art center - but way beyond. It's not very reassuring that Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu put out a terse statement a very long three hours after the facts.

The killer in a black suit and tie shouted slogans about revenge "for Aleppo" - the requisite "Allahu Akbar" included - in both Turkish and broken Arabic, something that might establish a connection to an Islamist group's rhetoric, although that's not conclusive evidence.