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The memo that triggered a sweeping federal investigation into Trump and GOP electors relied on thin evidence, internal bias, and media reports, according to former prosecutors, FBI officials, and congressional leaders.

The FBI's justification for launching its Arctic Frost investigation into Donald Trump and hundreds of Republican allies over the 2020 election has come under scrutiny after the release of a memo experts say lacked evidence, legal grounding, and precedent. According to a Just the News report, former federal prosecutors and FBI agents reviewing the document identified deep flaws in its rationale, likening it to the discredited "Crossfire Hurricane" probe from 2016.

The Arctic Frost inquiry began in April 2022, shortly after Trump signaled his intention to run again for president. It was based on claims that Trump's team submitted alternate electors as part of a conspiracy to obstruct the congressional certification of the 2020 election. But the memo relied on CNN articles and testimony from the Democrat-led January 6 Committee, raising concerns about political bias and the use of circular reporting.

House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, who obtained the memo from FBI Director Kash Patel, said the same mindset that drove the Russia probe reappears here. "Sure looks that way," Jordan told Just the News.
"Same mindset that said we're going to put the dossier in the intelligence community assessment, even though we know the dossier is garbage. That same mindset that was there in 2016 is the mindset we see now in 2022 with Arctic Frost, and then as it transformed into Jack Smith, special counsel later in 2022."
The opening electronic communication categorized the probe as a "Sensitive Investigative Matter" (SIM), approved by Assistant Special Agent in Charge Timothy Thibault — later criticized for anti-Trump bias — and FBI officials Steve D'Antuono and Paul Abbate. The memo stated it was opening a full investigation on the basis of "evidence suggesting" individuals tied to Trump conspired to submit fraudulent electoral certificates.

Critics argue this standard was insufficient. Former U.S. Attorney Joe DiGenova called the language "juvenile on a matter of constitutional dimensions." He added:
"You don't investigate a President on 'the evidence suggests' standard. A grave act of interfering in an election... requires the highest evidentiary standard not met here."
Former FBI agent Jonathan Gilliam said the Arctic Frost approval chain "is from the cast of characters who disliked Trump." He added that the memo lacked real evidence: "I see no evidence other than a Steve Bannon interview with CNN and things like that. That's not evidence."

Bobby Charles, a former federal prosecutor and ex-Assistant Secretary of State, said:
"You cannot open an investigation on the pretense that you would like to spontaneously criminalize something that has historically...been legal. That itself is illegal."
Charles also criticized the reliance on media reports, calling it "circular reporting."

According to Senator Chuck Grassley, the DOJ issued 197 subpoenas under Arctic Frost targeting over 400 Republicans. The House Judiciary Committee also revealed that at least 160 Republicans close to Trump were listed for possible investigation.

Jack Smith inherited the Arctic Frost investigation later in 2022 and indicted Trump in August 2023. His case was dismissed by Judge Tanya Chutkan in November 2024 after Trump's reelection, citing DOJ policy that a sitting president cannot be prosecuted.

Smith's January 2025 report stated Trump and allies used alternate electors in seven states to "obstruct the congressional certification proceeding." But alternate elector slates had been submitted before — by Democrats.

In 1960, Democrats in Hawaii submitted a competing slate before a recount flipped the state to Kennedy. In 1876, South Carolina Democrats also claimed to be legitimate electors in a disputed election. Legal scholars note that no criminal charges emerged in either case.

Several GOP states' 2020 alternate elector documents included language specifying that the certificates would only be valid if lawsuits succeeded or state legislatures approved them. Even Pennsylvania's then-attorney general said their wording shielded them from forgery charges.

Smith may soon testify before the GOP-led Senate Judiciary Committee, where lawmakers are expected to press him on what they call a politically motivated investigation. Recently declassified records show Arctic Frost was greenlit at the highest levels of the Biden administration and that the White House counsel's office coordinated with Thibault to access phones belonging to Trump and Pence.

Thibault's lawyers have denied wrongdoing. "Mr. Thibault welcomes any investigation of these false allegations, regardless of his retirement," they said.

As more Arctic Frost documents surface, Republicans are intensifying claims that federal agencies were used to undermine Trump's 2024 candidacy. GOP officials argue the probe weaponized legal tools to target political dissent — and that its origins, like those of Crossfire Hurricane, demand full investigation.