According to the current forecasts,
© Anthony AdamsAccording to the current forecasts, Australia is on track to record its fifth-consecutive year of above-average rainfall.
Australia has experienced its wettest January-August since 2011, laying the platform for 2024 to become our fifth consecutive year with above-average rain — and potentially among the dampest ever.

While September is on average our driest month, the current spell of wet weather will continue this weekend as twin cloud bands deliver further rain to southern states.

Heavy falls and flooding are possible on the NSW north coast, the crescendo of an unseasonable north-west cloudband that brought rain to the majority of the country this week, including record falls in parts of WA and the NT.

Thankfully, the AFL Grand Final appears set to be played in good conditions — after a sunny and warm day today in Melbourne, a second rainband will arrive across south-eastern states by Sunday, while a third band of rain is possible next week.

Flood risk for NSW north coast

After a reliably dry start to the month, the past seven days brought a widespread soaking to Australia, culminating in heavy falls on the NSW northern coast during Friday.

In the 24 hours to 9am, Comboyne, near Port Macquarie, was drenched by 124 millimetres, the town's heaviest September fall in 16 years.

The heaviest rain then shifted to the Northern Rivers through Friday as a low-pressure system formed about 200 kilometres offshore from Evans Head.

The Tasman low is predicted by modelling to make a close swipe of the coast today, potentially bringing widespread falls near 100mm from the Gold Coast to Kempsey.

Heavy rain and flooding are possible this weekend near the Queensland and NSW border from a low pressure system just off the coast.

This impending deluge prompted the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) to issue a flood watch for the Wilsons, Richmond, Orara, Bellinger and Kalang rivers, warning of minor to moderate flooding this weekend.

The system may even produce pockets of flash flooding and damaging wind gusts, before the low retreats away from the coast on Sunday.

Solid week of rain continues this weekend

The extensive rain this week was the result of an infeed of tropical moisture across the country, a weather pattern far more common in summer and autumn, which then interacted with waves of colder air from the south

At least a few millimetres has fallen over most of Australia since last weekend, apart from across tropical Queensland, and included a handful of record September falls in the Kimberley and central outback.

Most of Australia has observed rain during the past week,
© Tom SaundersMost of Australia has observed rain during the past week, including totals above 50mm in parts of eastern NSW and across the north-west.
Most of Australia has observed rain during the past week, including totals above 50mm in parts of eastern NSW and across the north-west.

While the rainband contracted to the east coast on Friday, a second band was already developing across WA - and once again it brought record dry season rain to pockets of the Kimberley.

Ellenbrae received 77mm to 9am on Friday, a remarkable figure considering the site's September average is less than 1mm.

A rare spring northwest cloudband has delivered record rain to parts of outback Australia.

This follow up dry season deluge was again due to an unseasonable intrusion of humid air from the north, a consequence of lower than normal pressure and warmer than normal waters off Australia's north-west coast.

The moisture reached southern WA on Friday and clashed with a cold front to generate a broad cloudband.

The system will track east this weekend, spreading about 1mm to 10mm of rain through SA today - reaching Adelaide close to sunset.

Ahead of the rain, Melbourne will enjoy a dry northerly airstream on Saturday, setting up a sunny AFL grand final with a pleasant afternoon maximum of 22 degrees Celsius.

The rainband will gradually spread through Tasmania, Victoria and south-west NSW on Sunday, also bringing about 1mm to 10mm, while showers continue from the first system across much of eastern NSW.

The two areas of precipitation will merge over eastern NSW on Monday, then clear off the coast during the evening, however, modelling indicates yet another rainband could form over WA by Wednesday, then follow a similar path across southern states later in the week.

Australia's run of wet years reaches five

Multiple wet months will ensure Australia's rainfall in 2024 is again above average, a trend that started in 2020.

By the end of winter, the average rain across the country had reached 431mm, 100mm above normal and the wettest January to August since 2011.


The rainbands this September will further boost the total, and with three months remaining in the year, the annual average of 459mm should be comfortably exceeded.

The year could even become one the wettest on record — average falls for the remainder of the year would be enough for 2024 to rank as the 13th wettest year since 1900.

A small increase in rain of just 15 per cent from October to December would place this year in the top 10, a realistic scenario considering the BOM's latest seasonal update indicates a clear swing to a wetter-than-normal three months across most of Australia.

A wet finish to the year is likely, according to BOM, for much of Australia

The expected wet finish to 2024 is mainly due to very warm water temperatures off the northern coast and the possibility of La Niña forming in the Pacific Ocean.