Ivan Timofeev, programme director of the Valdai Club
RTWed, 14 Aug 2024 22:03 UTC
© Getty Images / Getty ImagesRepublican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump holds a rally at Montana State University on August 9, 2024
Despite his lofty talk, the ex-president won't be able to change the diplomatic course
Former US President Donald Trump has already stated on several occasions that he could improve relations with Russia and solve the Ukrainian crisis, if he returns to the White House. He has also insisted that he would never have allowed the conflict to start. However, such statements should be seen as rhetoric and populism rather than Trump's actual policy agenda.
The tycoon-turned-politician will not be able to do what he claims, and for many reasons. There is the example of
his first term, when he made such statements but failed to improve relations with Moscow. On the one hand, he was severely handicapped by the so-called "RussiaGate" hoax election scandal and, on the other,
US-Russia relations were already in a rut, and getting worse and worse.At the same time,
the situation was much more favorable during Trump's first term in office, especially as there were no military actions on the scale we are seeing now. Nevertheless, he wasn't able to put the relationship back on a constructive track.
Trump also promised to improve relations with North Korea but didn't achieve much in this area either.
Indeed,
Trump even increased sanctions against Russia. And while he was moderate enough in implementing the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA),
he was assertive in sanctioning Nord Stream-2, seeing it as a way to push Moscow out of the Western European gas market and open it up for American LNG.Today the problems are much bigger, there are military operations going on. And it is completely unclear how Trump is going to improve relations. Of course, the Republican is an advocate of transactional ties, but he is primarily concerned with the interests of the US.
Trump doesn't care much about Europe - or, indeed, other countries. But we can see that his first term had no impact on NATO or on America's relations with its Western allies.So, it is unlikely that anything will change now. Moreover, it's not just about the Ukrainian crisis. We remember the list of Russian demands made at the end of 2021, and the West's reaction to them. And Trump is unlikely to be able to turn the situation towards a compromise.
First and foremost, Trump is an anti-China politician, and his presidency will be of primary concern to Beijing. Russia doesn't care whether Trump or Harris becomes US president, as the structure of its relations with Washington will not change fundamentally.This post was originally published on
Publico.ru web-portal, translated and edited by the RT team
Comment:
1) It is possible that the article is a little disappointing for people in the US who these days are enveloped in election talks 24/7. For an American voter it may not be insignificant whether a distinction is made between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, irrespective of whether they vote, and if they do, whether that vote is counted. The presence of Trump on the stage, and still standing, probably offers those who follow the news and opportunity to understand more about our world. Whether the opportunity is made use of or not it up to them but it is there, and it is different from having had Nicky Haley and Kamala Harris as the two contenders.
2) The author could also have mentioned the Minsk agreements as a missed opportunity while Trump was US President. US was not a part of this agreement, but the Trump's administration did little to help it along, the preparation for the conflict we have today continued during the Trump presidency, as intended during the days of the previous US president, Barack Obama, under whom we had the Maidan coup in 2014. For this reason, giving Biden the credit as reported in this article: 13 Aug, 2024 04:22
'Stupid' Biden threats caused Ukraine conflict - Trump - is not the whole story. Trump might think he can do better this time: 13 Aug, 2024 08:03
Trump outlines hopes for relations with Putin but Trump still needs to become president, and before that there is time to make the conflict deeper and more difficult to get out of. Is that what is happening?
9 Aug, 2024 08:22
Ukraine wants US help to retain part of Russian border region - WaPo
Officials in Kiev reportedly believe easing restrictions on the use of ATACMS missiles could give them leverage in talks with Moscow
[...]
As fighting continues in the region, an aide to Vladimir Zelensky told the Washington Post on condition of anonymity that Ukrainian officials have requested US approval to conduct strikes using ATACMS - which have a range of up to 300km - to target Russian airfields. The paper noted that this decision "could allow Kiev to hold a portion of Kursk (Region) for some time."
"This will give them the leverage they need for negotiations with Russia — this is what it's all about," the adviser added, echoing an earlier statement made by Mikhail Podoliak, another senior Zelensky aide.
In late May, the US allowed Ukraine to use American-made weapons to hit targets deep inside Russia in response to Moscow's advance in Ukraine's Kharkov Region, which sought to protect civilians from Kiev's recurring artillery strikes. Media reports suggested that the range of Ukrainian strikes was limited to about 100km, meaning that some high-priority targets such as airfields remained beyond Kiev's reach. Ukraine has repeatedly asked the US to lift those restrictions.
Meanwhile, the Post noted that the Kursk incursion comes as Ukrainian officials "have expressed some sense of urgency" to improve their military position before the November presidential elections in the US, amid concerns that Republican candidate Donald Trump could win the vote. The latter has repeatedly vowed to end the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours if elected, while criticizing military aid to Kiev.
3) Is someone in Ukraine genuinely worried about the spectre of a Trump presidency, or is it rather that someone in the US told someone in Ukraine to mention Trump when asking for weapons because "concern" may help grease the squeaky wheels of the Democratic election machine and facilitate the request for military assistance in the right places? Whatever the situation might be, we now read: 15 Aug, 2024 20:10
Biden 'open' to supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles - Politico
The Pentagon is reportedly already working through the details of a potential transfer of JASSM missiles
4) Here are a few articles on SOTT that may related to the discussion of what a Trump presidency might mean for Europe including Russian and Ukraine:
5) People in many other countries, including Russia and the author of the article, are well aware that they deal with an establishment in the US that is more entrenched than a change of face every few years. If Trump becomes president, can he prove them wrong?
6) There is also Israel and its influence over the US. From an Israeli perspective, it would not be in its interest to have a lot of nations in Europe who oppose what Israel does in Gaza. A few nations have given recognition of Palestine to exist, but they have not gone too far with action. US influence in Europe helps to prevent that from happening. Do some countries recognize where part of European instability is buried?
How a BRICS trio is staring down Israel
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