© SDF
Back in August, Turkey's invasion of northern Syria focused a lot on seizing ISIS territory along the border. At this point, all the easily claimable ISIS cities are gone, and
Turkey's forces are increasingly bumping up against the forces of the Syrian government.In al-Bab, Turkish forces took the city, but Syrian troops took the immediate south,
effectively cutting off any deeper Turkish advances. Clashes between Turkey-backed rebels erupted, but eventually both started moving eastward, toward the important, Kurdish-held city of Manbij.
Today, Syria appears to have cut a deal with the Kurdish YPG and the Manbij Military Council to cut Turkey off at the pass, with Russia brokering an agreement in which some of the villages ringing Manbij will be handed over to the Syrian government's control.The deal aims to allow the Syrian military to ring the Kurdish-held city, which would
prevent Turkey from directly invading Manbij, something they've long threatened to do. It remains to be seen how Turkey will respond to this deal, as they are party to a ceasefire with the Syrian government and other factions, but would have a much longer trek to find new Kurdish or ISIS targets to attack.
Comment: With ISIS evacuating this area, what will Erdogan's excuse be to remain in Syria? Will he risk attacking the US-backed YPG?
Assad's army seized nearly two dozen villages, including Taduf south of Al-Bab, gaining approximately 600 square kilometres (230 square miles) of territory in Aleppo province. The advance brought Syrian troops to territory just southwest of Manbij and adjacent to SDF forces there. By sealing off that territory, the regime has stemmed Turkish ambitions of heading further east. The road to Raqa via Al-Bab is now cut for the Turks. They also can't attack Manbij from the south. The regime's recent advance has boxed Turkey in. They're surrounded on all sides. The Kurds are to the east, southeast, and west. The regime is south.
It is most likely the SDF/YPG, Russia and the Syrian Army will cooperate. Erdogan's options: fight, deal or go home.
After rumors of this deal, the Russian Reconciliation Center sent a
first convoy of food, meds, and necessities to Manbij. Russia also
informed the U.S. of the convoys. However, fighting between the SDF and the Turkey-backed FSA continue in the area. Civilians are fleeing, and U.S. armored vehicles are being
deployed north and west of Manbij.
Comment: With ISIS evacuating this area, what will Erdogan's excuse be to remain in Syria? Will he risk attacking the US-backed YPG? It is most likely the SDF/YPG, Russia and the Syrian Army will cooperate. Erdogan's options: fight, deal or go home.
After rumors of this deal, the Russian Reconciliation Center sent a first convoy of food, meds, and necessities to Manbij. Russia also informed the U.S. of the convoys. However, fighting between the SDF and the Turkey-backed FSA continue in the area. Civilians are fleeing, and U.S. armored vehicles are being deployed north and west of Manbij.