© Ariel JerozolimskiBinyamin Netanyahu
In his campaign-launching televised address, Netanyahu put "ensuring that Iran will not have a nuclear bomb" atop his agenda. He made similar declarations before the previous election, in February 2009. Keeping Iran in the headlines serves Bibi's political goals: he appears to be the only possible leader with enough experience, authority and diplomatic skill to deal with the issue. If Iran is the key problem, Netanyahu is the obvious solution.
The recent weeks' global debate about whether Israel would, or should, attack Iran's nuclear installations was a successful prelude to Netanyahu's campaign. Other politicians have little to say about Iran, or they fear to appear soft if they criticise the government's sabre-rattling. In reality, Netanyahu's Iran policy has been a failure. Even by his own account at a recent UN speech, the Iranians are ever closer to the bomb. The public doesn't care, however. There is little appetite for going to war now, or alone. According to successive polls, most Israelis would like to see America's air power, rather than Israel's, bombing Natanz.
Netanyahu praises himself for the "stability" in Israel throughout his current term. Indeed, his cabinet will have served for four years, more than any Israeli government since 1981. The economy was only mildly scratched by the global financial crisis, although it shows signs of recession. There were fewer terrorist attacks and cross-border fire exchanges than during the previous decade, thanks to Bibi's restraint.
Netanyahu has shown considerable diplomatic skill facing the Arab spring revolutions. He may have viewed the fall of Hosni Mubarak as a catastrophe, but he has been careful to avoid a public feud with Egypt's current president, Mohamed Morsi, despite their deep ideological rift, knowing that do to otherwise would endanger the peace treaty. He has stayed away from the Syrian civil war, despite the risk of spillover - directly or via Lebanon. Most importantly from his standpoint, he has leveraged the western fear of regional chaos to his political advantage, by pushing aside the Palestinian issue and American calls to halt West Bank settlements.
Netanyahu's public disagreements with Obama over the settlements and Iran, and his open preference for Mitt Romney, don't hurt him at home. Throughout his political career, Netanyahu has been at his best when standing up to the powers that be, at home or abroad. His rightwing base loves it, and the current term has been no different. Paradoxically, Obama's opposition to war against Iran helps Bibi avoid a risky military adventure, while giving him an excuse for not fulfilling his pledge to stop the Iranian bomb.
Netanyahu's adherence to the status quo prevented him from dealing with Israel's deeper problems - the prolonged occupation of the West Bank, with its moral and strategic burden, and the demographic shift in the Israeli society, which has deepened its already existing tribalism.
The Arabs and ultra-Orthodox Jews are currently exempt from military service and under-employed; to sustain economic growth and mitigate domestic rifts, Israel must integrate them into the workforce and give them opportunities. But it comes with a political price tag, since both groups reject the idea of "Jewish democratic state" as an oxymoron, and Bibi has failed to present an updated, all-encompassing national ethos. Instead, he has stuck to the old rightwing formula of bashing the Arabs and paying off the ultra-Orthodox, while alienating the shrinking secular mainstream that serves in the army and pays taxes. The draft debate ignited the chain of events leading to the early snap election, which Netanyahu hopes to win before his rivals have time to organise.
And here lies Netanyahu's ultimate failure: he offers little hope to the young, educated Israelis, beyond war with Iran, entrenchment on the borders and austerity budgets. This leads to a quiet, but dangerous, brain drain. Unfortunately for Israel, there is no credible candidate in the coming election who offers a brighter future.
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