Couched in an endorsement of the Jewish state's right to defend itself against "wanton violence" by the Palestinian militant group, Obama's warning comes amid mass civilian deaths, reported atrocities and widespread crippling of infrastructure by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in Gaza.

In an essay released on Medium on Monday, Obama backed President Joe Biden's call for the US to "support our long-time ally in going after Hamas, dismantling its military capabilities," and freeing the hostages taken in the October 7 attack.

However, Obama argued, it is important that Israel's strategy "abides by international law" and minimizes the death and suffering of civilians. Not just because it is "morally just and reflects our belief in the inherent value of every human life" but because it is "vital for building alliances and shaping international opinion — all of which are critical for Israel's long-term security."

Pointing out that thousands of Palestinians have already been killed, including children, and hundreds of thousands displaced, Obama argued that the crackdown on Gaza could "further harden Palestinian attitudes for generations, erode global support for Israel, play into the hands of Israel's enemies, and undermine long term efforts" to achieve peace.

Obama advised both the US and Israel to reach out to "those Palestinian leaders and organizations that recognize Israel's right to exist" and start "articulating a viable pathway" for Palestinian statehood, as "the best and perhaps only way to achieve the lasting peace and security most Israeli and Palestinian families yearn for."

He also urged both countries to "to do our best to put our best values, rather than our worst fears, on display," and oppose both "anti-Semitism in all its forms" and "anti-Muslim, anti-Arab or anti-Palestinian sentiment."

This means "guarding against dehumanizing language towards the people of Gaza, or downplaying Palestinian suffering — whether in Gaza or the West Bank — as irrelevant or illegitimate," concluded Obama, who was the US president from 2009 to 2017.

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Some analysis on the prospects of an Israeli ground assault and occupation of Gaza, which perhaps explains why they've been shying away from actually launching the operation. Hamas right now claims 40,000 reasonably well-armed and well-trained fighters in a city of 2 million.

First rule of thumb: all else being equal, you generally need a 3:1 numerical advantage to attack successfully. While the IDF has an extremely steep advantage in firepower, the Palestinians have had over a decade to dig in, and the Israelis would be attacking into a growing rubble pile. As anyone familiar with the Battle of Monte Cassino (or the much more recent Battle of Mosul) would tell you, rubble can be just as good to fight from as intact buildings and will interfere with the effective use of armored vehicles. Thus, the IDF will need to mass some 120,000 troops to defeat Hamas et al and occupy Gaza.

Second rule of thumb: to conduct intensive counterinsurgency operations, you need a 1:20 ratio of security personnel to local inhabitants.

There are some two million people living in Gaza, suggesting that an occupation army of 100,000 will be required into at least the medium term to pacify the city and root out insurgents - of which there will be many, because the local population hates the Israelis to an extent we have difficulty comprehending in the West. The IDF's regular strength in peacetime is 165,000 troops. So it can be readily seen that this mission would require doubling the standing strength of the IDF out of reserves and keeping it there for a period of years, likely after a grueling urban battle that could easily inflict more combat casualties on the IDF than it has suffered in every war it has been involved in since independence combined.

Or to put it another way, devoting 1.5% of the Jewish and Druze population of Israel to counterinsurgency duty in Gaza for an indefinite period. No wonder Netanyahu keeps pushing off the invasion. Even if they win the battle it's a recipe for disaster.

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The Post interviewed dozens of Ukrainian and Western officials for an article which offered fresh claims about the murder of Dugina, who was killed by a car bomb just outside Moscow in August 2022. Newly reported allegations include the use of a secret compartment in a cat cage to smuggle parts of the bomb into Russia.

Darya Dugina's father, Aleksandr Dugin, was allegedly the intended target of the Ukrainian plot. The murder was said to be on the "extreme" side of Kiev's program of targeted assassinations, in which dozens of civilians have been killed for allegedly being Russian collaborators.

Sources told the newspaper that neither the SBU nor GUR proceeds with operations unless they have received clearance - "tacit or otherwise" - from Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.

Apart from the assassination of Dugina, Ukrainian intelligence was behind the killing of Russian war blogger Maksim Fomin (best known by the pen name Vladlen Tatarsky), sources told the Post. The blogger was killed in April in an explosion at a cafe in St. Petersburg, where he was holding a meeting with his readers. More than 40 other people were injured in the blast.

Much of the report was dedicated to the CIA's investment of tens of millions of dollars in the Ukrainian special services. The US agency created an entirely new directorate in the SBU, while the GUR was reportedly rebuilt "from scratch" for American goals.

A former US intelligence official who worked in Ukraine called the military agency "our little baby," while Washington helped build a new GUR HQ and taught tradecraft to Ukrainian agents.

The CIA is legally banned from participating in political assassination operations, and according to the Post, Ukraine keeps the US in the dark about any such plans.

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