© NOAA/NASA via APHurricane Melissa 'rapidly intensifying', October 26, 2025
"The Air Force Hurricane Hunters out there were flying through the storm, along with the NOAA P-3," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. "The fact that the P-3 had such violence, turbulence, in the southwestern eye wall that they departed the storm. They usually do that just to be sure that there's nothing wrong with the aircraft."
As of the latest information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Melissa now has maximum sustained winds of 175 mph with some higher gusts, and some fluctuations in strength are likely as the storm slams Jamaica with a deadly storm surge, life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and landslides, and destructive winds.
This comes after Hurricane Melissa underwent "extreme rapid intensification" over the weekend as millions of people rushed to prepare for the destructive storm's impacts and seek shelter inside sturdy buildings as conditions began to deteriorate.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season now stands as the season with the second-most Category 5 hurricanes to form, with three. This season sits behind the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, which had four.
"(Hurricane Melissa is) the third Category 5 storm of this season," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. "The second time in the record book that we've had three Category 5 storms in one season. And the last time was 2005. And remember how many storms. We set a record in 2005 with 28 named storms. Three of them ended up Category 5."
Melissa claimed at least three lives in the Dominican Republic last week as the storm stalled in the Caribbean, lashing Hispaniola with several inches of rain.
Haiti's Civil Protection Agency confirmed a landslide in Fontamara, a commune of Port-au-Prince, left two people dead on Thursday, and a falling tree killed a man in his 70s in Marigot during flooding on Wednesday.
Now with Hurricane Melissa setting its sights on Jamaica, forecasters are presenting a potentially worst-case scenario of the storm as it slowly creeps toward the southern coast of the island at a near-snail's pace, and the warnings have become more dire.
"Do not venture out of your safe shelter," the NHC pleaded in its latest forecast advisory. "Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely (Monday) through Tuesday."
But it's not only the flooding rain that is concerning to forecasters.
"Destructive winds, especially in the mountains, will begin by (Monday) evening, leading to extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and communication outages, and isolated communities."
A life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are also expected at beaches along the southern coast through Tuesday.
"The only little bit of good news that we're getting out of this thing is that Jamaica's capital, Kingston, looks like it will not get the worst," Norcross said. "It's still going to have a significant effect, and we still have all the rain and everything, but probably not the worst."
© Fox lWeatherThis graphic shows the forecast wind radii and storm surge from Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica, October 27, 2025
After tearing across Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa is then expected to make a second landfall in southeastern Cuba. Forecasters are also warning of flash flooding and landslides, as well as a life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds.
The Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands are also being warned to brace for impact after Melissa emerges back over the Atlantic after ripping across Cuba.
Alerts in the Caribbean have also expanded with the latest advisory from the NHC. While the entire island of Jamaica remains under a Hurricane Warning, those alerts expanded to the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanmo and Holguin.
A Hurricane Watch has now also been issued for the southeastern and central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti and the Cuban province of Las Tunas.
Evacuations ordered for parts of Jamaica as millions brace for impact
The Jamaican government activated the nation's emergency operations center at the end of last week and prepositioned generators, medical supplies and fuel ahead of the storm to be prepared to respond once conditions improve.
In addition, Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness announced Sunday that he had issued mandatory evacuation orders for vulnerable areas of Kingston and surrounding areas.
That move comes after the Disaster Risk Management Order that was made on Oct. 24, which declared the entire island a "threatened area."
Those evacuation orders, which include areas like Port Royal in Kingston, will remain in effect as long as the Declaration of Threatened Area Order is in place.
Airports in Jamaica, including Sangster International Airport and Norman Manley International Airport, have been ordered closed until Hurricane Melissa passes, and the Port Authority of Jamaica said all seaports have also been shut down.
Kingston Harbor opens to the south, and the airport is on a peninsula in the harbor.
"The bigger threat than the airport might be the ports, because if you're really going to bring in a lot of material, you eventually need your ports to work," Norcross said. "And, you know, the ports are obviously vulnerable to there in these harbors and bays."
Jamaica's Minister of Labor and Social Security Pearnel Charles Jr. said the country is making every effort to "save lives" ahead of Hurricane Melissa's worst impacts.
"We've asked persons to not wait until it gets difficult to evacuate or to save you," Charles said. "If there is ever a time to listen and to take action, this is now."
Charles said they were already seeing storm surge in the Rocky Point area as of Sunday morning. Rocky Point is also among communities that are under the mandatory evacuation order.
"In the Rocky Point area, which is one of the areas along the southern coast, we were already seeing storm surges," he continued. "We were already hearing the roar and the wrath of the seas."
The last landfalling hurricane Jamaica experienced was in 2012 with Category 1 Hurricane Sandy, which caused major infrastructure damage. Melissa is forecast to make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane.
"We are looking at significant damage if this continues on this current trajectory," Charles said.
What are the expected impacts from Hurricane Melissa?
Forecasts are warning of catastrophic flooding as the storm batters Jamaica with heavy rain for days. The NHC predicts widespread rainfall totals of 15-30 inches across portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8-16 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm totals of up to 40 inches possible.
And of course, there's the potential for destructive winds.
The NHC said tropical storm conditions are now occurring in Jamaica, and destructive hurricane conditions are expected to begin Monday night or early Tuesday.
"Wind speeds atop and on the windward side of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater," the NHC warned.
This graphic shows the forecast wind radii and storm surge from Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica.
(FOX Weather)
Eastern Cuba may see 15-20 inches of rain between Monday and Wednesday.
In addition, Melissa's massive wind field and slow crawl toward Jamaica will trigger a powerful storm surge along the southern coast of Jamaica from late Monday through Tuesday morning, with peak storm surge heights reaching 9-13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Hurricane Melissa makes landfall.
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