Jerome Hudson
BreitbartFri, 09 Sep 2022 00:00 UTC
© BartekSzewczyk/iStock/Getty ImagesSmall business owner
The Job Creators Network Foundation (JCNF) has released its August Small Business IQ
Poll, which found a majority, 57 percent, of small business owners now believe the U.S. economy has entered a recession.
Surveying
500 small business owners, and using "The Small Business Intelligence Quotient (SBIQ), an index tracking overall small business sentiment about the economy," the pro-small business organization said in press release:
"Only 30 percent of respondents rate the condition of the U.S. economy as good or excellent. Meanwhile, a vast majority of small business owners are opposed to a major component of the recently passed 'Inflation Reduction Act'. Seventy percent of respondents oppose doubling the size of the IRS, which will trigger more audits of Mainstreet."
The JCNF highlights other key takeaways from its latest
poll:
- Small business owners are concerned about profitability. Last month, 71 percent predicted they would be profitable over the next year. That number dropped to 64 percent in August. It's the lowest number year-to-date.
- In August there was a 10-point jump (36 percent to 46 percent) in the number of small businesses who say gas prices have affected their profitability.
- A majority of small businesses are concerned about crime (65 percent). That jumps to 85 percent for minority-owned businesses.
Elaine Parker, President of the Job Creators Network Foundation, said in a statement:
"The U.S. economy is on shaky ground as Mainstreet continues to face rising prices, labor shortages, government red tape, and big tax burdens. The latest blow comes in the form of the misnamed Inflation Reductions Act โ legislation that will raise taxes on job creators, pick winners and losers with 'green' subsidies, fuel even higher inflation, and sick the IRS on small businesses. Despite efforts by the White House to spin the bill as a 'win,' small business owners understand it's a raw deal for America."
About the Author:
Jerome Hudson is Breitbart News Entertainment Editor and author of the book 50 Things They Don't Want You to Know About Trump. Order your copy today. Follow Jerome Hudson on Twitter, instagram, and Parlor @jeromeehudson
Comment: Bank of America giving signals it expects a downturn next year:
Bank of America economists are no longer forecasting mild recession this year in the US, saying household spending and the labor market have both held up better than expected as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.
"Our previous expectation for the US economy included a mild recession that began later this year. We based that view, in part, on incoming data which suggested household spending was weakening in the face of an inflation-induced shock to real income. Since that time, incoming data has suggested US households and labor markets have retained more momentum than we expected."
The bank now expects the economy will expand one percent in the third quarter, up from the previous estimate of a 0.5 contraction, and grow 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter. It previously had forecast a two percent contraction in the fourth quarter.
The prolonged economic momentum is a "double-edged sword," the bank said. The risk of recession is reduced but it brings more Fed tightening.
The analysts are still forecasting three quarters of contraction but they now see the negative growth starting in the first quarter of next year. GDP is expected to fall 0.5 percent first three months of the year and then by one percent in each of the two quarters that follow. The previous estimate was for a 0.5 percent contraction in the first quarter followed by growth of one percent in the second and 1.5 percent in the third. For the full year, the bank expects the economy will grow 1.6 percent, up from 1.2 percent in the previous estimate. Next year, the economy is now expected to shrink by 0.2 percent, matching the previous estimate. The estimate for growth in 2024 was dropped to 1.2 from 1.9 percent.
Following Powell's speech at Jackson Hole and his comments this week, Bank of America now projects a 75 basis point hike in September. The bank still expects the Fed will begin cutting rates by the end of 2023, an idea several Fed speakers have strenuously said was unlikely.
The bank now forecasts the unemployment rate to rise to five percent by the end of 2023. In the nearer term, however, it expects the rate of unemployment to fall back down to 3.6 percent by the end of this year.
"Recent employment reports do not suggest labor demand and employment growth have slowed much in response to the tightening in financial conditions that began earlier this year. With the Fed gradually pushing its policy rate higher into restrictive territory, we do look for demand for labor to moderate, but only slowly."
The bank notes that deteriorating global economic conditions could benefit the U.S. economy by lowering energy demand.
"When concerns about downside risks to global growth rise, they often lead to falling energy prices that are then transmitted into US gasoline prices fairly quickly. The intensification of downside risks to growth in China, Europe, and the UK led to an earlier decline in headline price pressures than we anticipated, opening the door to a healthier backdrop for US consumers."
Comment: Bank of America giving signals it expects a downturn next year: