© Kremlin / Alexei Druzhinin
Over the years, Russians have come to know Putin as a leader who has observed the constitutional limitations that are currently in place, When asked, he has consistently said he would not run for president when his current term is up in 2024. But on Tuesday, he announced the suggestion to 'reset' his presidency allowing him to run again in four years would be acceptable — though only if approved by the Constitutional Court and supported by citizens in an April 22 vote across the country.
The current constitutional restriction of two consecutive terms in office forced Putin to leave the presidency in 2008, when Dmitry Medvedev took up the role. Putin ran again in 2012 and has been in power since, winning reelection in 2018 after the presidential term was extended to six years.
In one of his annual Q&A sessions he even chuckled at the idea of staying in power beyond 2024, pointing out he would be over 70 by then. So why has he changed his mind now - in a move that risks damaging a political image built on consistency?
While a majority of ordinary voters might not care too much about Putin's change of tune, for the Russian opposition he "only confirmed their view" that he is a strongman who will never leave power, senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center Alexander Baunov told RT. Even Putin loyalists in government may be "puzzled" at having been kept in the dark about his plans.
"They can't understand why they were tricked and not told directly that Putin wants to be reelected. They would have willingly supported him," Baunov said.
Yet, if Putin simply wanted to stay in power, he had "thousands" of simpler ways to do it, says president of the Center for Strategic Communications Dmitry Abzalov. The real motivation is to keep his options open and avoid becoming seen as a lame duck, he believes.
Russians, added Abzalov, are tired of the "inefficiency" of officials on economic and social issues and most are focused on how a boost can be delivered to the GDP and improve ordinary people's lives - by whatever means. Putin's government reshuffle and announcement of new social programs in January was part of that, but Abzalov believes more can be done, including overhauling the functioning of the Russian parliament itself.
With the significant change of government in January, the announcement of a slate of new reforms and the resignation of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, it already "looked as if a kind of a renewal of the system" had begun - but with his latest move, it seems that Putin is delaying change again, Baunov said.
For Aleksey Mukhin, head of the Center for Political Information, Putin's change of heart looks like a "very delicate trolling" of Russia's Western partners. Mukhin believes Putin does not have any real intention of remaining in power for another term, but the thought of it will keep the West "on its toes."
"It's a very slick move, which will cause a strong negative reaction [in the West] that will, however, be absolutely in vain," he said.
Russians will likely have to wait until 2024 for a final decision from Putin on whether he intends to run again, but whatever happens, it will likely depend on the situation, both domestic and international.
For her part, Valentina Tereshkova, who proposed the 're-set' of presidential term limits in Russia's lower house of parliament (the State Duma) on Tuesday says she was motivated by public demand.
"Ordinary people simply asked for it. They asked," said Tereshkova, better known internationally for having been the first woman in space. She also expressed confidence that the Constitutional Court will approve her amendment. Putin said this bodies' acquiescence is a pre-requisite for his agreement. As well as the support of citizens in the national vote on constitutional changes, slated for April 22.
Nobody seriously believes the court will put a spoke in the wheels, and polls show the public is prepared to back the proposals.
The changes to Russia's principal law, among other things, also include redistributing some powers away from the president to the parliament, banning state officials from having foreign citizenship and setting the minimum wage above the basic cost of living.
The reaction to Tuesday's developments has been diverse, to say the least.
"Watching Vladimir Putin for more than 20 years, I have noticed: at all times and in all circumstances, Mr. Putin seeks to secure maximum freedom of political maneuver and maximum power in his own hands," columnist Mikhail Rostovsky wrote in Russia's best-selling newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets.
"It is not understood yet how exactly he will use this freedom. But it's known that Mr. Putin will be guided to a very large extent when making his fateful decision (or fateful decisions) by the position of the voters," Rostovsky elaborated, pointing out that the electorate has the chance to reject the constitutional changes if it so desires, and will also be able to choose the next president.
"Neither God, nor the king, nor a hero will help us," he concluded. "Only 'His Majesty the Voter,' filled with the realization that the fate of the country is truly in his hands."
'It was obvious Putin would never leave power'
Meanwhile, business daily Vedomosti was far less optimistic about weight of public opinion. "To the many options for maintaining power after 2024, Vladimir Putin added the simplest: remaining president until old age," it warned in an editorial.
"[If he stays until 2036], Putin may become the longest-serving leader in the duration of his rule in Russia over the past three centuries," it continued.
Opposition minded newspaper Novaya Gazeta was even stronger in its denunciation. "It was obvious to any person with a functioning brain that Putin would never leave power," wrote Yulia Latynina. "This was the reason for the amendments to the Constitution: it wasn't for the sake of the amendments themselves, which they drafted just to create discussion, but for the sake of the possibility of canceling the presidential term [limits]."
"Putin announces that he is ready to stay forever for the sake of stability, and the ruble collapses, all in one day," she added. "Really guys? Is that what you call stability?"
Latynina was referring to the sharp fall in Russia's currency, against the Dollar and the Euro, when Moscow markets opened on Tuesday morning, before Putin's speech. It followed the long weekend holiday for 'International Woman's Day' and was primarily driven by the dramatic drop in oil prices.
However, her viewpoint isn't shared by Tina Kandelaki, a well-known journalist and TV personality. "Today, Vladimir Putin is the president of Russia with a rating and legitimacy that allows him to pursue an independent foreign and domestic policy," she ventured on RT's Russian service. "There are still four years left on his [current] term, after which we will all decide who will be our president for the next 6 years."
"I would like to repeat that the question of who will lead our country depends entirely on us," she continued. "Each time at the polling station, we have a chance to determine the vector of development of the country and who will be the people who will lead the country at different levels."
Alexander Baunov, of Carnegie Moscow believes it was a well-rehearsed move, with it no accident that Tereshkova made the first move, given her fame and status. "What is happening now is unprecedented in Russian history," he tweeted. "The head of state is openly announcing that he is prepared to find a way of staying in the presidential post even after the timeframe set by the law has expired — and that he plans to stay for a long time."
Yet Putin is a master of keeping his options open. The Tereshkova amendment will allow Putin to seek a 5th term, but doesn't oblige him to," he added. "By refusing to fully commit himself, he avoids becoming a lame duck & keeps speculation about a potential successor to a minimum."
'It doesn't mean he'll actually run'
The head of the Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies, which is also based in the Russian capital, clarified that the vote on April 22 wasn't actually about prolonging Putin's presidential term, but only about amending the constitution.
Putin running for office again is only a distant prospect, Dmitry Badovsky reckons. "Him realizing the opportunity of being elected again depends on many things, including the situation within the country, developments in the international arena and his personal aspirations."
But Badovsky warned Putin's critics in West that they themselves may unwittingly force him into putting himself forward for a fifth term through what he views as their aggressive policies towards Russia. Badovsky explains this sort of confrontation will only increase Russian voters' demand for a strong leader.
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