CSIS director Michel Coulombe waits to appear at the Senate national security committee meeting to discuss Bill C-51, the anti-terrorism Act, in Ottawa on April 20, 2015.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shows little concern over the threat posed by battle-hardened jihadists returning to Canada. He even argues they can be rehabilitated. But documents unearthed from CSIS - some of them marked "top secret" - reveal alarming information about how Canada's spy agency views the jihadist threat, what they're doing to track it and their concerns about future attacks on home soil. Anthony Furey reports in this three-part series.
The terrorism threat in Canada posed by jihadists is ever-changing, hard to pin down and requires continual monitoring, according to the upper brass at the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.
"The Service has never before faced a terrorist threat of the scope, scale and complexity of Sunni Islamist-inspired terrorism," reads an unclassified committee briefing note prepared for an unidentified individual in October 2016.
The document not only reveals troubling news about the severity of the threat in Canada, but appears to conflict with the tone of public statements previously made by both Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale.
During a 2017 year-end interview with CTV, Trudeau said remorseful returning fighters "can be an extraordinarily powerful voice for preventing radicalization in future generations."
If CSIS agrees with this assessment, there is no such indication of it in the documents received by the Toronto Sun, which were obtained under access to information laws. "CSIS is seized with this issue," the note states, "as extremists returning to Canada have the potential to pose a significant threat to our national security."
Canada's spies also worry that the problem is larger than their official statistics indicate. "I should point out that we remain concerned about the number of individuals that we are not aware of, or about whom we have incomplete information, due to the significant operational challenges associated with such investigations," the document reads.
Contrary to Trudeau's remarks, Goodale has previously acknowledged the prospects of rehabilitating fighters are "pretty remote." And according to the CSIS document, it's hard to say how a returnee will behave: "Returnees may respond in a number of different ways - from returning to regular life, radicalizing others, or financing and facilitating the travel of others, to attack planning."
At no point in the document - or any of the other related CSIS material the Sun received - is there talk of deradicalization. "The number of Canadians abroad for terrorism-related purposes has, after a surge, leveled off. But the terrorist threat at home has not diminished. Indeed, preventing individuals from travelling abroad for extremist purposes may in fact increase the threat at home." They write that this "requires ongoing investigation."
The spies' rhetoric surrounding the number of fighters is also something of a departure from that used by politicians. Goodale has stressed that the number of returning fighters has remained constant at 60 for the past two years. While the CSIS report doesn't directly discuss the number of returnees, they do say "there is not a lot to be gained by reporting frequently on incremental changes in these numbers, which fluctuate constantly."
The document also points out that these counts leave out radicals in our midst who've never left. "Nor do numbers of 'travelers' or 'returnees' adequately capture the scale of this threat: Individuals who have never travelled - whether they aspire to, have been prevented from travelling or, for a variety of reasons, choose to remain in Canada - and are engaged in threat-related activities at home are not included."
One top security expert isn't surprised to learn any of this. "It's very difficult to track people going overseas if you don't know beforehand who they are and where they're going," says Tom Quiggin, a former military intelligence officer, RCMP contractor and author of the new book Submission: The Danger of Political Islam to Canada. "Actually tracking this is an incredibly difficult problem, both coming and going."
Some of the sections in the note are similar to remarks previously made by senior CSIS officials in public testimonies but others appear to be fresh revelations. The top level note also shows that the words used by CSIS in documents can differ from the language employed in public statements.
It's unknown who the note was made for, although it was prepared around the time of then CSIS director Michel Coulombe's appearance before a House of Commons committee. However the director did not discuss the issue of returning foreign fighters during that appearance. Instead, the note appears to guide remarks given by Brian Rumig, assistant director of operations, at a Senate committee appearance he made that November.
While Rumig speaks about "the scope, scale and complexity" of terrorism in his Nov. 28 testimony exactly as the memo writes it, he removes reference to Sunni Islamism. Rumig doesn't reference Islam at all during his remarks, aside from one mention of the Islamic State.
Part 2
The issue of homegrown jihadists abroad is such a concern for Canada's top spy agency that they've been running internal reports on the extremists' whereabouts on as much as a weekly basis.
Documents marked "top secret" and "secret" obtained via access to information and made available to the Sun reveal the frequency with which CSIS was updating its tally of foreign fighters.
The weekly reports, which span most of 2016 and early 2017, track those "currently in Turkey/Syria/Iraq" and those "returned to Canada from Turkey/Syria/Iraq".
While all the actual figures are redacted from the more than 300 pages obtained by the Sun, the classifications that they fall under are not. Those are listed as "last week" and "this week", suggesting that during this time frame the numbers may have been changing on a weekly basis.
It's difficult to reconcile this information with statements from both the Liberal government and law enforcement that the number of returnees has held at 60 for over two years. This figure appears in a December 2015 report but has been reaffirmed by Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale and others as the up-to-date number as recently as late 2017.
Former CSIS director Michel Coulombe testified before the standing Senate committee on national security and defence in March 2016 to offer the 60 count. Yet weekly summary reports that imply numbers may be shifting week-by-week were compiled both before and after Coulombe's testimony.
"This would seem to imply that the threat picture is so insistent and compelling as to require almost real time reporting and analysis, especially taking into account the limited resources that Canadian intelligence has and the considerable costs that this kind of joint intelligence endeavour requires," says David Harris, a Canadian intelligence expert with over 30 years experience.
A seemingly different but similar set of documents produced on a weekly basis are marked "Travellers in Syria / Turkey / Iraq" and run four pages. There are four columns of information the pages compile: name, date of birth, Canadian status and last reported location.
It's unknown how many names are tracked on these four pages, as all of the other content is redacted. The documents are labelled as CSIS Travel Study, produced by the Intelligence Assessments Branch.
"The mere fact of their weekly frequency is the clearest evidence of the urgency of the situation as understood by our intelligence community," notes Harris.
Another set of documents also reveals the way extremists are monitored and classified. "Canadian Foreign Fighting: Brief Situational Report" appears to be a prepared slideshow or power point presentation.
The report offers a count of how many Canadian foreign fighters are "returned" versus how many are "abroad". The numbers are blanked out. It lists there are "many destinations" they go to, with Turkey-Syria-Iraq as the only set of locations not redacted. The redacted spaces suggest there are three other locations or cluster of locations that serve as a destination for Canadian extremists.
The reports offer several categories for how fighters returned to Canada are classified: return to "normal life" (their quotations), fundraising activities, radicalization and facilitation. However, there is another unknown category that is blanked out. It's unclear if these are hypothetical classifications or if fighters who have returned home have already been assigned these statuses.
The slideshow also tallies "departures to Turkey - Syria - Iraq per yearly quarter". These slideshows have dates ranging from March 1, 2016 to July 21, 2016 but it's unknown which yearly quarters they track.
"The fact that they're reporting it on a weekly basis suggests to me that the numbers which they say are fluctuating are doing so on a very regular turnover," notes Tom Quiggin, a former military intelligence officer, RCMP contractor and author of the new book Submission: The Danger of Political Islam to Canada. "In other words, it's worth reporting on this every week because the numbers changed every week."
An internal CSIS memo reported on in part one of this series claimed that foreign fighter numbers "fluctuate constantly". It's unknown when these weekly reports began, when they ended and if they remain ongoing.
Part 3
Canada's top spies believe terrorism will continue in Canada, according to a threat assessment report from CSIS.
It notes that "domestic extremists are likely to continue to target Canadian uniformed personnel and related installations in neighbourhoods that are familiar to them (such as police stations and military recruitment centres)." Earlier words in the sentence that may offer further context have been redacted.
The report was compiled by the Integrated Terrorism Assessment Centre (ITAC), which operates from within CSIS headquarters, in January 2017. It was obtained via access to information and provided to the Sun. The document looks at the ways terrorists, particularly homegrown ones, may attack Canada in the future.
The two terror attacks in October, 2014 - one in Quebec and one on the Ottawa Parliament buildings - resulted in the deaths of two Canadian Forces members. The Edmonton vehicular ramming and stabbing attack that occurred last September was against a police constable.
But according to ITAC, these attempts may not be behind us. The document marked 'secret' notes that groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda "continue to pose a persistent threat to Canada and Canadian interests globally" and adds that "of further concern is the ongoing threat from extremists in Canada who continue to aspire or plot violent acts of terror."
It's unclear if ITAC is referring to known specific extremists or if they are speaking hypothetically. CSIS and the Canadian government officially state that there are around 60 terrorists who have returned to Canada from fighting abroad.
However part one of this feature reported on an internal CSIS document that stated those numbers "fluctuate constantly". And part two of this feature disclosed how the CSIS assessments branch was at one point producing weekly reports on the numbers of terrorists who are still abroad and the number who have returned to Canada. While the actual numbers were redacted, security experts told the Sun this suggests there are changes occurring frequently enough to warrant writing weekly reports.
The game is also changing, making matters more complex. According to the report, "ITAC notes an ongoing shift in DAESH (an alternate acronym for ISIS) rhetoric since the last iteration of the (National Terrorism Threat Levels), which has intensified the call in supporters and followers to instead join the 'virtual caliphate' by remaining in the West and carrying out domestic attacks on behalf of DAESH.
"Guidance on plotting and conducting a lone-actor attack goes as far as to provide systematic steps to reduce the chances of detection by security agencies such as employing ComSec [communications security] measures and dressing in the style of a Westerner)."
The report reveals Canada's spies were also nervous about Canada 150 celebrations. Writing in advance of the sesquicentennial celebrations, they note that such events "remain attractive targets for groups to amass large casualties in a very short period of time, and with relative ease."
One specific potential attack they warn about that would involve Canadians isn't actually on Canadian soil. Citing an October 2016 pro-jihad book, they state it "recommends an explosive laden-sea vessel, driven by suicide bombers, against targets including the Suez canal where Canadian flagged vessels are likely to port." Over the past several years, ISIS leaders have repeatedly named Canada in their roll call of countries to attack.
The silver-lining is that ITAC does not predict large scale and complex attacks in Canada. They note that "while domestic extremists may seek to conduct a copycat attack such as [Aaron] Driver's suicide-IED attempt, the primary terror-related threat to Canada is single firearm, or a vehicle."
The language in this report - which is not publicly posted on the ITAC website - contrasts with the more sanitized language used in the Public Report on the Terrorist Threat to Canada. The latter is something of a public version of the ITAC document, released annually by the Minister for Public Safety.
While Minister Ralph Goodale, in the foreword, notes that the report "takes a clear-eyed view of the dangers to Canada posed by terrorism" none of the blunt observations in the ITAC report make their way into the public one.
For the most part, the public text - which was released just before Christmas last year - looks back on Canada's past challenges instead of discussing the likelihood of future threats.
"As the threat from terrorism continues to evolve, Canada's response must continually adapt and change to keep Canadians safe," notes the executive summary. "The Government's role is to respond to a terrorist threat or incident through a coordinated effort by multiple federal departments and agencies, and all levels of government."
The public version also echoes the approaches to deradicalization and rehabilitation favoured by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. "A key approach to countering radicalization to violence in Canada is establishing programming within communities," the report notes, going on to detail various counter-radicalization endeavours.
There is no mention of any such programs in the ITAC report.
Comment: Just another example of the schizophrenic response to radical Islamism (which would never have existed to the degree it does now without support from Western intelligence agencies). See, for example: