© Andrew Gombert/EPA
President Andrzej Duda addressed the nation on Wednesday evening, and announced he would sign two controversial laws that critics say tighten political control over the country's judicial system, and which the Commission has referred to the European Court of Justice.
What was striking about Duda's speech was the tone.
Unlike previous fiery responses from Warsaw during the two-year confrontation with Brussels over changes made by the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, the president was remarkably non-confrontational.
"We're bringing in very good solutions in Poland that will serve to improve the justice system," Duda said, decrying criticism of the measures but not directly mentioning the Commission's actions from earlier in the day.
It's an approach that was replicated across the Polish capital on Wednesday, as Warsaw digested the blow from Brussels, which launched its Article 7 procedure and put Poland on a path that could ultimately lead to the suspension of its EU voting rights over concerns about the rule of law.
The more careful tone is a reflection of just how exposed Warsaw is in its ongoing confrontation with the EU - a path that has led the country from being one of the bloc's heavy hitters two years ago, to an increasingly marginalized member.
Zbigniew Ziobro, the justice minister, stressed Wednesday that Poland "will be a significant country if it has well-functioning courts. We have to continue with the reforms of the justice system."
To underline that point, on Wednesday he continued his purge of senior judges, dismissing several with faxes sent from his ministry.
But his language was colorless compared to previous confrontations with Brussels and West European countries. During a spat with Paris, a deputy defense minister pointed out to the French that they learned to eat with forks thanks to Poles; last year, Ziobro lambasted Commission First Vice President Frans Timmermans for being of a "left-wing persuasion."
Mateusz Morawiecki, the newly installed prime minister, was also circumspect, saying, "Poland is tied to the principles of the rule of law like the rest of the EU."
Gains from confrontation
The problem for the government is that it has gained just about all there is to gain politically from its fight with Brussels. PiS is more popular than ever - one recent opinion poll found it had the support of half of voters - while the opposition parties are in disarray.
PiS has used the tussle with the Commission to strengthen its hold on power, portraying Poland as standing up against a cosmopolitan elite in Brussels that wants to foist Muslim migrants on the country and undermine its patriotic values. But the risks of that fight are now starting to outweigh the rewards.
Poland is the largest overall beneficiary of EU cash - set to receive about €100 billion in structural, agricultural and other funds during the current seven-year budget ending in 2020. But there is increasing disquiet in parts of Western Europe about sending so much money to a country that violates the EU's norms.
Talks on the post-2020 budget were going to be difficult anyway because of Brexit. But they will be even more fraught for Warsaw if other countries try to shift money to areas like higher education or research and development, which will net Poland much less.
Worries over the court system and being tarred as a country violating the EU's legal standards won't be much comfort to investors either. Although Poland is experiencing strong economic growth - GDP is expected to expand by 4.2 percent this year and 3.8 percent in 2018 - investment is lagging. Investment growth is only 3.3 percent this year - significantly worse than the 5 percent expected by many economists.
"Some of the most frequent questions I get are from investors worried about the judicial system," said a senior executive at a Warsaw-based private equity fund.
There are also big political dangers in being seen as the EU's black sheep. Although Poles aren't keen on taking in migrants, and are tied to their national values, they are also enthusiastic members of the EU. One national survey found that 88 percent support Poland being in the bloc.
The only time PiS saw a serious deterioration in its poll ratings in the last two years was in March after Warsaw's failed attempt to deny Donald Tusk a second term as president of the European Council. That effort was defeated 27-1 by other member countries, underlining Poland's lack of EU allies and humiliating the government.
Despite the more careful tone coming out of Warsaw, there is no indication that the government and its supporters intend to backtrack on the controversial reforms to the judicial system that led to Wednesday's decision by the Commission.
"I've taken a decision. The voices of criticism I'm hearing around me are deeply surprising," Duda said in his speech.
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