© National Academy of SciencesWhat if the May 1921 superstorm occurred today? A US map of vulnerable transformers with areas of probable system collapse encircled.
Did you know a solar flare can make your toilet stop working?That's the surprising conclusion of a NASA-funded study by the National Academy of Sciences entitled
Severe Space Weather Events - Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts. In the 132-page report, experts detailed what might happen to our modern, high-tech society in the event of a "super solar flare" followed by an extreme geomagnetic storm. They found that almost nothing is immune from space weather - not even the water in your bathroom.
The problem begins with the electric power grid. "Electric power is modern society's cornerstone technology on which virtually all other infrastructures and services depend," the report notes. Yet it is particularly vulnerable to bad space weather. Ground currents induced during geomagnetic storms can actually melt the copper windings of transformers at the heart of many power distribution systems. Sprawling power lines act like antennas, picking up the currents and spreading the problem over a wide area. The most famous geomagnetic power outage happened during a space storm in March 1989 when six million people in Quebec lost power for 9 hours (see image below).
© National Academy of Sciences
According to the report, power grids may be more vulnerable than ever. The problem is interconnectedness. In recent years, utilities have joined grids together to allow long-distance transmission of low-cost power to areas of sudden demand. On a hot summer day in California, for instance, people in Los Angeles might be running their air conditioners on power routed from Oregon. It makes economic sense - but not necessarily geomagnetic sense.
Interconnectedness makes the system susceptible to wide-ranging "cascade failures."To estimate the scale of such a failure, report co-author John Kappenmann of the Metatech Corporation looked at the great geomagnetic storm of May 1921, which produced ground currents as much as ten times stronger than the 1989 Quebec storm, and modeled its effect on the modern power grid. He found more than 350 transformers at risk of permanent damage and 130 million people without power. The loss of electricity would ripple across the social infrastructure with "water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, fuel re-supply and so on."
"The concept of interdependency," the report notes, "is evident in the unavailability of water due to long-term outage of electric power--and the inability to restart an electric generator without water on site."
The strongest geomagnetic storm on record is the Carrington Event of August-September 1859, named after British astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare with his unaided eye while he was projecting an image of the sun on a white screen. Geomagnetic activity triggered by the explosion electrified telegraph lines, shocking technicians and setting their telegraph papers on fire; Northern Lights spread as far south as Cuba and Hawaii; auroras over the Rocky Mountains were so bright, the glow woke campers who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning. Best estimates rank the Carrington Event as 50% or more stronger than the superstorm of May 1921.
© Dept. of Homeland SecurityA web of interdependencies makes the modern economy especially sensitive to solar storms.
"A contemporary repetition of the Carrington Event would cause ... extensive social and economic disruptions," the report warns. Power outages would be accompanied by radio blackouts and satellite malfunctions; telecommunications, GPS navigation, banking and finance, and transportation would all be affected. Some problems would correct themselves with the fading of the storm: radio and GPS transmissions could come back online fairly quickly. Other problems would be lasting: a burnt-out multi-ton transformer, for instance, can take weeks or months to repair. The total economic impact in the first year alone could reach $2 trillion, some 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina or, to use a timelier example, a few TARPs.
What's the solution? The report ends with a call for infrastructure designed to better withstand geomagnetic disturbances, improved GPS codes and frequencies, and improvements in space weather forecasting. Reliable forecasting is key. If utility and satellite operators know a storm is coming, they can take measures to reduce damage - e.g., disconnecting wires, shielding vulnerable electronics, powering down critical hardware. A few hours without power is better than a few weeks.
NASA has deployed a fleet of spacecraft to study the sun and its eruptions. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), the twin STEREO probes, ACE, Wind and others are on duty 24/7. NASA physicists use data from these missions to understand the underlying physics of flares and geomagnetic storms; personnel at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center use the findings, in turn, to hone their forecasts.
At the moment, no one knows when the next super solar storm will erupt. It could be 100 years away or just 100 days. It's something to think about the next time you flush.
Dr. Tony Phillips, Science@NASA
Comment: The concept of interdependency goes way beyond how long power is down in Canada because the sun sneezed the day before. While it's encouraging to see the connection being made between solar storms and interruption to electricity networks, sadly the wider issue of cosmic interference in Earth's systems is ignored despite the alarming reports of fireballs and meteorites piercing the planet's lower atmosphere.
The effects from a cometary impact would cause substantially greater damage to our fragile systems, producing catastrophic "cascade failures" on an ecological and humanitarian scale. It's now fairly well established that this has happened several times within
humanity's lifespan:
[...] the Holocene Impact Working Group - named for the period covering the last 20,000 years - have been proposing for years that several large objects from space hit the Earth with enough force to influence global climate within human history. Abbott estimates this happened perhaps five times in the last 6,000 years.
The increasing awareness that Earth meets cosmic storms on a regular basis is injecting some urgency into the issue:
UN is told that Earth needs an asteroid shieldUS urged to prepare for asteroid strikeAsteroid and comet threat is a challenge to mankind...but the signal is being drowned out by the noise generated by the twin hoaxes of the Global Pathocracy;
Global Warming and the
War on Terror.
Scientists note that incoming objects can produce very loud sounds, like the earth-shattering thunder that accompanied the
Tunguska cometary explosion. Could the tremendous booms people are hearing be
overhead explosions as space debris meets the atmosphere?
A recent chronology, by no means conclusive, of mysterious 'sonic' booms:
Feb 7th, Gold Coast, AustraliaFeb 5th, Marco Island, Florida, USAJan 21st, Grand Island, Nebraska, USAJan 15th, North Carolina, USA10th Jan, Louisiana, USA5th Jan, Calgary, Canada2nd Jan, Alaska, USA30th Dec, South Carolina, USA24th Dec, Iowa, USA12th Nov, Indiana, USA11th Nov, Arkansas, USA5th Nov, New ZealandNote how many are occurring / reported in the USA. Perhaps the Universe is trying to tell us something?
Comment: The concept of interdependency goes way beyond how long power is down in Canada because the sun sneezed the day before. While it's encouraging to see the connection being made between solar storms and interruption to electricity networks, sadly the wider issue of cosmic interference in Earth's systems is ignored despite the alarming reports of fireballs and meteorites piercing the planet's lower atmosphere.
The effects from a cometary impact would cause substantially greater damage to our fragile systems, producing catastrophic "cascade failures" on an ecological and humanitarian scale. It's now fairly well established that this has happened several times within humanity's lifespan: The increasing awareness that Earth meets cosmic storms on a regular basis is injecting some urgency into the issue:
UN is told that Earth needs an asteroid shield
US urged to prepare for asteroid strike
Asteroid and comet threat is a challenge to mankind
...but the signal is being drowned out by the noise generated by the twin hoaxes of the Global Pathocracy; Global Warming and the War on Terror.
Scientists note that incoming objects can produce very loud sounds, like the earth-shattering thunder that accompanied the Tunguska cometary explosion. Could the tremendous booms people are hearing be overhead explosions as space debris meets the atmosphere?
A recent chronology, by no means conclusive, of mysterious 'sonic' booms:
Feb 7th, Gold Coast, Australia
Feb 5th, Marco Island, Florida, USA
Jan 21st, Grand Island, Nebraska, USA
Jan 15th, North Carolina, USA
10th Jan, Louisiana, USA
5th Jan, Calgary, Canada
2nd Jan, Alaska, USA
30th Dec, South Carolina, USA
24th Dec, Iowa, USA
12th Nov, Indiana, USA
11th Nov, Arkansas, USA
5th Nov, New Zealand
Note how many are occurring / reported in the USA. Perhaps the Universe is trying to tell us something?