© Adam DuBrowa/FEMAA magnitude 7.2 earthquake damaged roads across northwestern Mexico and Southern California (like this one in Calexico) when it struck on 4 April 2010.
In 2010, at 40 minutes past 3:00 in the afternoon on 4 April — Easter Sunday — northwestern Mexico started to shake. A
magnitude 7.2 earthquake was rattling the Baja California region, ultimately causing three deaths and more than 100 injuries. The quake caused widespread damage in the border cities of Mexicali, Mexico, and Calexico, Calif. The quake made skyscrapers sway in San Diego, more than 160 kilometers west.
The earthquake sent waves through the ground around it, but high in the atmosphere, a very different sort of perturbation might have offered a forewarning of the earthquake's impending arrival, had anyone been able to see it. Subtle fluctuations in Earth's ionosphere, a region of charged particles high above the surface, preceded the Baja earthquake, said the authors of
a new paper published in
Advances in Space Research. Somehow, the fault that caused the earthquake may have been telegraphing its impending rupture, sending out a rush of electrically charged particles that resonated in the ionosphere.
The ionosphere, which begins about 48 kilometers above Earth's surface and stretches to around 965 kilometers, is where incoming energy from the Sun ionizes molecules in the atmosphere, knocking off electrons. The abundance of charged particles means the ionosphere reacts to electric and magnetic fields, something other regions of the atmosphere generally do not do.
Using data from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Haystack Observatory on the density of electrons in the ionosphere, a team of Chinese and U.S. researchers analyzed the atmosphere above the Baja California region for 72 days both before and after the earthquake. After controlling for other things that might have been affecting the ionosphere,
they said they saw a clear anomaly — a spike in the number of ionospheric electrons — on 25 March, 10 days before the earthquake. The electron spike was located over the earthquake's epicenter, and it didn't look like anything else they'd seen in the data.We can imagine it to be something like ripples in a lake, said
Chen Zhou, a researcher at Wuhan University in China and a coauthor of the paper. The electron signal looked like a brief, but telling, redistribution of particles from their normal movements and positions, one researchers were able to catch as it went by.
Zhou and his colleagues said their work could support a theory that faults release electrical energy in the days leading up to an earthquake. How exactly this happens isn't clear — some scientists think it's the result of radon gas released by a fault ionizing air molecules, whereas others hold that rocks under stress can release bursts of electrons.
Comment: Notably, and possibly as a sign of an uptick in geologic activity in the region, a study of Lake Michigan published in March of 2021, using a 30-year data set of deep water measurements, found that deep water temperature there had been rising, and 'scientists don't know why'.