OC (Taiwan) coastguards killed two mainland fishermen, which I believe are the first such casualties in the Taiwan strait in many years, if not decades.

They died off the coast of the Kinmen archipelago, which belongs to the ROC but which itself is just a couple of miles away from the Chinese mainland. Kinmen was in the news recently as Taiwanese media reported the US had dispatched special forces on the archipelago on a permanent basis which is extraordinarily provocative.

See: US army stations special forces 'permanently' near mainland China's coast, begins training Taiwan's troops

So far PRC authorities have been extremely restrained in their response, just condemning the "malignant incident" and asking for an immediate investigation by the ROC. Which goes to show that China is NOT looking for a confrontation in the Taiwan strait, as this is the type of incident that could be a casus belli. Just imagine for a minute the worldwide outcry if those fishermen had been from the ROC, and killed by the PRC... We just wouldn't hear the end of it.

Israel to face 'serious repercussions' over Rafah strikes - Saudi Arabia

© Said Khatib / AFPSmoke billowing during Israeli bombardment over Khan Yunis in Gaza, February 10, 2024.

Riyadh has said that going ahead with a major ground offensive planned in southern Gaza would cause a humanitarian disaster

Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry has issued a warning to Israel and its allies, saying they will face "very serious repercussions" if West Jerusalem goes through with a planned ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza's last place of refuge for civilians who have been displaced by the ongoing war.

The ministry's statement, posted on Saturday, decried the expected "storming and targeting" of Rafah, Gaza, where an estimated 1.4 million Palestinians have sought safe haven after being driven from their homes by Israeli bombing.

Rafah is "the last resort for hundreds of thousands of civilians forced by the brutal Israeli aggression to flee," Riyadh said. "The kingdom affirms its categorical rejection and strong condemnation of their forcible deportation and renews its demand for an immediate ceasefire."

The statement came one day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered his military to make plans for evacuating civilians crowded into Rafah as commanders prepare to attack the last Hamas stronghold in the Palestinian enclave. The city's pre-war population was around 280,000 people.

Netanyahu has rejected international calls for a ceasefire and has insisted that only "total victory" over Hamas will make Israel safe from the sort of attacks that triggered the region's latest war in October. Israel launched airstrikes in Rafah on Saturday, killing at least 44 people, according to Hamas.

More than 28,000 people have been killed in Gaza since the war began, according to the Hamas-run health authorities. The UN has reported that 85% of the population has been displaced from their homes, and 570,000 Gazans are starving. The conflict began when Hamas fighters raided Israeli villages, killing more than 1,200 people and taking hundreds of hostages back to Gaza.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry suggested that both Israel and its backers will be held accountable for what happens in Rafah.

"This continued violation of international law and international humanitarian law confirms the need for an urgent convening of the UN Security Council to prevent Israel from causing an imminent humanitarian disaster for which everyone who supports the aggression is responsible."

Saudi Arabia and Israel were reportedly negotiating to establish diplomatic relations when the surprise Hamas attacks were launched. Riyadh's Foreign Ministry said earlier this week that it will not establish formal ties with Israel until the "aggression" against Gaza is halted and an independent Palestinian state - framed along 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital - is recognized.

Smith puts America's failure down to monumental hubris.

• Assumed Russian economic weakness. They believed that the Russian economy was weak, easily demolished and that Putin's rule was based on sharing the loot with underbosses. Sanctions would cripple the economy and cut the underbosses' takings and they would get rid of Putin and that would be that. Maybe Russia itself would break up. "Cripple the economy", "Ruble to Rubble".
• Assumed Russian battlefield incompetence. They swallowed the "Three Alibis". Russians were no good at war and only beat the Germans because Hitler made stupid decisions, it was cold and they had endless manpower resources. The work of David Glantz's team was forgotten.
• Assumed NATO superiority. They believed that NATO training, weapons and everything else were wonderful, superior and "game changers" - ooh, so powerful! Russian weapons were junk, they were running out of them, superior NATO training and weapons would make the disheartened and untrained Russian oafs run screaming in terror.
• Bad history. They swallowed the postwar falsification of history - captive nations, "communist subjugation of free people" - all Nazis were Germans and Hitler drove the trains. Nazi collaborators became brave freedom fighters who dreamed of the American Way. We knowingly let Nazis into our countries? No way. So when Putin talked of Nazis in Ukraine, they knew he was just making it up.