© JONATHAN NACKSTRAND/AFP via Getty ImagesSwedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven
Sweden has been pretty much the only country in the world to have responded to coronavirus using a voluntary system: advising, rather than instructing, the public. But this has changed today with Stefan Löfven, the Prime Minister, saying
he will pass a law to introduce a ban on gatherings of eight people or more. 'Do your duty. Do not go to the gym, do not go to the library, do not have parties. Do not come up with excuses that would make your activity OK,' he
said in a press conference. 'It is your and my choices — every single day, every single hour, every single moment — that will now determine how we manage this.'
To hear from Löfven at all on Covid is unusual: so far the state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has been the face of its Covid response.
Tegnell seems unimpressed. 'This is the government's decision when it comes to how many people can gather,' he told Swedish radio earlier today.
'It is not us putting the foot down.' Indeed his public health agency recently abolished extra restrictions for the over-70s saying the harm caused by loneliness and isolation outweighs the risk from the virus. It rejected compulsory lockdown, saying the side effects would be too great and people would — if asked — do the right thing. This is in spite of the fact that Sweden was hit far worse than its Nordic neighbours and was up there with Britain when it comes to deaths per capita. Until a few weeks ago it looked as if it did not have much of a second wave problem.
But now, the second wave is striking Sweden hard. Fredrik Elgh, professor of virology at Umeå University, recently told SVT that hospitalisations in Sweden are two weeks away from surpassing the peak of the first wave. This builds political pressure — which Tegnell has tended not to respond to.
Comment: Over at Lockdown Sceptics, Will Jones
comments:
This shift in strategy to a nationally enforced "Rule of 8" does not appear to have the backing of state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, who has said he wants to use the same no-lockdown approach for the "second wave" as he did for the first.
Perhaps the PM is listening instead to Fredrik Elgh, Professor of Virology at Umeå University, who recently claimed Sweden is two weeks away from surpassing the first wave's peak hospitalisations. Has he not noticed that ICU admissions are currently in decline? And does he not recall that the health service coped fine in the spring?
Prof Elgh also noted that lockdowns appear to have worked in Belgium and the Czech Republic. But it's cherry-picking data to look just at two countries where a decline happened to coincide with restrictions.
What about the fact that Sweden's first wave declined with no lockdown, while in the UK the R rate dropped below 1 before lockdown both in the spring and in the autumn?
Why is the country introducing lockdown measures now, when there is nothing to indicate an autumn out of the ordinary? It may be because the country had hoped to have a milder autumn surge than they are experiencing. But that disappointment doesn't change the basic parameters, which is that Covid has not been responsible for more than a medium to severe flu season anywhere, whatever restrictions have been applied. The graph below illustrates this point perfectly, showing Sweden's 2019-2020 flu season death toll scarcely higher than earlier years. Not locking down does not result in a death toll much beyond the normal range, and most of those who die are already past the average life expectancy.
All-cause deaths in Sweden in October-May (not adjusted for population)
What a shame that the chin-wobbling Swedish politicians seem at this late stage to have developed a hunger for locking down. Whatever restrictions they now impose though, Sweden remains an important demonstration of what happens when a country refuses to lock down. Sweden may not want to heed the lessons of its own example, but others can.
World leaders all over the world are freaking out over nothing.
Scotland will enter a useless "short and sharp" lockdown - closing pubs, restaurants, gyms and 'non-essential' shops, banning meetings in private homes, banning travel between areas - because Christmas.
South Korea is imposing stricter social distancing rules. The
French health minister says there's no end in sight for lockdown - even thought ICU numbers have dropped.
Germany's Merkel is telling people to "reduce contacts" because of the "uncontrolled spread" of the virus. That's what viruses do during flu season, Merkel, and this one practically harmless.
Over in the States,
California's weak governor is "considering" imposing a curfew, because of a surge in "cases" (i.e., false positives). Iowa is imposing a statewide mask mandate.
Your leaders lie. This is a pseudo-pandemic caused by false positives.
On the bright side,
Bergamo, Italy, seems to have achieved some level of herd immunity after
actually being hit hard early this year.
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