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Preamble.

Russia's Special Operation in the Ukraine is now two weeks old and for all the horrors that war brings, it is effecting huge changes around the globe. With this conflict being as broad and dynamic as it is, a short article such as this cannot even begin to cover all the facets of current happenings. A look at the how and why we have arrived at this situation is possible however, this not only explaining the today, but giving us a very good idea of what this may mean for the future, both in Eastern Europe as well as the world in general.

America Abroad.

For all the fires of war that we have seen over previous weeks, the spark that started the blaze was the Maidan protests of 2013-14. The cause of that spark being the speech by President Putin in Munich, in 2007. His calls for the end of a unipolar world were seen as a call to arms by the US - determined that its absolute dominance of world affairs remain unchallenged. With Yanukovych steering his country towards closer ties with Russia during 2013, Uncle Sam's global roadshow went into overdrive, yet for all the writing that was then on the wall, Europe's leaders did everything they could to ensure that Washington got its way in spite of the consequences to European security.

Flickering Flames.

It was a given fact that European leaders had turned a blind eye to US and NATO transgressions in the Middle East and elsewhere for decades, yet as a civil war raged on the EU's doorstep, Brussels continued to to hear, speak and see no evil as the Ukrainian situation spiraled ever further downwards. The very organizations that were born of the ashes of a fallen Nazi regime allowed this ideology to run rampant in its neighborhood, this stupidity on Europe's part allowing America's useful idiots to gain a stranglehold throughout the government and armed forces in Kiev. With a raft of sanctions placed on Moscow after Crimea rejoined Russia the future stage was set, yet one only has to consider the fact that business between the EU and Russian Federation was conducted in dollars and not euros to realize that Brussels is merely Washington's 'man in Europe'. With the script having been written for Europe from across the Atlantic, it's hardly surprising that a war that lasted for eight years and claimed upwards of fourteen thousand lives was not even recognized, yet the creeping menace that the Ukraine came to be, both in the Donbass and as a puppet of the West meant that sooner or later, if the Ukrainians did not change direction, they were on a collision course with Russia.

Fire Alarm.

After more than seven years of war and Kiev making ever stronger threats against Russia and Russians, it was finally time for Moscow to present its security demands, these going to the puppetmaster in Washington rather than any lackeys in Europe. Zelenskiy in Kiev, just like his predecessor Poroshenko, constantly called for implementation of the Minsk Agreement whilst publicly rejecting it himself. This, coupled with an absolute refusal on Washington's part to discuss Moscow's concerns meant diplomacy had run its course. Talking the talk had failed, walking the walk becoming the only option left if Moscow was not to fall under the threat of impending attack from either Kiev or its master in the states.

Wunder Waffen.

With the Russian Special Operation now into its third week, things are now coming to light that may turn out to be real game-changers concerning the whole invasion. The West still bleats and sanctions, yet for all the prior knowledge that Russia had regarding bioweapons laboratories in the Ukraine, recent discoveries by the Russian Armed Forces mean that the work of these establishments now coming into much sharper focus. Not only were they working with a number of deadly pathogens which are outside the realms of everyday medicine, but their work was funded and controlled from Washington. If that was not bad enough, rumors (and they only remain rumors to date) of a nuclear weapons program began to surface. The exact details of both of these programs as well as the research that was being carried out in the missile sphere until the start of the conflict still remain in the hands of a few players, yet if this truly was the case, the West truly was creating a situation that Russia could no longer ignore. As is, Kiev benefits from the very best intelligence that the western world can give, yet had the Russian government given Kiev a few more months, it could have had a nuclear or biological threat on its borders along with a delivery system.

Europe as a Colony.

For all the impact that eight years of the Donbass War have had on Europe, both Eastern and Western, the pivotal issue is that it was the US that engineered this situation from the outset. Washington is desperate to weaken Russia, the global climate being increasingly at odds with a unipolar world run from across the Atlantic. That Europeans have known of this for decades and continued to back the Wily West beggars belief, yet von der Leyen, Borrel and others are now beginning to realize that the further they go, the less leverage they have over America's created nemesis. As things stand today they have few cards left to play, and if they push Russia much harder, the European empire they have created over the decades will collapse like the house of cards that it has become. After two years of a pandemic, no nation on earth was really in a position to take risks, yet with so little fuel that it desperately needs and millions of immigrants that it really doesn't, it is going to be the Old Continent that will become the first victim of transatlantic malfeasance. Sanctions have already curtailed many of the lucrative deals that it had with Russian markets, yet with ever fewer sanctions to levy at the same time as stagflation takes an ever greater toll on markets, Brussels is just not positioned to push important neighbors such as Russia around. It was not until Europe finally decided it no longer needed Russia as a trading partner that it realized how important Moscow really is to European affairs. The last fortnight has seen energy prices reach unprecedented levels, this impacting the European economy in a myriad of ways. Those sat in the corridors of power in Brussels may want to walk down Washington's path, but the effects of current events may however see people marching on their governments to ask where transatlantic politics are going to lead both them and their nations.

Expensive Exercise.

The operation during the last six months to place ever more pressure on Russia in order that it play by western rules was always on the understanding that Russia would eventually back down giving the US et al the veneer of victory, yet with Moscow ignoring the threats and going to war, this has left the West in a real quandary. Whilst the Russian economy is suffering from the measures taken by western governments, those same nations are also starting to feel the backblast from their own actions. With fuel prices going through the roof today and certain foodstuffs doing the same tomorrow, certain economies that were previously on the brink of recession may have pushed themselves over the edge. Not only that, but with other raw materials such as nickel soaring in price, the operation against Russia that certain nations always wished for may now be having consequences that they never wanted. Blips in the market are frequent, yet rather than seeing corrections on the horizon, many in Europe and the US are now going to have to come to terms with the fact that the world is now steering a new course, and one that does not invariably play into the hands of western governments and corporations. The all-mighty US might have said that Russia was 'a gas station of a country', but looking at not only its wealth of wares as well as the world's hunger for them, no Russian gas means hot air from politicians at the same time as a number of economies will soon be running on empty.

Immigration Issues.

Millions of migrants have now left the Ukraine, some of them on trains, and some through the very scant humanitarian corridors that the Ukrainians have permitted. Others have left in their luxury vehicles, escorted to the border by the Ukrainian police. This tide will continue for the foreseeable future, yet where it will end and the consequences it will bring to Europe can only be contemplated as we go forward. The world is slowly waking to the fact that a huge number of Ukrainians have dangerous right-wing leanings, yet are not as resilient as they'd like you to think when faced with Russian soldiers. With thousands of these individuals filtering into Europe, one has to question how are they going to affect the European way of life into the future. A decade of immigrants in Scandinavia has seen some some most undesirable tendencies, yet rather than a cultural mismatch, many Ukrainian youths are an ideological nightmare, they being used to force and extremism as their raison d'être. What is interesting (or obvious, depending on your viewpoint) is the fact that to date, for all the wailing from Washington, the US has not offered to take any immigrants at all. America may have hosted Kiev's militia on numerous occasions in order to train them for war, but should that long-planned conflict appear, suddenly the doors are slammed in their faces.

The Entertainment Industry.

With governments around the globe going into previously unseen yet very carefully rehearsed histrionics, sanctions and threats as well as the tantrums and fits have come to typify the behavior of western talking heads over the last fortnight, the West is making every attempt to be seen to be as angry as possible. Everyone from chat show hosts to politicians to businessmen have used the fires of war to blow smoke up each others' asses on national TV, wartime giving many wannabe celebrities airtime that they would not under normal circumstances have. As was the case in previous western conflicts, all manner of characters have crawled out of the woodwork in order that waving the Ukrainian in their scripted performances may help save their flagging careers. This conflict has seen the dawn of a new tactic however, that being of banning Russian media. Just as with any totalitarian regime, western governments want absolutely no backchat from sources not completely loyal to them, 'learn less' being the motto, 'question more' now being the sole preserve of those with a VPN. Today anyone speaking on Moscow's behalf is considered the same as Lord Haw Haw of the Second World War, yet this time it is the West playing the oppressor.

The Road Ahead.

Bearing both events and those controlling them in mind, where will this take us into the future?

The first thing we have to consider is that it is not just the happenings in Eastern Europe that have caused a polar shift on both sides of the new Iron Curtain. Quite what projects were being conducted in the Ukraine and to what degree the West was involved has not yet made itself completely apparent, but what was clear from even before the outset of current hostilities was the fact that the Ukraine has full western backing, yet only in the material sense. This whole affair is the result of western malfeasance, yet the West that caused the mess is not in any way willing to risk itself to address the consequences. On the other side of the line, things are very different. Whilst the reasons for war are only gradually becoming apparent, the Russian public supports the Kremlin's decision at the same time as it supports the war. Russia does not habitually enter into conflict, yet after years of goading, Moscow's promises concerning its red lines were regretfully fulfilled. A divide between East and West is now in place, yet for all the troubles this may cause Russia today, looking to the long term, this will be of benefit to the country and its people. A West mired in the problems of its own creation will attempt to drag down anyone within reach as it slowly sinks, the dead weight of a moribund empire not being something that the East wishes to either support or suffer. New markets will inevitably open where previous ones have closed, new associations meaning not only new opportunities for Russia, but lost ones for the West. The pain of the bloodletting we see today may prevent the infection of western exceptionalism as we move forward into a drastically altered future.

Summary.

Former colonial powers under the yoke of the American empire thought they could browbeat Russia into being another victory on their chessboard, yet with that plan hinging on Russia's eventual submission and humiliation, Moscow's stance has scotched their plans. With no desire to put skin in their own game and an energy crisis laying European economies bare, Washington's Ukrainian operation may end up being worse than the recession that was already threatening the West as a whole. A war today may not be what Russia wanted, yet with the biological and nuclear discoveries being made of late, Russia's decision to invade makes more sense by the day. With that, the resulting break it has made from Europe may save the country as the Old Continent slowly breaks down under increasingly authoritarian rule from both sides of the Atlantic. It was always the West that fueled the fires of this war, yet the heat of war has already started a new Cold War, it leaving the hapless West without the fuel it needs to survive...