27 Sep, 2024 15:33
Ukraine conflict will end in 'Korean scenario' - Serbian leader
It was "stupid" of the West to underestimate Russia's military and economic might, Aleksandar Vucic has said

Moscow and Kiev will eventually stop fighting, but the conflict is likely to end in a 'Korean scenario' stalemate, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has said. He argued that the sides will likely be unable to find a fundamental solution to the conflict for decades to come.

The term 'Korean scenario' refers to the aftermath of the war on the eponymous peninsula in the 1950s which ended in an armistice and the formation of two separate states - North and South Korea. Under such a scenario open hostilities are suspended but the sides are unable to agree on a peaceful resolution.

According to Vucic, a version of this scenario is the most likely outcome of the standoff between Moscow and Kiev.

"There can be no peace because the Russians now have a psychological advantage on the battlefield... In the end, there will be a conflict freeze, the Korean scenario will be reached, and it will not have a final solution for 10, 20 or 30 years," he told Serbian news outlet Informer on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York on Thursday.

Vucic said the Korean scenario is the best solution to the conflict that the West can hope for, as American opinion polls indicate that public support for Washington's Ukraine policy has been rapidly fading.

"America will fight hard against Russia in Ukraine, but it will also look after its own interests," the Serbian leader argued. He added that the West made a mistake in "underestimating" Russia and betting on Kiev to win.

"Russians now, with all the problems and difficulties they have... they showed that they are tougher than everyone expected. I'm talking about the economy, it was stupid to underestimate it," he said, referring to the unprecedented sanctions the West placed on Moscow in response to the conflict.

Many experts have noted that Russia has not only withstood the sanctions pressure, but has managed to expand economically, while the sanctions backfired on many Western states. Vucic also said the West was "terribly stupid to underestimate the Russian army," because whoever has done that before, "we know how they went down in history."

Serbia's official stance on the Ukraine conflict is neutral. It has refused to sanction Moscow despite strong pressure from the US and EU, though it supports Ukraine's territorial integrity and views it as a friendly nation. Vucic previously claimed that Serbia has donated more humanitarian aid to Kiev than the other Balkan states combined.

27 Sep, 2024 09:20
Lavrov warns UN chief not to fall for 'pseudo-peace' initiatives
The Russian foreign minister has urged Antonio Guterres to remain impartial in the Ukraine conflict

UN officials should not be drawn into "pseudo-peace initiatives" to resolve the Ukraine conflict, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Thursday.

Lavrov met with Guterres on the sidelines of the annual high-level gathering of the UN General Assembly in New York.

"An urgent appeal is addressed to Guterres to prevent representatives of UN structures from being drawn into politicized pseudo-peace initiatives in the context of the Ukrainian crisis," Lavrov said, according to a Foreign Ministry statement issued after the meeting.

The Russian diplomat reiterated the importance of strict adherence by UN officials "to the principles of impartiality and equidistance, including in relation to the crimes of the Kiev regime," the statement added.

In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled that Moscow would immediately open peace talks with Kiev if Ukraine withdrew troops from the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics and Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions. The Russian leader also said Kiev must drop its aspirations of joining NATO.

Ukraine rejected the proposal as "unrealistic." Kiev initiated a so-called 'peace summit' in Switzerland in June, to which Russia was not invited. The UN participated as an observer, although Guterres did not attend.

The gathering revolved around the peace formula proposed by Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky, but did not touch on some of Kiev's key demands, including the withdrawal of Russian troops from territory Ukraine claims as its own.

Shortly after Kiev launched an incursion into Russia's Kursk Region in August, Putin stated that peace talks were impossible while Ukraine continues to conduct strikes on civilians and threatens nuclear power plants. Zelensky has claimed the attack is part of his 'victory plan' to end the conflict.

Earlier this month, the Ukrainian leader also said he wanted Russia "at the table" during his next 'peace event'. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova rejected the idea, saying Moscow would not attend any such gathering.

27 Sep, 2024 08:52
US not ruling out territory trade in Ukraine conflict
It is up to Vladimir Zelensky to decide if and when to give up land to Russia, the US National Security Council spokesman has said

Washington does not rule out the possibility of Ukraine trading land for peace with Russia, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Thursday.

Following a White House meeting between US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky, Kirby was asked if he agreed there was no way to end the conflict without Ukraine ceding territory to Russia.

"I mean, that is going to be up to him," he replied, referring to Zelensky.

Kirby said the US administration is focused solely "on making sure that Ukraine has what it needs to be successful on that battlefield," instead of being involved in the "game" of coming up with alternative scenarios and saying, "Gee, maybe we could convince Zelensky to trade this for that."

"If and when and how this war ends, it is got to be in a way that... Zelensky and the Ukrainian people can accept. He gets to decide the conditions. He gets to decide the circumstances. And if there is trade space, he gets to decide what that trade space is," he said.

Kirby confirmed that Biden "would very much like to see the war ended as soon as possible," but stressed that Kiev was not getting directions from the White House on what peace talks should look like.

The US president announced another $8 billion in military assistance to Ukraine during his meeting with Zelensky in the oval office. Biden also thanked the Ukrainian leader for presenting him his plan for "victory" over Russia.

The details have not been made public, but Kirby said that the proposal includes "initiatives and steps and objectives" that Zelensky believes could end the conflict and deter Moscow in the future.

In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow was ready to stop the fighting and begin talks with Ukraine if Kiev officially gave up its desire to join NATO and withdrew from the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics and the regions of Kherson and Zaporozhye, which joined Russia after referendums in the fall of 2022.

Zelensky rejected the offer, branding it an "ultimatum." The Kremlin said those terms were no longer on the table after Ukraine launched an incursion into Russia's Kursk Region in early August.

The German economy has been shrinking over the past two years and will remain stagnant for the rest of the year as it continues to grapple with economic malaise, Bloomberg reported on Friday.

According to a survey conducted by the outlet, the EU's top economy has been stalling in the three months through September, marking a deeper-than-expected decline.

Economists have already started downgrading their forecasts for this year, with some now seeing protracted stagnation or even another downturn.

Martin Belchev, an analyst at FrontierView told Bloomberg:

"While we expect the market to see a mild recovery at the end of 2024 and in 2025, much of it will be cyclical, with downside risks remaining acute."

He warned that the faltering automotive sector will further exacerbate downward pressures on growth as the top four German carmakers have seen double-digit declines.

The country's central bank said on Thursday in its monthly report that the German economy may already be in recession. According to the Bundesbank, gross domestic product (GDP) "could stagnate or decline slightly again" in the third quarter, after a 0.1% contraction in the second quarter.

Economic sentiment in the country has suffered due to weak industrial activity, Budensbank President Joachim Nagel said on Wednesday.

"Stagnation might be more or less on the cards for full-year 2024 as well if the latest forecasts by economic research institutes are anything to go by."

German industry is struggling amid weak demand in key export markets, shortages of qualified workers, tighter monetary policy, the protracted fallout from the energy crisis, and growing competition from China.

The Eurozone's largest economy has been falling behind its peers over the past years, largely due to a prolonged manufacturing downturn. Germany was the only Group of Seven economy to contract in 2023.