
© U.S. State DepartmentSecretary of State Mike Pompeo, President Trump and John Bolton during the NATO Foreign Ministerial in Brussels, Belgium, July 2018.
On March 14, Russia's National Security Council, headed by President Putin, officially raised its perception of American intentions toward Russia from "military dangers" (opasnosti) to direct "military threats"
(ugrozy). In short, the Kremlin is
preparing for war, however defensive its intention.
Why? Why would Putin do that? 'Trump doesn't want more wars... He has consistently called for good relations with Moscow. And now that Mueller has come up with zero...'.
This is the familiar refrain that suggests that a confrontation with Russia simply cannot happen: "It wouldn't make any sense: it would not be rational". Well, maybe Russia is reading the 'tea-leaves' differently, and maybe they simply understand that when it comes to wars, it is often the non-rational that trumps the rational.
As Russia might view things, the precursors for a conflict in the Middle East are fast falling into place.
On the one hand, we have a very hawkish Israel, 'pie-eyed' from large draughts of team Trump's 'Greater Israel' cool-aid; then we have Bolton prosecuting his ancient hatred for Iran - trying to corner the Republic, and to implode it.These represent major clashes of tectonic plates, especially as the northern tier of the region (including Turkey) is now with Iran (to one, or other extent). Moscow will be aware that colliding tectonic plates release hot plasma, which all too easily can spread to scald Russia.
Comment:
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In the "that aged well" category: