People wearing masks
© Reuters / Mario Anzuoni
People wearing face masks walk on Hollywood Blvd in Los Angeles, California, March 29, 2021
The emergence of a new COVID variant with a similar death rate to MERS, which kills one in three infected people, is a "realistic possibility", the government's scientific advisers have warned.

However the experts also say the virus could result in "much less severe disease" in older people and those who are clinically vulnerable in the long term.

In a paper published on Friday, the scientists outline the chances that a new variant will evade current vaccines, saying one of the causes is "almost certain" to happen.

The document written by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) looked at the "long term evolution of SARS-CoV-2", the virus that causes COVID-19.

It said the eradication of the virus "will be unlikely" and the scientists have "high confidence in stating that there will always be variants".


Comment: These points were known from the very beginning, and yet governments enforced lockdowns anyway, which had a devastating impact all on their own but they are also likely made the situation with the virus even worse.


They considered a scenario where a variant causes severe disease in a greater proportion of the population than has previously occurred, with similar death rates to other coronaviruses SARS (10%) or MERS (35%).


Comment: Except the overall death rate with Covid-19 is known to not much more about 0.05%.


The experts said this could be caused by a "recombination" between two variants of concern or variants under investigation, such as between beta and alpha or delta variants.


Comment: With the introduction of the experimental mRNA vaccines it's possible that a recombination event could occur with a virus other than a coronavirus variant, which means that the likelihood of it happening may be even higher than they realise.


SAGE warned that the likelihood of a more severe variant under these circumstances was a "realistic possibility".

It set out measures the government should consider to combat this, including minimising the "introduction of new variants from other territories (to reduce risk of recombination between variants)".


Comment: So they're suggesting more lockdowns? Even though that didn't work for Covid-19 they presume it will somehow work for the variants?


uk covid infection rate

Despite rising infections, the number of hospitalisations and deaths in the third wave are low relative to the second wave
Ministers confirmed this week that England would allow fully vaccinated visitors from both the EU and the United States to arrive without needing to quarantine from 2 August.


Comment: This reflects just how little of 'the science' is being followed, because they also admit that being 'fully vaccinated' - a vague and constantly changing label - does not preclude one from getting sick and transmitting a variant. On the contrary, there's strong evidence showing that the injections are actually the cause of the variants.


SAGE also looked at a scenario where the coronavirus becomes like one "that causes common colds, but with much less severe disease predominantly in the old or clinically vulnerable."

It said that while it was "unlikely in the short term", there is a "realistic possibility in the long term".

Meanwhile, SAGE said a scenario where a variant evades current vaccines because of a process known as "antigenic drift" is "almost certain".


Comment: The coronavirus is relatively harmless to the vast majority of people, so why risk antigenic drift with experimental injections?


It suggests that the UK needs to continue vaccinating vulnerable age groups "at regular periods with updated vaccines" to the dominant variants to increase their protection.


Comment: And yet the establishment are pushing injections on children, who aren't a 'vulnerable age group', except, of course, when it comes to the danger of the vaccines themselves: Dr. Yeadon warns: Children 50 TIMES more likely to die from covid vaccine than from virus


Clinical epidemiologist Dr Deepti Gurdasani said the SAGE paper was a "stark warning".

Writing on Twitter, she said: "Given the impact Delta has already had, and in light of recent evidence from the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), we cannot afford any more new variants emerging - we need to take preventive action now."

She added that the SAGE paper "makes clear that the virus becoming less virulent is unlikely in the short term".

"So for all those who suggest that we should live with it, and it'll become like seasonal coronaviruses and benign, doesn't look like that's likely to happen anytime soon," Dr Gurdasani wrote.

COVID infection rates have continued to rise across England, Wales and Northern Ireland - but dropped in Scotland, according to the latest estimates.


Comment: Note that high infection rates are correlated with areas with high rates of injections, but we also know the tests themselves are flawed, giving an overwhelming number of false positives, so the numbers are up for question; even so, the term 'infection' can be meaningless when those that are infected are asymptomatic, aka healthy and showing no signs of sickness, and aren't at risk of infecting others.


Data from the Office for National Statistics shows that in the week ending 24 July, approximately one in 65 people were estimated to have had the disease in England.

More than 5.8 million coronavirus cases have been recorded in the UK during the pandemic, with nearly 130,000 people dying within 28 days of a positive test, according to government figures.