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Tue, 30 Nov 2021
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Extreme Temperatures

Control Panel

Sorry IPCC - How you portrayed the global temperature plateau is comical at best

global warming fraud
© Unknown
The IPCC released their "approved" Summary for Policymakers for their 5th Assessment Report early this morning (eastern U.S. time), still in draft form. As far as I can tell, there are two paragraphs that discuss the recent global temperature plateau.

Note: I haven't yet crosschecked between the draft and the approved versions to see if they've made any significant changes, so the following may be old hat.

From page 3:
In addition to robust multi-decadal warming, global mean surface temperature exhibits substantial decadal and interannual variability (see Figure SPM.1). Due to natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends. As one example, the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998 - 2012; 0.05 [ - 0.05 to +0.15] °C per decade), which begins with a strong El Niño, is smaller than the rate calculated since 1951 (1951 - 2012; 0.12 [0.08 to 0.14] °C per decade).
And from page 12:
The observed reduction in surface warming trend over the period 1998 - 2012 as compared to the period 1951 - 2012, is due in roughly equal measure to a reduced trend in radiative forcing and a cooling contribution from internal variability, which includes a possible redistribution of heat within the ocean (medium confidence). The reduced trend in radiative forcing is primarily due to volcanic eruptions and the timing of the downward phase of the 11-year solar cycle. However, there is low confidence in quantifying the role of changes in radiative forcing in causing the reduced warming trend. There is medium confidence that internal decadal variability causes to a substantial degree the difference between observations and the simulations; the latter are not expected to reproduce the timing of internal variability. There may also be a contribution from forcing inadequacies and, in some models, an overestimate of the response to increasing greenhouse gas and other anthropogenic forcing (dominated by the effects of aerosols). {9.4, Box 9.2, 10.3, Box 10.2, 11.3}
Regarding the cause of the warming, still living in fantasy world, they write:
Greenhouse gases contributed a global mean surface warming likely to be in the range of 0.5°C to 1.3°C over the period 1951−2010, with the contributions from other anthropogenic forcings, including the cooling effect of aerosols, likely to be in the range of −0.6°C to 0.1°C. The contribution from natural forcings is likely to be in the range of −0.1°C to 0.1°C, and from internal variability is likely to be in the range of −0.1°C to 0.1°C. Together these assessed contributions are consistent with the observed warming of approximately 0.6°C to 0.7°C over this period. {10.3}
They're still misleading the public. Everyone knows (well, many of us know) their models can't simulate the natural processes that cause surface temperatures to warm over multidecadal timeframes, yet they insist on continuing this myth.

Comment: From 'Hiding the Decline' to 'Burying the Pause': Man-made Global Warming is still a lie


Snowflake Cold

Record cold in Siberia - "This is not the end"

Moscow snow
© Unknown
Record cold could also blast Eastern Europe.

In Krasnoyarsk , the temperature dropped to the lowest level in history, -6.5 ° C, according to the Russian Institute for Hydrological and Meteorological. Previous minimum of -6.4 ° C. was established September 27, 1988.

The Institute adds that it is a mean daily , not the minimum temperature , so you can guess that mercury bars at night dropped to below -15 degrees.

Already 60 per cent of the Asian part of Russia is covered with snow several centimeters deep. The snow is heaviest in the mountains of Magadan (40 cm) and the Yamal Peninsula (20 cm).

Coldest September in Moscow this century. And wettest?

All indications are this September in Moscow will be the coldest since the beginning of this century.

According to the Russian Institute in September this year in Moscow the mercury never exceeded 20 ° C, a very unusual phenomenon. Meteorologists estimate that this is the second month of this year, after March, with temperatures well below long-term norms.

September was not only cold, but also very wet - in the capital has fallen three times more rain than usual (up to 282 per cent on September 26).

Snowflake

Riverton, Wyoming - 2nd largest September snowstorm ever

Riverton, Wy, snowstorm
© Unknown
Connie Hoffman watched as neighbor Jacob Reutner sawed through fallen limbs that had crushed the chain link fence in Ruth Allison's front yard on East Adams Avenue.
"Plus, almost 4 weeks earlier than normal!" says reader Ralph Fato. Average 1st snow is October 22nd for RIW, says Ralph. They got 5.7″ on September 26-27 this year. Almost 4 weeks earlier than normal!

It's also the 2nd largest September snowstorm, and the 2nd highest snow total for the entire month of September. I believe records go back to 1907, not sure though.Green Leaves were still on the trees! (see more pics on their FB page)

"The question has been raised, "This is early for snow." Well, yes and no. Let's use the town of Riverton as an example. The average date of first measurable snowfall in Riverton is October 22nd; however, there have been several major September snow storms in Riverton's history. The earliest snow was on September 6th, 1929 when 3″ of snow fell.

The three largest September snow storms in history were:

The Riverton COOP station reported 1.50″ of water and 5.7″ of snow for the 24-hour period ending Friday, September 27, 2013, at 7 AM. That snowfall totals ties the storm that struck September 22-24, 2000, for the second largest September snow storm. September 2013 is now tied with September 2000 as the second snowiest"

NOAA's link here

Snowflake Cold

Shortest summer on record in Alaska

Oddly, the IPCC forgot to mention this in their report.

With the early arrival of freezing conditions this month, it should be no surprise that the length of the continuous summer thaw season was the shortest on record in Fairbanks

Alaska summer thaw season
© Unknown
Deep Cold: Interior and Northern Alaska Weather & Climate: Short Summer Thaw Season

Snow Globe

First snowfall hits Moscow - Earlier than usual

Image
© RIA Novosti. Vladimir Astapkovich
Moscow was hit with the first snow of the year on Wednesday, eyewitnesses in a southern district said, with forecasters predicting the current cold spell isn't going away any time soon.

"The snow was falling for five-seven minutes, it started at about 3:07 p.m.," a resident who lives close to the Yugо-Zapadnaya subway station, the southernmost stop on the Red line, told RIA Novosti. "Now the sun is out again."

Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing on Wednesday night, forecasters from the Fobos weather center told RIA Novosti. Wet snow and rain is in the forecast for Thursday.

Snowflake Cold

Ancient muddy memories?

ice age ancient legends
© Marinus Anthony Van Der Sluijs
Echoes of a primordial landscape? Þingvellir, Iceland.
Many cultures recalled a period of unbearable cold, which they associated with a distant mythical age of 'creation', when the sun did not yet shine or fire had not yet been obtained.

Such tales are hardly surprising for higher latitudes, such as the Viking sagas of Iceland, but present a palaeoclimatological puzzle elsewhere.

For example, the Cherokee (originally along the Tennessee), who should be quite accustomed to climatic extremes, claimed that the first fire was confined to a special tree - arguably an axis mundi - at a time of lasting cold:
'In the beginning there was no fire, and the world was cold, until the Thunders (Ani´-Hyûñ´tikwalâ´ski), who lived up in Galûn´lati, sent their lightning and put fire into the bottom of a hollow sycamore tree which grew on an island. ... This was a long time ago. ... still there was no fire, and the world was cold ...'
Eventually, mythical beings succeeded in acquiring the fire. At tropical latitudes meanwhile, the Quiché Maya (Guatemala) related that their first ancestors were overcome by circumstances most peculiar for central America:
'After that a great downpour began, which cut short the fire of the tribes. And hail fell thickly on all the tribes, and their fires were put out by the hail. Their fires didn't start up again. ... And so again the tribes arrived, again done in by the cold. Thick were the white hail, the blackening storm, and the white crystals. The cold was incalculable. They were simply overwhelmed. Because of the cold all the tribes were going along doubled over, groping along ...'
And the Bibbulmun nation (southwestern tip of Australia) referred to the 'Dreamtime' or the 'ancestral' time (Demma Goomber) as the 'Nyitting times, the cold, cold times of long ago'. As the name says, the Bibbulmun qualified this past era as one dominated by unprecedented cold - and, consequently, by a savage mode of living:

'In that far-off time Australia was not so warm and congenial as it is to-day. It was cold and bleak, and great glaciers of ice covered many of its hills and valleys. ... "the icy cold (nyitting) times of long, long ago". Now, in an icy cold country one must have fires, but there was a time when the Bibbulmun people had no fires, and they had to eat their meat raw and drink the blood of the animals they killed to warm their bodies.

The theme of a cold epoch meshes with the notion of 'primordial darkness' reported universally to have preceded the formation of the present natural environment. Another associated motif is that the embryonic earth was excessively muddy and wet, a necessary consequence of the earth's putative original submersion in primeval waters. In addition, the moist earth is often linked with the aftermath of the deluge and the first appearance of humans and the sun. Though scholars never seem to have compiled the material, let alone considered it, the literature is awash with examples. A selection follows.

Snowflake

16 feet of snow possible at Mt Rainier next 4 days

193 inches ! (490 cm !) - In late September !

Image
© Wikimedia Commons
Mount Rainier
Mt Rainier WA

7 Day Forecast

Tonight Snow. Could be heavy at times. Low around 18. South southwest wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation 100%. New snow accumulation of 17 to 23 inches possible.

Saturday Snow. Could be heavy at times. High near 24. Windy, with a southwest wind 16 to 26 mph increasing to 26 to 36 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation 100%. New snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible.

Saturday Night Snow. Could be heavy at times. Low around 15. Windy, with a southwest wind around 37 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation 100%. New snow accumulation of 25 to 31 inches possible.

Igloo

Snow already? Crater Lake gets record-smashing 8 inches

Crater Lake
© Wikimedia Commons
Crater Lake - Crater Lake received a record-smashing 8 inches of snow in 24 hours Tuesday into Wednesday, the National Weather Service reported.

More than one month ahead of schedule, the frosty blanket made its earliest appearance since 1986, when snow fell a week earlier on Sept. 18. Before that, the earliest appearance of a winter wonderland at Crater Lake was Sept. 24, 1948.

"It looks like there were sharply higher values of snowfall above 6,000 feet," said meteorologist Shad Keene. "Crater Lake tends to get the brunt of all the precipitation, so the chance of them exceeding a forecast is higher than in most places. It'll really come down."

At elevations 6,000 feet and below, there was anywhere from 1 to 3 inches. "The higher elevations definitely got more than we expected," Keene said.

The snowfall resulted in the closures of Crater Lake's West Rim Drive, East Rim Drive, North Entrance and Pinnacles Road Wednesday, according to the park's website. The West Entrance and South Entrance off Highway 62, Highway 62's access to the park's headquarters, and park headquarters to the Rim Village remained open.

Igloo

Climate expert warns of impending global cooling crisis

IceAge
© Wikimedia Commons
A prominent climate scientist says the earth actually faces a global cooling crisis on the eve of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) release of its latest climate change report.

David Archibald, an Australian scientist and visiting fellow at the The Institute of World Politics (IWP) in Washington, D.C., said during an IWP presentation Wednesday that contrary to a perceived consensus among the scientific community, the planet's climate is not warming. Global temperatures have essentially remained flat in the last thirty years, he said.

While temperatures have increased by a modest 0.8 degrees Celsius in the last 150 years, that rise is unremarkable compared to previous increases in earth's history, he said. Temperature spikes have occurred for hundreds of thousands of years and were slightly higher in the Roman Empire and Medieval periods, he added, according to a Swedish study and data from ice cores in Vostok, Antarctica.

Additionally, about 80 percent of the warming that has occurred can be attributed to water vapor compared to about 10 percent for carbon dioxide, said Archibald. The IPCC's report, scheduled for release Friday, is expected to state with 95 percent certainty that greenhouse-gas emissions generated by humans are responsible for 20th century warming.

Ice Cube

Arctic ice extent booming

Rapid Ice Growth Over The Past Six Days, says Steven Goddard website.

Green shows ice gain since September 18. Red shows ice loss.

Image
Also, see map showing the huge increase in western Arctic ice since this date last year.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/09/25/rapid-ice-growth-over-the-past-six-days/#comment-275941

Thanks to Ron de Haan for this link