© Reuters/Toby Melville
MI6 building in London • August 25, 2010
MI6 building in London • August 25, 2010
Larry Johnson, an ex-CIA analyst, writes "I no longer hold clearances and have not had access to the classified intelligence assessments. However, I have heard that the finished intelligence being supplied to U.S. policymakers continues to declare that Russia is on the ropes - and their economy is crumbling. Also, analysts insist that the Ukrainians are beating the Russians".
Johnson responds that - lacking valid human sources - "western agencies are almost wholly dependent today on 'liaison reporting'" (i.e., from 'friendly' foreign intelligence services), without doing 'due diligence' by cross-checking discrepancies with other reporting.
In practice, this largely means western reporting simply replicates Kiev's PR line. But there does occur a huge problem when marrying Kiev's output (as Johnson says) to UK reports - for 'corroboration'.
The reality is UK reporting itself is also based on what Ukraine is saying. This is known as false collateral - i.e., when that which is used for corroboration and validation actually derives from the same single source. It becomes - deliberately - a propaganda multiplier.
In plain words however, all these points are 'red herrings'. Bluntly, so-called western 'Intelligence' is no longer the sincere attempt to understand a complex reality, but rather, it has become the tool to falsify a nuanced reality in order to attempt to manipulate the Russian psyche towards a collective defeatism (in respect not just to the Ukraine, but to the idea that Russia should remain as a sovereign whole).
And - to the extent that 'lies' are fabricated to accustom the Russian public to inevitable defeat - the obverse edge clearly is intended to train the western public towards the 'groupthink' that victory is inevitable. And that Russia is an 'unreformed evil Empire' which threatens all Europe.
This is no accident. It is highly purposeful. It is behavioural psychology at work. The 'head-spinning' disorientation created throughout the Covid pandemic; the constant rain of 'data-driven' model analysis, the labelling of anything critical of the 'uniform messaging' as anti-social disinformation - enabled western governments to persuade their citizens that 'lockdown' was the only rational answer to the virus. It was not true (as we now know), but the 'pilot' behavioural nudge-psychology trial worked better - better even than its own architects had imagined.
Comment: Ukraine denies the anonymous accusation, naturally. The Germans are saying it's no use speculating on such "hypothetical" scenarios. (You see? Business as usual as long as there is room for doubt.) As for the Kremlin, Peskov has labeled the reporting a diversion and a "coordinated media hoax."