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Oil prices turned to a gain Friday after Iran poured cold water on growing market hopes for a near-term agreement with the United States, reminding traders yet again that optimism around diplomacy and reality on the ground are not always moving in the same direction.
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said Friday that Tehran could not necessarily say an agreement was close, according to Tasnim. The comments followed days of mixed messaging from both sides and reinforced a pattern oil traders know well by now: markets rally on diplomatic headlines, then spend the next day trying to determine whether anything actually changed.
A senior Iranian source had earlier told Reuters that some gaps had narrowed, but no agreement had been reached. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also pointed to "some good signs" while making clear that any Iranian effort to restrict movement through the Strait of Hormuz would remain a red line.
Six weeks into the ceasefire, traders appear reluctant to price in major diplomatic progress unless they see some more definitive proof. While markets repeatedly move on headlines, they do tend to snap back once optimism outruns reality.
The stakes remain enormous. Physical oil markets are tightening, inventories continue falling, and elevated fuel prices are feeding broader inflation concerns across major economies.
Adding another layer of anxiety, ADNOC's chief executive warned this week that full oil flows through Hormuz may not return until at least early 2027, even if hostilities ended immediately.

...there is, I think, an overwhelming consensus that excessive screen time can harm children and young people and we need to call this out unflinchingly rather than passively wait for someone else to prove causation".Which is a pretty neat summary of how our political system works in general, and certainly in this case: We don't know if there's even a problem yet, but by God we're gonna do something about it.
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