Solar Cycle 25 sunspot count exceeds expectations for 15 straight months - NOAA

Space Weather
Wed, 12 Jan 2022 15:45 UTC

New sunspot counts from NOAA confirm that the young solar cycle is outperforming the official forecast. You are here:

See the complete labeled plot or play with an interactive version from NOAA.

Sunspot counts have exceeded predictions for 15 straight months. The monthly value at the end of December 2021 was more than twice the forecast, and the highest in more than 5 years.

The "official forecast" comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and International Space Environmental Services (ISES). Using a variety of leading indicators, the Panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 as a relatively weak cycle, similar in magnitude to its predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be stronger.

Sky watchers have already noticed the change. "We are definitely seeing the effects on the ground in the Arctic!" reports Chad Blakley of the Swedish tour guide service Lights over Lapland. "Auroras now are the best in years."

(A) The first X-flare of Solar Cycle 25 on July 3, 2021; (B) A radio blackout caused by an X-flare on Oct. 28, 2021; (C) Auroras over Wisconsin photographed by Marybeth Kiczenski on Nov. 4, 2021.

Indeed, geomagnetic activity has nearly tripled since the new solar cycle began. In 2020, the first full year of Solar Cycle 25, there were 9 days with at least minor (G1-class) geomagnetic storms. That number skyrocketed to 25 days in 2021. One of those "storm days" (Nov. 4, 2021) was a borderline G4-class (severe) event with auroras sighted as far south as California and New Mexico.

Another sign of increasing solar activity is the X-flare. X-flares are the most powerful type of solar flare. They can cause strong radio blackouts, pepper Earth's atmosphere with energetic particles, and herald intense geomagnetic storms. The sun produced zero of these flares from late 2017 until mid-2021. Solar Cycle 25 busted the drought on July 3, 2021, with an X1.6 category explosion, followed by an X1-flare on Oct. 28, 2021.

Comment: Interestingly, two particularly memorable events occurred within 24 hours of the X-flare:

• Undersea gas pipeline rupture causes fire in Gulf of Mexico (3rd July 2021)
• Huge explosion filmed in Caspian Sea, officials speculate oil rig fire or mud volcano - UPDATE: Footage of 'new island' formed in aftermath released (4th July 2021)

Two down, 98 to go? Typical 11-year solar cycles produce more than 100 X-flares during the years around Solar Max. Stay tuned for updates as Solar Cycle 25 intensifies.

Comment: On our planet we've seen a rise in unusual phenomena, extreme weather and increasingly erratic seasons, meanwhile an uptick in unusual activity has also been documented occurring in our solar system, and beyond:

• Volcanoes, Earthquakes And The 3,600 Year Comet Cycle
• Solar Cycle 25: Is a Termination Event imminent?
• Sott Exclusive: Nemesis, not 'Nibiru' - Clarifying mainstream reports about 'a large ninth planet' that periodically sends comets our way
• Impact flash on Jupiter captured on video by amateur astronomers
• Betelgeuse is neither as far nor as large as once thought
• Recap: The changing jet stream and global cooling
• Little Ice Age triggered by unusually warm period, unprecedented cold struck within 20 years

Also check out SOTT radio's:

• Behind the Headlines: Earth changes in an electric universe: Is climate change really man-made?
• Adapt 2030 Ice Age Report: Interview with Laura Knight-Jadczyk and Pierre Lescaudron
• MindMatters: The Holy Grail, Comets, Earth Changes and Randall Carlson