covid sign uk
© REUTERS/Phil Noble
Cars drive past a sign about COVID-19 measures, amid the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Manchester, Britain
Government scientists have predicted that the second Covid-19 wave could be even deadlier than the first with a "lower but longer peak."

Downing Street is supposedly working on the assumption that the death toll during the second wave this winter is going to be worse than that experienced by Britain in the spring.

uk covid forecast
The death rate is set to peak at a lower overall number than seen earlier in 2020.


Comment: They know they can't show a second spike, because the curve is so comparatively flat. So they imagine it will last much longer - with absolutely no evidence. Pathetic.


However, deaths are set to stay at the same level for weeks or even months on end.

If the analysis of the second wave is correct, it will mean that the coronavirus death toll could stay steady for longer than it did in March and April.

And gloomy scientists say all of England will need to be under severe tier three Covid restrictions by mid-December.

It has dashed Boris Johnson's hopes of a Christmas reprieve from lockdown rules.

Meanwhile, a police chief has warned cops will be able to burst in on festive family gatherings if Covid rules are being broken.

A source told the Telegraph: "It's going to be worse this time, more deaths.

"That is the projection that has been put in front of the Prime Minister, and he is now being put under a lot of pressure to lockdown again."


Comment: 'Projection' = total guess divorced from all common sense.


The analysis from Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has caused government advisors to push Boris Johnson to take more drastic measures to control the virus.

The Sun has also revealed that the ­latest government modelling overseen by chief scientist Sir Patrick Vallance shows more than 25,000 will be in hospital with the virus by the end of November.

This comes as Britain has suffered its highest daily Covid death toll for more than five months yesterday - after 367 more people lost their lives to the virus.
uk covid deaths

The Sun's caption: Yesterday was the darkest day for fatalities since May
Another 22,885 people have also tested positive for coronavirus overnight as the country battles a second spike.

Yesterday's deaths figure means, on average, 200 coronavirus deaths have been reported every day in the UK over the last week.


Comment: Total nonsense.






Dr Yvonne Doyle, the medical director of Public Health England, said: "We continue to see the trend in deaths rising, and it is likely this will continue for some time.

"Each day we see more people testing positive and hospital admissions increasing.

"Being seriously ill enough from the infection to need hospital admission can sadly lead to more Covid-related deaths."

Last week, the UK recorded its biggest ever infection rise of 26,688 on Wednesday.

In Scotland, where a new five-stage lockdown plan has been revealed, 1,327 new cases were recorded, and 25 more people died.

And in Wales, which is on the fourth full day of a national firebreak lockdown, 1,207 people have tested positive overnight - and seven more have died with the virus.

So far Greater Manchester, South Yorkshire, Lancashire, Liverpool City region, Warrington, Nottingham and parts of Nottinghamshire have all been pushed into the highest level of Covid restrictions.

However, a new study has suggested that Britain is "miles off" achieving coronavirus herd immunity.

Scientists at Imperial College London said immunity is "waning" and noted a 26 per cent drop in positive antibody tests in three months.

In a briefing with journalists, Professor Helen Ward, who worked on the study, said their findings suggest the UK is a "long way" from reaching herd immunity.

She said: "Even at best, (in the first round of the study) 94 per cent of the population remained not likely protected, and now that has declined to over 95 per cent of the population who don't have evidence of antibodies.

"So I think we are a long, long way from any idea that the population will be protected by other people."


Comment: What is Ward smoking? All the evidence suggests high levels of natural immunity. Best estimates for herd immunity are 10-20% of the population.


On Tuesday, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said Europe's daily Covid deaths had risen by almost 40 per cent in a week.