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"India has given proof many times seeking action against Jaish-e-Mohammed and others at terror camps so big, that they can train hundreds of jihadis and terrorists at any given time," Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale told reporters on Tuesday after Indian jets carried out a "preemptive" bombing raid across its neighbor's border, targeting the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) jihadist group.Pakistan's FM says they are "ready to respond to any Indian misadventure":
The minister said the jets successfully destroyed the "biggest" JeM training camp near the city of Balakot in Pakistan's northeastern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province.
The government received "very credible intelligence info" that JeM was planning terrorist attacks in India, which made the airstrike "absolutely necessary," Gokhale stated.
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan convened an emergency meeting in Islamabad to review the developing situation, Radio Pakistan reported.The Chinese government commented:
Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi accused India of causing a deterioration of the situation in the region, saying that Pakistan reserves the right to respond to India's actions.
The minister stated that the people of Pakistan are supporting the national armed forces, which are capable of responding to any "misadventures" by it eastern neighbor. The minister said he hopes that "better sense" will prevail in India.
The country's national security committee later in the day said Pakistan will respond to the incident at the "time and place of its choosing."
The prime minister's office said that Imran Khan will "engage global leadership to expose irresponsible Indian policy" in a statement condemning the incursion.
The Pakistani military downplayed the importance of the rare cross-border air incursion, saying Indian warplanes dropped their payload while being chased away by Pakistani fighter jets and that the munitions caused no casualties or damage on the ground.
"India and Pakistan are both important countries in South Asia. Sound relations and cooperation serve the interest of both countries for peace and stability in South Asia," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang said at a briefing in Beijing Tuesday.UPDATES: India confirms shooting down Pakistani jet.
"We hope the two countries can keep restraint and do more to improve bilateral relations," he added.
The Indian Air Force has confirmed that one of its MIG-21 Bison aircraft has shot down a Pakistan Air Force F-16. The news comes two days after the PAF claimed it shot down two Indian planes over the disputed territory of Kashmir.India justified its air strike citing the US raid to capture bin Laden:
IAF Air Vice Marshal RGK Kapoor told reporters on Thursday that the Pakistani aircraft was downed after intruding into Indian territory. Kapoor said that the plane was one of several Pakistani aircraft that dropped bombs in Indian territory, but caused no damage.
Indian jets bombed targets in the Pakistani-controlled part of Kashmir, claiming that Islamabad had done nothing to crack down on the terrorist group had carried out the Pulwama suicide attack killing 42 Indian security officers earlier this month.
Pakistan responded by shooting down at least one Indian bomber and capturing its pilot. India acknowledged the loss but said it had shot down a Pakistani aircraft as well.
Pakistan had previously denied using any of its F-16 aircraft in the attack, but the IAF displayed the twisted remnants of a US-made AMRAAM missile it says "conclusively shows" an F-16 was used.
Recalling the 2011 US operation to kill Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, an Indian minister said New Delhi is able to carry out a similar raid. The statement comes amid a simmering conflict that saw tit-for-tat action over Kashmir.India and Pakistan attempt to defuse the situation while saving face:
"I remember when US Navy Seals went to Abbottabad [Pakistan] to kill [Al-Qaeda leader] Osama bin Laden, then why can't India?" Arun Jaitley, India's finance minister was quoted as saying by local media. He said such a raid "used to be only an imagination, a wish, a frustration and disappointment,"adding, "but it's possible today."
Jaitley, who was defense minister until late 2017, was speaking just a day after a series of artillery shellings and air encounters over contested Kashmir. New Delhi said its Air Force engaged and shot down a Pakistani aircraft (presumably an F-16) but lost their own MiG-21 fighter as well. Pakistan, in turn captured an ejected MiG pilot, posting a photo of him in custody.
A major showdown between the two states risks bringing the world on the brink of a destructive nuclear war, a dire perspective even if limited to the densely populated South Asia. Understandably, both sides want each other to show restraint, - but neither is willing to make the first move.Pakistan makes a gesture towards deconfliction, offering to release a captured pilot on Friday:
"Pakistan doesn't have a desire for war, but when it is imposed there is no choice left for the Muslims," Masood said, arguing that it is India's call to diffuse the tensions.
Sikri said that India, which is a far superior power militarily, does not want war either, but said that he believes Islamabad should take the first step to resolving the dispute - in the form of the "immediate return" of the captured Indian pilot.
"India's response has been restrained but if provocations continue I think it may become difficult," Sikri admitted, noting that while he hopes that "cooler heads will prevail" the situation can as well "go out of hand."
Islamabad is ready to hand over a pilot captured after an Indian jet was downed over Kashmir if the move will help defuse tensions which have pushed the neighbors close to war, Pakistan's Foreign Minister has said.The US is caught in the middle of the dispute, and China doesn't need another conflict near its borders:
"If there is de-escalation with the return of this [Indian] pilot, Pakistan is willing to consider this. We are ready for all positive engagement," Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi was quoted by Pakistani Geo TV on Thursday.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan is also willing to talk to Indian premier Narendra Modi "to extend an invitation of peace," the top diplomat said. The Indian side is yet to respond to the offer. Claiming Islamabad has been calling for peace since the outbreak of hostilities, Qureshi said, "If India wants to talk about terrorism then we are ready."
Beijing and Delhi have frequently butted heads in the past, among other things about the Aksai Chin region of Kashmir claimed by India but controlled by China since 1962. China has developed a military alliance with Pakistan since the 1970s, with Beijing currently one of Islamabad's major trading partners and the largest supplier of weapons.Russia offers to mediate:
This has led some Russian scholars to speculate that the US might tacitly approve of the current conflict as a way to keep China away from building up its maritime strength in the Pacific.
"The US is interested to have China get involved in a maximum number of conflicts," Aleksey Kupriyanov, a researcher at the Moscow-based Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told RT. "Any conflict would slow down Chinese economic growth, which would mean less danger for the US hegemony in the Pacific."
Kupriyanov believes China will try not to interfere in the dispute, balancing the relations with its old ally Pakistan and India, seen as an important new trade partner.
Smruti S. Pattanaik, research fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, also believes China will not meddle, but said Beijing could use its influence to make it clear to Islamabad that terrorism will not be tolerated.
"At the moment de-escalation is not plausible. For any de-escalation Pakistan has to take visible action against terror groups,"Pattanaik told RT, referring to the jihadist Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), which India accuses Pakistan of harboring.
US can't afford to take sides
The rapidly escalating conflict has raised alarm in the US, coming just as the Trump administration was focusing on the second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Hanoi.
"[US] foreign policy leaders are very much focused on what's happening in Vietnam and we don't know if there is enough attention being put on the India-Pakistan issue, which in my view presents a real risk of a crisis right now," Manpreet Singh Anand, former deputy assistant secretary for South Asia in the State Department, told CNBC.
Washington has been wooing New Delhi for the past several years, going so far as to rename its Pacific Command to "Indo-Pacific" and signing weapons deals with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government, hoping to use India as a regional counterweight to China.
"If India gets bogged down by South Asian conflict, then it cannot participate in broader foreign policy matters. With the rise of China, the US wants India to play a bigger role in Asian policy," said Rick Rossow of the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS).
However, if Washington backs India, Pakistan could retaliate against US interests - such as continued supply of US troops in Afghanistan, Rossow pointed out.
Further complicating things is the fact that both the US and Saudi Arabia have courted Pakistan as a launching pad for hostilities against the neighboring Iran, but neither country wants a conflict with India at the moment.
Moscow would be ready to host negotiations between New Delhi and Islamabad, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said as tensions flare in the contested region of Kashmir.UPDATE 1/3/2019: Pakistan partially reopens its air space
The top diplomat made it clear that the Kremlin will not hesitate to help ease hostilities between the perennial rivals amid the latest escalation.
"If they [India and Pakistan] wish to, then certainly yes," Russian FM said, after being asked whether Russia is ready to provide a place for talks.
Lavrov's words were elaborated by Russian FM spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, who said the standoff involving two nuclear-armed nations needs a political and diplomatical solution. The Russian FM representative also urged both parties to show restraint.
India launched an air raid on the Pakistani-controlled territory on Tuesday. New Delhi said the strikes targeted a terrorist camp of the Jaish-e-Mohammed militant group, which claimed responsibility for the February 14 suicide bombings that killed over 40 Indian police officers.
Pakistan has resumed commercial flights from major cities including Karachi, Islamabad, Quetta, and Peshawar, the Civil Aviation Authority tweeted on Friday.
However certain restrictions will remain in place until March 4, officials warned in a separate tweet.
Pakistan closed its airspace on February 27 following the aerial encounters between Islamabad and New Delhi in the disputed region of Kashmir. India also shut down airports on its side of the UN-mandated Line of Control.
The flight ban closed an important air route from Europe to Asia, leaving thousands of people stranded in airports across the world as major airlines had to reroute, delay, or cancel their flights.
It is unlikely to turn out well for several reasons: 1.) India has no AIPAC-equivalent organization to make the US India's fawning lap-dog that deters any return attacks, 2.) Pakistan has nuclear teeth with which it can inflict much damage in return, and 3.) India has another neighbor with teeth (China) who is likely to take a dim view of India's actions and can also inflict great damage.
How this plays out in the medium-to-long-term will be interesting to watch.