Welcome to Sott.net
Tue, 22 Jun 2021
The World for People who Think

Extreme Temperatures

Snowflake Cold

German Professor: IPCC in a serious jam... "5AR likely to be last of its kind"

Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
© www.kaltesonne.de
Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
And: "Extreme weather is the only card they have got left to play."

So says German Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, who is one of the founders of Germany's modern environmental movement, and agreed to an interview with NoTricksZone. He is one of the co-authors of the German skeptic book "Die kalte Sonne", which took Germany by storm last year and is now available at bookstores worldwide in English under the title: The Neglected Sun.

In Germany Prof. Vahrenholt has had to endure a lot heat from the media, activists, and climate scientists for having expressed a different view. But as global temperatures remain stagnant and CO2 climate sensitivity is being scaled back, he feels vindicated.

Snow Globe Xmas

Earth gains a record amount of sea ice in 2013

Earth has gained 19,000 Manhattans of sea ice since this date last year, the largest increase on record. There is more sea ice now than there was on this date in 2002.
Change in global sea ice area
© Unknown
timeseries.global.anom.1979-2008

Igloo

Better get your woollies!

No doubt about it. The Earth's climate is cooling!

One of the most prescient indicators clearly shows it, namely the Danish Meteorological Institute's daily mean temperatures for the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel. They have been measured for over 50 years which shows a long-term average of 90 days with the air temperature above freezing.

The Year 2013

The year 2013 has seen a dramatic departure from that routine. In 2013, the summer (above freezing temperatures) lasted for only 45 days, one half of the average number of days. Not only did the frost-free days start much later than on average this year, they also ended much earlier, see the figure below. In fact, the frost-free period seen this year was significantly shorter than in other year since 1958, when the recordings began.
Global Cooling
© Danish Meteorological Institute
Fig. Observed temperatures in the Arctic (latitude above 80° N) by day of the year in 2013 (red line), the long-term average (green line) and the freezing temperature (blue line); temperatures in degree Kelvin (K).
The new data corroborate other findings of no global warming for the last 18 years. In fact, not a single of the 20-plus climate prediction models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) even shows the recent temperature developments as within their model uncertainties. It begs the question: Is another ice age imminent?

Snowflake Cold

Ice age cometh: No warming left to deny... Global cooling takes over... CET annual mean temperature plunges 1°C since 2000

global temps
© www.woodfortrees.org
Global temperatures have fallen over the last 8 years.
Lately we've been seeing and hearing lots media reports of cooling and cold weather extremes. Global temperature data, such as HadCrut 4, show warming has disappeared altogether.

Looking at the data for the last decade or so, one thing stands clear: Global temperatures have been showing many more signs of cooling than warming. Already we are sensing that global temperature has lost the battle to stay up. The HadCrut data series above shows that cooling has gained the upper hand. Indeed warming is now in the history books, having died some 15 years ago.

Igloo

Rare solar cycle has cold implications for UK climate

NASA last week confirmed their prediction that the current solar cycle 24 is likely to be the weakest since 1906.

Intriguingly, the current solar cycle shows a striking similarity with solar cycle 5 which was also very weak, with the same double peak as the current cycle, and ran from approximately the mid 1790s to around 1810.

Solar cycle 6 was weaker still and stretched from around 1810 to the early 1820s.

Solar cycles 5 and 6 were so unusual that they were named the Dalton solar minimum after meteorologist John Dalton and coincided with a period of increasingly cold winters and poor summers.

This type of climate is a result of a jet stream that's positioned further south than normal - caused, it's thought at least in part, by the behaviour of the sun.

The mechanism as to why weak solar cycles may affect the position of the jet stream is poorly understood.

But a more southerly positioned jet stream is the reason why the UK has recently seen a return of cold snowy winters and a run of poor summers.

Cloud Grey

Physicists claim more evidence for link between cosmic rays and cloud formation

clouds
© Unknown
A Danish group that has reproduced the Earth's atmosphere in the laboratory has shown how clouds might be seeded by incoming cosmic rays. The team believes that the research provides evidence that fluctuations in the cosmic-ray flux caused by changes in solar activity could play a role in climate change. Other climate researchers, however, remain sceptical of the link between cosmic rays and climate.

The conventional view of climate scientists, as expressed in the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is that most of the warming of the Earth's surface over the last few decades is down to the atmospheric build-up of manmade greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. But Henrik Svensmark of the National Space Institute in Denmark believes that an effect related to the Sun's fluctuating magnetic fields may also play a major role in the warming.

For well over a decade Svensmark has studied how the energetic particles reaching Earth from deep space, known as cosmic rays, can influence the planet's climate as a result of changes to the Sun's output. The idea is that cosmic rays seed clouds by ionizing molecules in Earth's atmosphere that draw in other molecules to create the aerosols around which water vapour can condense to form cloud droplets. The low-lying clouds that result then have the effect of cooling the Earth by reflecting incoming sunshine back out to space. Since the Sun's magnetic field tends to deflect cosmic rays away from the Earth, the planet will be warmer when solar activity is high and, conversely, cooler when it is low.

Comment: For more on Henrik Svensmark's research see: The Cloud Mystery


Snowflake

Arctic summers will be ice-free 'by 2013'

ice sheet
© BBC News
The US NSIDC monitors Arctic sea ice extent on a five-day mean. The 16 September 2007 record low falls below the previous minimum set on 20-21 September 2005, by an area roughly the size of Texas and California combined, or nearly five UKs.
Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.

Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.

Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.

Ice Cube

Ice Age cometh: Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in a year; top scientists warn of global cooling

A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year - an increase of 60 per cent. The rebound from 2012's record low comes six years after the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013.

Instead, days before the annual autumn re-freeze is due to begin, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia's northern shores. The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year. More than 20 yachts that had planned to sail it have been left ice-bound and a cruise ship attempting the route was forced to turn back.

Some eminent scientists now believe the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century - a process that would expose computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming as dangerously misleading.

The disclosure comes 11 months after The Mail on Sunday triggered intense political and scientific debate by revealing that global warming has 'paused' since the beginning of 1997 - an event that the computer models used by climate experts failed to predict.
icesheet

Comment: This comes as no surprise to SOTT's regular readers since we've been disputing so-called global warming for years. Here's just a few recent articles to add to the mix:

Ice delays supply barge for Western Arctic communities
Tom Coburn: I'm a 'man of science' and the Earth is moving into a 'mini-ice age'
Record cold in parts of Alaska
South American countries gripped by snow


Ice Cube

Global warming expedition foiled by ice

Image
If you want to tempt fate, organize an expedition to one of the polar regions to call attention to the perils of global warming. The outcome is foreordained:

Severe weather conditions hindered our early progress and now ice chokes the passage ahead.

Our ice router Victor has been very clear in what lies ahead. He writes, "Just to give you the danger of ice situation at the eastern Arctic, Eef Willems of "Tooluka" (NED) pulled out of the game and returning to Greenland. At many Eastern places of NWP locals have not seen this type ice conditions. Residents of Resolute say 20 years have not seen anything like. It's, ice, ice and more ice. Larsen, Peel, Bellot, Regent and Barrow Strait are all choked. That is the only route to East. Already West Lancaster received -2C temperature expecting -7C on Tuesday with the snow."

Ice Cube

Wrong again! Siberian Arctic is not warming after all - July temperatures hardly different from those thousands of years ago!

Tundra in Siberia
© Dr. Andreas Hugentobler / Creative Commons 2.0 Germany
Siberian Arctic in summer.
Sebastian Lüning's and Fritz Vahrenholt's Die kalte Sonne site today writes about a new peer-reviewed study that shows that the Arctic is not warming quickly after all. For years alarmist scientists have told us that nowhere is warming happening faster than in the Arctic. Wrong again!

A study by an international team of scientists led by Germany's Potsdam-based Alfred Wegener Institute was published in September in the journal Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. It's a temperature reconstruction from the Siberian Arctic. By examining pollen, the scientists were able to determine the July temperatures for the transition zone between tundra and taiga over the last 12,000, i.e. the Holocene.