Comment: Not the Americans. They were 'playing war' with Iran that night, in which they essentially 'agreed' to let Iran conduct limited airstrikes, then immediately 'de-escalate'.

For the probable culprit, ask: Who is it that likes waging war by deception?

Comment: This article is the seventh in a series. For part 8, go here:

Natural Selection - The Jesus of Evolution

Comment: That's the end of the matter as far as international diplomacy is concerned.

But what remains to be answered is how an air-defense system operator mistook a Boeing 737 for a cruise missile.

Unless it was fiddled with in some way, the Ukrainian Airlines jet's transponder should have told the operator of the TOR-1M system that the object he was seeing on his radar screen is a Boeing 737.

Additionally, the plane's appearance on his screen should have in no way surprised him - it was the TENTH flight out of Tehran's Khomeini Airport that night. Prior to Flight 752, the last flight movement there was the departure - from the same runway and in the same direction - of QR8408 at 05:39 local time.

Why then was the air-defense operator surprised by this flight?

Comment: Iran says it may need help from French or Canadian experts to help it decode data from the damaged black boxes:

"Generally speaking, Iran has the potential and know-how to decode the black box. Everybody knows that," he said, adding that Iranian and Ukrainian experts would begin decoding the data on Friday.

However, "if the available equipment is not enough to get the content," Abedzadeh explained, Tehran will send the boxes to experts "from France or Canada."

"Then whatever is the result will be published and publicized to the world," he said.

Iran has also requested Boeing send a representative to join the investigation in Tehran.

Iran said on Wednesday it wouldn't hand the black boxes over to the US, preferring to do its own investigation. US media reports on Thursday cited anonymous Pentagon and intelligence officials claiming that Iran had itself mistakenly shot down the plane, which had just taken off from Tehran's busy Imam Khomeini airport.

Iran has dared Canada to show whatever they think they have regarding what happened to this plane, labeling the claims being bandied about so far as "psychological warfare against Iran":

© 2020 Maxar Technologies / handout via ReutersA satellite image showing the area where a Ukraine International Airlines plane crashed after take-off from Iran's Imam Khomeini airport

"All these reports are a psychological warfare against Iran," government spokesman Ali Rabiei said on Thursday. "All those countries whose citizens were aboard the plane can send representatives and we urge Boeing to send its representative to join the process of investigating the black box."

Foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi has meanwhile called on Canadian PM Justin Trudeau to share the intelligence he has claimed to have from "multiple sources" that the plane was shot down by a surface-to-air missile.

"We are calling on the Canadian Prime Minister and any other government that has information about the crash to hand it over to the investigation committee in Iran."

Trudeau's claim follows statements from UK PM Boris Johnson that his government is "urgently looking into" reports that the plane was shot down by a missile and speculation from US President Donald Trump that he had "suspicions" that "somebody could have made a mistake."

Sputnik reports on a video that reportedly captures the moment a missile downed the Ukrainian airliner:

© REUTERS / Handout

New footage published and "verified" by the New York Times shows what the Western outlet claims to be an Iranian missile striking a Ukrainian jet just moments after takeoff in Tehran, Iran.

Verified by the NYT can be considered as a warning to be skeptical.

The 19-second clip published by the New York Times on Thursday afternoon shows a small explosion in the sky of Parand in Tehran that is believed to be an Iranian missile hitting the Ukrainian Boeing 737-800 Flight PS752, which crashed early Wednesday morning after taking off from Tehran's Khomeini Airport.

A loud booming sound can be heard in the distance seconds after the flash.

Iran has maintained that the January 8 crash of the airliner, which claimed the lives of 167 passengers and nine crew members, was due to a technical error. Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council Oleksiy Danilov, on the other hand, said it may be attributable to three scenarios in addition to a possible technical malfunction: collision with another aircraft, a terrorist attack or an air defense missile strike.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced Wednesday that the crash "is not a topic for hype, likes in social networks, sensations and conspiracy theories," and called for patience, endurance and wisdom.

Tehran-based Fars News Agency cited the official as having said the rumors were also "scientifically impossible" and have "no logic," according to a translated tweet on the matter.

"There is complete coordination between all military and civilian sectors in Iran and at the same time," the outlet noted in a followup tweet referencing the aviation official. "There were dozens of Iranian and foreign planes flying over Iran's safe space."

While Iran has expressed interest in getting in contact with Boeing, the New York Times reported that the National Transportation Safety Board of the United States has to first discuss the matter with the State Department due to sanctions which restrict Boeing, a US-based corporation, from contacting Iranians "without an export license."

UPDATES

Bellingcat claims to have geolocated the video alleging to show a projectile hitting the jet. It does appear that the video was taken from a location west of the airport and south of the crash site (meaning the missile in the video is coming from west to east, roughly). However, some questions remain. Who took the video, and what inspired them to start shooting right before anything became visible? Bellingcat speculates there must have been a first missile that alerted them, but that is just speculation. Also, while the location and overall circumstances of the video seem to match up with the crash, the video itself has not been publicly verified (time taken, unmodified, etc.). In other words, the video may be a fabrication.


Another video allegedly shows the plane on fire for 56 seconds before crashing.


Western sources have accused Iran of "bulldozing" the crash site, removing important evidence and thus tampering with the scene. Ruptly filmed the site after these allegations, showing that while small pieces of debris and passenger belongings remain, wreckage has been removed. There's nothing abnormal there: the collected debris will be sorted for forensic analysis. A frontloader was used to move heavy pieces of debris, not "bulldoze" the site. During his press conference today, the head of the Iranian Civil Aviation Administration said, among other things:

• U.S. officials have asserted to have documents or other evidence that shows a missile incident. If they have such they are required to step forward and present it to the investigation.
• Video shows that the burning aircraft flew for 60-70 seconds. If the aircraft had been hit by a missile it would have dropped immediately and there would be a very large debris field like happened with flight MH17 in Ukraine.
• All countries affected by the accident can name a liaison person or take part in the investigation.

Ukrainian President Zelensky has called on the US, Canada and UK to provide the evidence they claim to have that the jet was downed by an anti-aircraft missile: "The theory about missile hitting the plane is not ruled out, but it's not confirmed as of today. Given the recent statements by countries' leaders to the media, we urge all international partners - primarily the governments of the United States, Canada and the UK - to provide data and evidence on this tragedy," Zelensky stated, revealing that he will discuss the investigation with the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo later in the day.

Ukraine's foreign minister again called for media to avoid speculation. (Same with the office of the prosecutor-general, who called for "politicians, the former prosecutors with no legal training or basic knowledge of criminal law and procedures to refrain from the shameless self-promotion on this tragedy.") He said Iran has been cooperative and that "the investigative team has accessed the black boxes retrieved from the wreckage. Iran has released video of the black boxes:

Short footage of the recorders was released by Iranian media on Friday. The black boxes — that are actually bright orange — are seen sitting inside a crate, handled by the officials with the Iranian Civil Aviation Organization (CAO).

The flight data recorder appears to be largely intact, yet it's quite charred and has a handful of visible dents in its body. The cockpit voice recorder, for its part, appears to be missing most of its assembly — only the data storage itself is seen in the crate.

Earlier, head of the CAO, Ali Abedzadeh, revealed that the black boxes were damaged during the crash and the country might seek foreign help — from Russia, Canada, France or Ukraine in particular. Extracting data from the flight data and voice recorders is expected to take up to three months, while the whole probe will take up to two years. The black boxes are expected to be "opened" on Friday, Iranian media reported.

The ICAO also called for avoiding speculation, adding that it has received a preliminary report from Iran on the crash. Iran now says it is certain the plane was not brought down by a missile.

That hasn't stopped NATO's Stoltenberg from saying there's "no reason to disbelieve" that Iran may have shot down the plane. Hey, we guess there's no reason to disbelieve Stoltenberg may hit his wife, either, if that's how he wants to play with logic.

The media is making much of the fact that flights to Tehran have been cancelled or rerouted since the incident, but flights into and out of Khomeini Airport operated normally that night:


Absent the astronomically huge coincidence of 'pure accident' that this plane crashed hours after such an historic event as Iranian airstrikes against the US military, this plane was deliberately downed.

UPDATES 11 Jan 2020

Well, holy shi'ite Moslems. Iran has today confessed to accidentally shooting down the plane with a missile launched from an air-defense system located near Tehran.



President Rouhani has also pledged to arrange "compensation payments to the victims' families, and ordered reforms of the country's air defense system to prevent similar disasters in the future."

The Commander of Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Amir Ali Hajizadeh, said during a press conference today that he "wished he was dead."

We can't blame him. It's a terrible mistake in such a high-profile information war.

Having confessed, Iran is now being fully cooperative in the investigation, announcing it will send the Boeing's black box to France for impartial investigation of its flight record content.

In the meantime, CCTV footage of the missile launch has surfaced:


So the Iranians are now saying that the Ukrainian plane was erroneously identified as an incoming cruise missile. That seems pretty bizarre. An airliner has a very different radar cross section than a cruise missile.

Why in the name of Allah did the Iranians not close their airspace to civilian flights that night??

UPDATE

After Iran's public acknowledgment of their responsibility for the tragedy, in which 11 Ukrainians were killed, Ukrainian President Zelensky demanded a full investigation and apology from Iran's leadership, as well as justice and compensation:

"We expect from Iran assurances of their readiness for a full and open investigation, bringing those responsible to justice, the return of the bodies of the dead, the payment of compensation, official apologies through diplomatic channels."

The Ukrainian leader also expressed hope that the probe into the tragedy would continue "without artificial delays and obstacles."

"Our 45 experts must be granted complete access and cooperation" during the investigation, Zelensky stressed.

Rouhani immediately offered his apology on behalf of Iran:

Tehran also vowed to lend "all the necessary assistance" to the Ukrainian expert group investigating the case and promised to bring all those responsible to justice. Zelensky welcomed the admission of guilt by Iran and said that it paved the way for further investigation of the matter "without any delays."

He also said that he expects Iran to "fully cooperate" with Ukraine "in accordance with international law."

Zelensky commented that the bodies of the flight crew should be brought back to Ukraine "as soon as possible," and called it a matter of "utmost importance." He added that Ukraine's foreign ministry would send a note to Iran detailing further legal steps aimed at resolving the issue between the two nations, including compensations.

Rouhani also held a phone conversation with the Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and promised to continue the investigation of the tragedy, Iran's IRNA news agency reported. The two leaders agreed that their nations should work together to clarify all the circumstances of this catastrophe.

Vigils and protests are taking place at universities across Iran (at least some of the Canadian-Iranians who died were academics from Edmonton, Alberta):

One banner among the many in the crowd read: "What is the costs of the war with the world? what is the cost of lying? #condolence to Iran."

Hundreds of people can be seen outside the University of Amirkabir taking to the streets and chanting "there should be a trial! Resignations are not enough!" and "constitution, referendum!"

Vigils and demonstrations were also held at Tehran and Sharif universities. The plane that was shot down carried many college students.

IRGC aerospace commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh revealed details of the mistake, pointing out that Iranian military were poised for full military conflict with the U.S. In other words, nerves were running on high. Here is his full statement:


And the following excerpt explaining the circumstances surrounding the mistaken decision to attack the jet:

In those moments when the incident happens, this air defence unit realizes that there is a target - which it identified as a cruise missile - at a distance of 19 kilometres. Now I'm explaining it on the map. This is the place where the air defence unit is deployed ... here is the city of Tehran ... This is the air defence unit deployed here at 00:00 (Wednesday), and was prepared. And here's the Imam Khomeini Airport. This plane takes off from here and takes this direction. It means this is the impact point. Given the information sent to this operator - that it is a wartime situation and a cruise missile has been fired - this poor guy identifies it as a cruise missile. Well at such a situation, he was obliged to contact, get approval. This is where this operator makes the mistake; but at that moment, his communication system was apparently disrupted - whether because of jamming systems or the high traffic. For that reason, he fails to contact [his commanders]. He had 10 seconds to decide; he could hit or not hit [the target]. Under such circumstances, he decides to make that bad decision; he engages, the missile is fired, and the plane is hit at this place. Then it returns through this track, and here's the point where it hits the ground.