Earth ChangesS

Evil Rays

Climate change: The sun and the oceans do not lie

Even a compromised agreement to reduce emissions could devastate the economy - and all for a theory shot full of holes

sun
© Associated PressThe sun controls our climate.

The moves now being made by the world's political establishment to lock us into December's Copenhagen treaty to halt global warming are as alarming as anything that has happened in our lifetimes. Last week in Italy, the various branches of our emerging world government, G8 and G20, agreed in principle that the world must by 2050 cut its CO2 emissions in half. Britain and the US are already committed to cutting their use of fossil fuels by more than 80 per cent. Short of an unimaginable technological revolution, this could only be achieved by closing down virtually all our economic activity: no electricity, no transport, no industry. All this is being egged on by a gigantic publicity machine, by the UN, by serried ranks of government-funded scientists, by cheerleaders such as Al Gore, last week comparing the fight against global warming to that against Hitler's Nazis, and by politicians who have no idea what they are setting in train.

What makes this even odder is that the runaway warming predicted by their computer models simply isn't happening. Last week one of the four official sources of temperature measurement, compiled from satellite data by the University of Huntsville, Alabama, showed that temperatures have now fallen to their average level since satellite data began 30 years ago.

Faced with a "consensus" view which looks increasingly implausible, a fast-growing body of reputable scientists from many countries has been coming up with a ''counter-consensus'', which holds that their fellow scientists have been looking in wholly the wrong direction to explain what is happening to the world's climate. The two factors which most plausibly explain what temperatures are actually doing are fluctuations in the radiation of the sun and the related shifting of ocean currents.

Igloo

Sea Ice - June 2009

June 2009 monthly sea ice data is now out for NH and SH. (Continuing prior sea ice post here.)

The global sea ice anomaly in June 2009 remained positive. Over the 1979-2009 period, there is zero trend in global sea ice anomaly, with a SH increasing trend offsetting a NH decreasing trend. June 2009 NH anomaly was not remarkable.
Sea Ice June 2009
© NOAA

Daily sea ice anomaly through July 9, 2009 are running at about the median of the past 7 years, about half a million sq km behind 2006-2007 but slightly ahead of 2008.

Bizarro Earth

Cool weather brings widespread outbreaks of Irish Potato Famine Blight to USA

While we don't have to worry about starvation like the Irish due to lack of crop diversity, it is interesting that we are seeing the same mold that caused the Irish Potato Famine widespread in the USA now. - Anthony

Potato famine disease striking home gardens in U.S.

Potato Blight
© ReutersDark brown lesions on stems, with white fungal growth developing under moist conditions, are characteristic.

By Julie Steenhuysen - Fri Jul 10, 5:22 pm ET
Chicago (Reuters) - Late blight, which caused the Irish Potato Famine of the 1840s and 1850s, is killing potato and tomato plants in home gardens from Maine to Ohio and threatening commercial and organic farms, U.S. plant scientists said on Friday.

"Late blight has never occurred this early and this widespread in the United States," said Meg McGrath, a plant pathologist at Cornell University's extension center in Riverhead, New York.

She said the fungal disease, spread by spores carried in the air, has made its way into the garden centers of large retail chains in the Northeastern United States.

"Wal-mart, Home Depot, Sears, Kmart and Lowe's are some of the stores the plants have been seen in," McGrath said in a telephone interview.

Compass

RSS Global Temperature for June 09, also down

Both Lucia and Steve McIntyre beat me on this story, so I'll defer to them. That's what I get for going to dinner with relatives last night and sleeping in.

Below is a plot from McIntyre showing the RSS data compared to UAH MSU. Both are down significantly in June 2009 with UAH MSU at .001°C
satellite data GLB 2009-06
© unknown

RSS is down from 0.090C in May 2009 to 0.075C in June 2009

Steve McIntyre writes a little parody of the issue: RSS June - "Worse Than We Thought"

Lucia actually expected RSS to climb and has an analysis here

Even NCDC's director Tom Karl has something to say about satellite data, read on.

Both of the datasets are available in raw form if you want t plot for yourself.

RSS (Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa)
RSS data here (RSS Data Version 3.2)

UAH (University of Alabama, Huntsville)
Reference: UAH lower troposphere data

Bell

AMO, The Key Global Climate Indicator

The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean, with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1F between extremes. These changes are natural and have been occurring for at least the last 1,000 years. [per NOAA].

The AMO index is calculated at NOAAPSD by using the Kaplan SST data set [5x5], determining the area weighted average over the North Atlantic over 0-70N and then detrending this data. The average AMO index or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index went negative or cool in January 2009 The average for the first 5 months this year is about [-0.06] . It has been cooling since 2003. In the past, the very cold seasons of North America and especially the East coast happened when the annual average AMO went cool [ as low as -0.405] in the 1970's.

It seems that this level of cool AMO may be several years off as the AMO cooling rate appears to be still slow. Back in 1964 it took about 8 years before the AMO went to [-0.3] by 1971. Review of other periods for similar rates of decline of the AMO show a spread of about 2-8 years. However the solar activity was much higher during 1964-1972 and things may cool down faster currently with extended solar minimum and anticipated low future solar cycles. If AMO does drop faster, then the cold weather like 1964-1979 may be the norm here much sooner and the East Coast will cool down as well as will the globe. The most sustained number of low AMO levels was during the cold spell of 1902 -1925 and again the 1970's.

Hourglass

The chills of Global Cooling

As cap-and-trade advocates tie their knickers in knots over so-called "global warming," Mother Nature refuses to cooperate. Earth's temperatures continue a chill that began 11 years ago. As global cooling accelerates, global-warmists kick, scream, and push their pet theory -- just like little kids who cover their ears and stomp their feet when older children tell them not to bother waiting up for Santa Claus on Christmas Eve.

Consider how the globe cooled last month:

-- June in Manhattan averaged 67.5 degrees Fahrenheit, 3.7 degrees below normal -- the coldest average since 1958. The National Weather Service stated July 1: "The last time that Central Park hit 85 in May...but not in June was back in 1903."

-- In Phoenix, June's high temperatures were below 100 degrees for 15 days straight, the first such June since 1913. In California's desert, Yucca Valley's June average was 83.5, 8.5 degrees below normal. Downtown Los Angeles averaged 74.5 degrees, five below normal.

-- Boston saw temperatures 4.7 degrees below normal. "This is the second coldest average high temp since 1872," veteran meteorologist and Weather Channel alumnus Joseph D'Aleo reports at Icecap.com. "It has been so cool and so cloudy that trees in northern New England are starting to show colors that normally first appear in September." Looking abroad, D'Aleo noted: "Southern Brazil had one of the coldest Junes in decades, and New Zealand has had unusual cold and snow again this year."

Bizarro Earth

Another Meteorologist Dissents: 'Does carbon dioxide drive the climate? The answer is no!'

Chief Meteorologist David Paul, a holder of the AMS (American Meteorological Society) Seal of Approval and the upgraded AMS CBM (Certified Broadcast Meteorologist) holds a degree in meteorology and is currently at Louisiana's KLFY TV10, dissented from man-made global warming fears in July 2009.

"Is there a climate crisis? I say, absolutely not!" Paul wrote in a July 8, 2009 article on KLFY TV 10's website. "Does carbon dioxide drive the climate? The answer is no! Natural cycles play a much bigger role with the sun at the top of the list," Paul explained. "There's much more driving the climate than carbon dioxide. There are so many variables at work, known and unknown, that not a single person, or computer model, can predict the future climate for sure," Paul wrote.

"Then there's El Nino Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, the Pacific-North American Teleconnection, Milankovitch forcing, ocean variations, and so on and so forth. Is there any way to model all these variables? Again, the answer is no! The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, has tried and failed!" Paul added.

Igloo

New Zealand: May the coldest on record, Niwa figures show

Wairarapa certainly played its part in the record-breaking chill that gripped the country during May, with Martinborough plunged into gloom courtesy of a paltry 92 hours of sunshine.

Niwa senior climate scientist Georgina Griffiths said May "broke records from one end of the country to the other - it was the coldest May on record", and there was nothing much to toast in the South Wairarapa wine village, which registered 69 percent of normal sunshine hours for May - the lowest figure for the town since records began.

"In May, Martinborough was gray, gloomy and depressing," she said.

"In June, the east coast strips of both islands were gloomy while sun shone around the rest of the country, like Hamilton which had record sunshine hours," Ms Griffiths said.

Below normal June sunshine (75 - 90 percent of normal) blighted coastal Otago, coastal Canterbury and the East Cape, she said.

It was wet too with double the normal rainfall for May (about 200 percent of normal) in Wairarapa, Canterbury and Otago while much of Northland, Auckland, Wellington and Southland got at least 150 percent of normal May rainfall.

Magnify

US: Searchers shovel Northwest dirt seeking giant worm

Image
© AP Photo/Dean Hare
The giant Palouse earthworm has taken on mythic qualities in this vast agricultural region that stretches from eastern Washington into the Idaho panhandle - its very name evoking the fictional sandworms from "Dune" or those vicious creatures from the movie "Tremors."

The worm is said to secrete a lily-like smell when handled, spit at predators, and live in burrows 15 feet deep. There have been only a handful of sightings.

But scientists hope to change that this summer with researchers scouring the Palouse region in hopes of finding more of the giant earthworms. Conservationists also want the Obama administration to protect the worm as an endangered species, even though little research has been done on it.

Hourglass

US: Chicago has its coolest July 8 in 118 years

For the 12th time this meteorological summer (since June 1), daytime highs failed to reach 70 degrees Wednesday. Only one other year in the past half century has hosted so many sub-70-degree days up to this point in a summer season -- 1969, when 14 such days occurred.

Wednesday's paltry 65-degree high at O'Hare International Airport (an early-May-level temperature and a reading 18 degrees below normal) was also the city's coolest July 8 high in 118 years -- since a 61-degree high on the date in 1891.